Techniques of Technological Forecasting

Technological forecasts can improve decisions through clearer delineation of future technological opportunities and threats. A review of the various methods applicable in thc area of technology is presented.The limitations of a particular technique must be clearly understood before it is applied. Some defence applications have also been discussed

Technological Forecasting Applications: Framework and Case Study on Combat Vehicles

The technological forecasting for predicting foreseeable scientific breakthroughs, refinements and discoveries has emerged as a serious professional activity in the recent years. In this era of highly competitive economy and cut-throat competitions, where technology change plays a pivotal role, the forecasting is of paramount importance to predict changes in advance and achieve the designated goals within specified time-frame so as to maintain the competitive advantage. The administration of military research and develop'ment has played a disproportionate role in the emergence of technological forecasting as a serious professional activity. This is one marketplace where an acute need for technological forecasting is felt as an adjunct to planning and execution, so as to maintain the muchneeded cutting edge over the adversaries by fielding superior weapon systems. In this paper, an attempt has been made to apply some of the techniques to futuristic combat vehicles. To generate greater confidence in the results, validation has been attempted through analytic hierarchy process. Based on the case study, a generalised framework is also proposed for technological forecasting and technology transfer

Selected Instruments for Management of Technology Development

Polska dysponuje pewnymi możliwościami rozwijania nowoczesnych technologii, także tych, które aktualnie znajdują się w pierwszych fazach cyklu życia (np. nanotechnologii, spintroniki, fizykochemii zjawisk powierzchniowych, robotyki itd.), i mają wysoki potencjał generowania zysku przy relatywnie niskich (bo niezwiązanych z samymi kosztami produkcji) nakładach inwestycyjnych i niższych wymaganiach, jeśli chodzi o wcześniej zdobyte doświadczenie. Wykorzystanie tych możliwości wymaga rozszerzenia o nowe podejścia tradycyjnego instrumentarium zarządzania technologią, opartego głównie na dorobku teorii racjonalnych oczekiwań. Wśród tych nowych podejść na szczególną uwagę zasługuje foresight i towarzyszące mu: cykl życia technologii i mapowanie, które są przedmiotem niniejszego artykułu

Will the Explosive Growth of China Continue?

The role of China in the world economy is constantly growing. In particular we observe that it plays more and more important role in the support of theworld economic growth (as well as high prices of certain very important commodities). In the meantime the perspectives of the Chinese economy (as well as possible fates of the Chinese society) remain unclear, whereas respective forecasts look rather contradictory. That is why the search for new aspects and modes of analysis of possible development of China turns out to be rather important for the forecasting of global futures. This article employs a combination of scientific methods that imply (a) the analysis at the level of Chinese economic model; (b) the analysis at regional level (at this level the Chinese economic model is compared with the regional East Asian model); (c) the analysis at the global level that relies on the modified world-system approach that allows to answer the question whether China will replace the USA as the global leader. It is important that the analysis is conducted simultaneously in economic, social, demographic, and political dimensions. As regards the analysis of specific features of the Chinese model as an especial type of the East Asian model (that is based on the export orientation, capital & technology importation, as well as cheap labor force), we note as organic features of the Chinese model the totalitarian power of the Communist Party and the immenseness of resources. As regards special features of the Chinese model, we note (in addition to “cheap ecology” and cheap labor force) and emphasize that China has a multilevel (in a way unique) system of growth driving forces, where, as opposed to developed states, the dominant role belongs not to native private capital, but to state corporations, local authorities and foreign business. This explains the peculiarities of the Chinese investment (or rather overinvestment), which determines high growth rate up to a very significant degree. A unique feature of the Chinese model is the competition of provinces and territories for investments and high growth indicators. As regards perspectives of the global hegemony of China, we intend to demonstrate that, on the one hand, economic and political positions of China will strengthen in the forthcoming decades, but, on the other hand, China, assuming all possible future success, will be unable to take the USA position in the World System. We believe that in a direct connection with the development of globalization processes the hegemony cycle pattern is likely to come to its end, which will lead to the World System reconfiguration and the emergence of its new structure that will allow the World System to continue its further development without a hegemon. Finally, the article describes some possible scenarios of the development of China. We demonstrate that China could hardly avoid serious difficulties and critical situations (including those connected with demographic problems); however, there could be different scenarios of how China will deal with the forthcoming crisis. We also come to the conclusion that it would be better for China to achieve a slowdown to moderate growth rates (that would allow China to go through the forthcoming complex transition period with less losses) than to try to return at any cost to explosive growth rates attested in the 2000s

Entanglements of creative agency and digital technology : a sociomaterial study of computer game development

Digital technology, with its distinctive characteristics that result from the fundamental process of digitalization that underpins it, is seen as fundamentally altering processes of creativity. However, we currently have limited understanding of creativity in relation to the development of digital technology. Computer game development, with its combination of esthetic, affective and cultural use features and highly sophisticated digital technologies, is a valuable setting for investigating these issues. In this paper, we explore how computer games are shaped through the interplay between the creative intentions of developers and the digital technologies involved in their production and playing. Drawing on in-depth studies conducted at three leading computer game development studios and a leading producer of the software system used in game development, this paper shows how the game developers' creative ideas for imagined novel game-playing experiences relate to a) the development of relevant digital technologies, and b) the emergence of new game development practices. The article goes on to propose a view of creativity as an on-going flow that, following an initial ‘creative impulse’, ripples through the sociomaterial entanglements of a particular setting, reconfiguring them in the process and spreading out in time and space in often unexpected ways

Exploring rail futures using scenarios: experience and potential

In 1995 the author of this paper undertook a scenario exercise for British Rail to identify priorities for rail science and technology developments under the new privatised regime. Four marketbased 2010 scenarios were developed for UK rail transport: 1) cost driven; 2) quality driven, 3)technology driven and 4) environmentally driven. These helped to identify areas of strategic R&D that were needed to improve rail’s competitiveness. It is now over a decade since this scenario exercise took place. This paper, updating an earlier review (Potter and Roy, 2000), revisits the 1995 scenarios and compares them to what actual market strategies emerged within the privatised railway industry. It explores whether the four scenarios did succeed in capturing the range of market responses that emerged from rail privatisation and what lessons this contains for the use of scenarios transport research

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

In recent years and accelerated by the economic and financial crisis, complex global issues have moved to the forefront of policy making. These grand challenges require policy makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of innovative solutions. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation. For example, when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. This paper investigates ways in which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges. By analysing several scenario cases, elements of good practice and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems