The role of market-implied severity modeling for credit VaR

En este trabajo proponemos el uso de mixturas de distribciones beta para modelizar la severidad impícita en el mercado. En nuestro análisis extraemos las tasas de recuperación de la cotización de los credit default swaps (CDS) en lugar de utilizar bonos que han impagado. La principal ventaja de obtener la estructura temporal implícita de tasas de recuperación de los CDS en lugar de utilizar los bonos impagados es que nos permite identificar tasas de recuperación para empresas con baja probabilidad de impago. Del análisis empírico se obtienen resultados que no permiten aceptar que una única distribución beta sea capaz de representar las tasas de recuperación implícitas mientras que la propuesta basada en mixturas de distribuciones beta si que es aceptada. Además, hay que destacar la importancia de utilizar esta metodología de ajuste por su importancia para una correcta estimación del Valor en Riesgo de crédito.In this paper we propose to use beta-component mixtures to model the market-implied severity. In our analysis we extract and identify recovery rates from credit default swaps instead of using defaulted bonds. The main advantage of extracting implied, endogenous and dynamic functions of recovery rates from credit default swaps versus using defaulted bonds is that it allows to identify recovery rates of low probability of default companies. We carry out an empirical analysis and our results show that a single beta distribution is rejected as a correct specification for implied recovery rates while a beta-component mixture is accepted. Futhermore, we highlight the importance of this modeling approach by focusing on its role for credit VaR

Variable selection for classification and forecasting of the family firm's socioemotional wealth

Socioemotional wealth (SEW) refers to those family-centered goals that are likely to have a major influence on the strategic decision-making process and performance of family firms. Many studies have used indirect indicators related to family involvement in ownership and management to measure SEW; meanwhile, others have developed scales to directly measure the level and importance of SEW in family firms. Limitations of both indirect and direct measures of SEW lead empirical research on SEW to be under threat. In the current study, we use random forests to identify the important indicators related to financial and economic decisions, as well as family-related measures, for explaining the family firms' SEW and to design a good prediction model using the smallest set of nonredundant indicators. Our results show that the model that exhibits the minimum out-of-bag sample (OOB) error rate includes variables that refer to the presence of family members in the firm's management positions, long-term nonfinancial debt, personnel expenditures, longterm financial investments, short-term financial debt, average storage period, and accounts receivables. For prediction, the model with a reasonably low estimated classification error includes only three variables, which refer to the presence of family members in the firm's management positions, long-term nonfinancial debt, and accounts receivables.Fundación Cajamurci

Fitting approach to liquid–liquid displacement porosimetry based on the log-normal pore size distribution

Producción CientíficaLiquid-liquid displacement porosimetry (LLDP) has been used to characterize several UF membranes in a wide range of molecular weight cut-offs (MWCO). A new method to convert porosimetric data into pore size distributions and related information has been developed based on assuming log-normal pore size distributions. The results of this are in good agreement with those from the customary data conversion algorithm (as derived by Grabar and Nikitine). The proposed method can also be used when a reduced number of experimental data points is available, leading to a significant reduction of data acquisition time needed to complete a reliable analysis.Junta de Castilla y León (programa de apoyo a proyectos de investigación – Ref. VA302U13

Ecoestabilidad femenina y malnutrición severa infantil: Evidencia a partir de intervenciones de ayuda humanitaria de Acción Contra el Hambre en países africanos, Asiáticos y Latinoamericanos

Introducción: Evidencias previas han reportado diferencias en la condición nutricional de niños y niñas pertenecientes a la misma comunidad y sometidos a idénticas condiciones de privación alimentaria. El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar las diferencias sexuales en prevalencia de malnutrición severa en menores de 5 años, sometidos a situación de crisis alimentaria. Métodos: Se analizaron datos recogidos en intervenciones de ayuda humanitaria llevadas a cabo por Acción Contra el Hambre entre 2002 y 2010 en 24 países. Dichas intervenciones se efectuaron en poblaciones de Africa, Latinoamérica y Asia que se encontraban en situación de grave crisis alimentaria. La muestra se compone de un total de 367.258 menores (186,156 niños y 181,102 niñas) con edad (E) entre 6 y 59 meses. Se midió el peso (P) y la talla (T) siguiendo la metodología SMART y se estimó la prevalencia de severo bajo peso (P/E <-3DE), desnutrición aguda severa (P/T <-3DE) y desnutrición crónica severa (T/E <-3DE) de acuerdo a los estándares de la OMS. Resultados: Para el total de la muestra, la proporción de niños con severo bajo peso fue de 9,8% en comparación al 7,3% de niñas (p <0.001). La desnutrición aguda severa afectó al 3,9% de los niños frente al 2,5% de las niñas (p <0.001). Las diferencias también fueron notables en la des-nutrición crónica: el 19, 5% de los niños frente al 15% de las niñas (p<0,001) presentaron crecimiento retardado. Conclusiones: Los resultados avalan la idea de la deno-minada eco-estabilidad femenina, de acuerdo a la cual, las mujeres serian menos sensibles a los factores externos que modulan el desarrollo ontogénico, mientras los varones se ve-rían más negativamente afectados por las agresiones medio-ambientales

Design of a GIS-database for the management of the Courel Mountains UNESCO Global Geopark (Spain)

X Congreso Geológico de España, 5-7 Julio 2021, Vitoria - GasteizSe ha desarrollado una base de datos en un sistema de información geográfica (SIG) para la gestión del Geoparque Mundial de la UNESCO Montañas do Courel (NO de España). El SIG incluye 66 capas de información topográfica, geológica, minera, biológica, arqueológica y etnográfica, que pueden ser combinadas entre sí para elaborar mapas temáticos adaptados a la finalidad y al usuario. Los mapas generados son empleados en actividades de divulgación, en el diseño de cartografías técnicas de apoyo a los gestores del Geoparque, en el desarrollo de estudios científicos y en acciones de geoconservació

Incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of second neoplasms in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia:the PETHEMA-PALG experience

The most important challenges in acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is preventing early death and reducing long-term events, such as second neoplasms (s-NPLs). We performed a retrospective analysis of 2670 unselected APL patients, treated with PETHEMA “chemotherapy based” and “chemotherapy free” protocols. Only de novo APL patients who achieved complete remission (CR) and completed the three consolidation cycles were enrolled into the analysis. Out of 2670 APL patients, there were 118 (4.4%) who developed s-NPLs with the median latency period (between first CR and diagnosis of s-NPL) of 48.0 months (range 2.8–231.1): 43.3 (range: 2.8–113.9) for s-MDS/AML and 61.7 (range: 7.1–231.1) for solid tumour. The 5-year CI of all s-NPLs was of 4.43% and 10 years of 7.92%. Among s-NPLs, there were 58 cases of s-MDS/AML, 3 cases of other hematological neoplasms, 57 solid tumours and 1 non-identified neoplasm. The most frequent solid tumour was colorectal, lung and breast cancer. Overall, the 2-year OS from diagnosis of s-NPLs was 40.6%, with a median OS of 11.1 months. Multivariate analysis identified age of 35 years (hazard ratio = 0.2584; p &lt; 0.0001) as an independent prognostic factor for s-NPLs. There were no significant differences in CI of s-NPLs at 5 years between chemotherapy-based vs chemotherapy-free regimens (hazard ratio = 1.09; p = 0.932). Larger series with longer follow-up are required to confirm the potential impact of ATO+ATRA regimens to reduce the incidence of s-NPLs after front-line therapy for APL.</p

Creación de nuevo recurso educativo virtual para estudiantes de grado en Farmacia

Depto. de Farmacia Galénica y Tecnología AlimentariaFac. de FarmaciaFALSEsubmitte

Bariatric surgery: evidence-based practical recommendations

[Resumen] La obesidad mórbida es, habitualmente, refractaria a los tratamientos convencionales, por lo que la modificación de hábitos dietéticos y de actividad física y/o el uso de fármacos consiguen pérdidas de peso parciales con habitual recuperación posterior. La cirugía bariátrica constituye una opción terapéutica para los casos de obesidad con elevado índice de masa corporal (IMC) asociada a comorbilidades, con buenos resultados a corto y largo plazo. El Grupo de Trabajo sobre Obesidad de la Sociedad Española de Endocrinología y Nutrición (GOSEEN) ha elaborado un documento con recomendaciones prácticas basadas en la evidencia para el tratamiento quirúrgico de la obesidad. La revisión se estructura en 3 partes. En la primera se definen los conceptos de obesidad y comorbilidades asociadas, los tratamientos médicos y sus resultados, las indicaciones y contraindicaciones para el tratamiento quirúrgico con los criterios de selección de los pacientes, el manejo pre y perioperatorio y la valoración de grupos especiales, como adolescentes y personas de edad avanzada. En la segunda parte se describen las distintas técnicas quirúrgicas, las vías de acceso y los resultados comparativos, las complicaciones tanto a corto como a largo plazo, la repercusión de la pérdida ponderal sobre las comorbilidades y los criterios para evaluar la efectividad de la cirugía. En la tercera parte se desarrolla el seguimiento postoperatorio, el control dietético en fases tempranas y más tardías tras la cirugía, y el calendario de control médico y analítico con la suplementación de los distintos macro y micronutrientes en función de la técnica quirúrgica empleada. Se incluye un apartado final sobre gestación y cirugía bariátrica, así como tablas y gráficos complementarios al texto desarrollado. La cirugía bariátrica sigue siendo un tratamiento discutido para la obesidad, pero los resultados en la corrección del exceso ponderal con mejoría en las patologías asociadas y en la calidad de vida confirman que puede ser el tratamiento de elección en pacientes seleccionados, con la técnica quirúrgica apropiada y con un correcto control pre y postoperatorio.[Abstract] Morbid obesity is usually refractory to conventional treatments. Consequently, weight that is lost by modifying diet and exercise and/or the use of drugs is usually later regained. Bariatric surgery constitutes a therapeutic option in obese patients with a high body mass index associated with comorbidities and achieves good results in both the short and the long term. The Obesity Working Group of the Spanish Society of Endocrinology and Nutrition has produced a document with practical, evidencebased recommendations for the surgical treatment of obesity. The review is structured in three parts. The first part defines the concepts of obesity and associated comorbidities, medical treatments, their results, and the indications and contraindications for surgical treatment, as well as the criteria for patient selection, pre- and perisurgical management, and assessment of special groups such as adolescents and the elderly. The second part discusses the different surgical techniques, approaches and comparative results, short- and long-term complications, the repercussions of weight loss on comorbidities, and the criteria for assessing the effectiveness of surgery. The third part discusses postsurgical follow-up, dietary control in the early and subsequent stages after surgery and the schedule for medical and laboratory follow-up, together with the different macro- and micronutrient supplements that should be used depending on the surgical technique employed. A final section is included on pregnancy and bariatric surgery, as well as tables and figures that complement the text. Although bariatric surgery continues to be a questionable treatment for obesity, the results correcting excess weight, with improvements in associated comorbidities and in quality of life, confirm that this option could be the treatment of choice in selected patients when the appropriate surgical technique and correct preand postoperative follow-up are employed

Healthcare workers hospitalized due to COVID-19 have no higher risk of death than general population. Data from the Spanish SEMI-COVID-19 Registry

Aim To determine whether healthcare workers (HCW) hospitalized in Spain due to COVID-19 have a worse prognosis than non-healthcare workers (NHCW). Methods Observational cohort study based on the SEMI-COVID-19 Registry, a nationwide registry that collects sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory, and treatment data on patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Spain. Patients aged 20-65 years were selected. A multivariate logistic regression model was performed to identify factors associated with mortality. Results As of 22 May 2020, 4393 patients were included, of whom 419 (9.5%) were HCW. Median (interquartile range) age of HCW was 52 (15) years and 62.4% were women. Prevalence of comorbidities and severe radiological findings upon admission were less frequent in HCW. There were no difference in need of respiratory support and admission to intensive care unit, but occurrence of sepsis and in-hospital mortality was lower in HCW (1.7% vs. 3.9%; p = 0.024 and 0.7% vs. 4.8%; p<0.001 respectively). Age, male sex and comorbidity, were independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality and healthcare working with lower mortality (OR 0.211, 95%CI 0.067-0.667, p = 0.008). 30-days survival was higher in HCW (0.968 vs. 0.851 p<0.001). Conclusions Hospitalized COVID-19 HCW had fewer comorbidities and a better prognosis than NHCW. Our results suggest that professional exposure to COVID-19 in HCW does not carry more clinical severity nor mortality

Systematic Collaborative Reanalysis of Genomic Data Improves Diagnostic Yield in Neurologic Rare Diseases

Altres ajuts: Generalitat de Catalunya, Departament de Salut; Generalitat de Catalunya, Departament d'Empresa i Coneixement i CERCA Program; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación; Instituto Nacional de Bioinformática; ELIXIR Implementation Studies (CNAG-CRG); Centro de Investigaciones Biomédicas en Red de Enfermedades Raras; Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa; European Regional Development Fund (FEDER).Many patients experiencing a rare disease remain undiagnosed even after genomic testing. Reanalysis of existing genomic data has shown to increase diagnostic yield, although there are few systematic and comprehensive reanalysis efforts that enable collaborative interpretation and future reinterpretation. The Undiagnosed Rare Disease Program of Catalonia project collated previously inconclusive good quality genomic data (panels, exomes, and genomes) and standardized phenotypic profiles from 323 families (543 individuals) with a neurologic rare disease. The data were reanalyzed systematically to identify relatedness, runs of homozygosity, consanguinity, single-nucleotide variants, insertions and deletions, and copy number variants. Data were shared and collaboratively interpreted within the consortium through a customized Genome-Phenome Analysis Platform, which also enables future data reinterpretation. Reanalysis of existing genomic data provided a diagnosis for 20.7% of the patients, including 1.8% diagnosed after the generation of additional genomic data to identify a second pathogenic heterozygous variant. Diagnostic rate was significantly higher for family-based exome/genome reanalysis compared with singleton panels. Most new diagnoses were attributable to recent gene-disease associations (50.8%), additional or improved bioinformatic analysis (19.7%), and standardized phenotyping data integrated within the Undiagnosed Rare Disease Program of Catalonia Genome-Phenome Analysis Platform functionalities (18%)