Bayesian network development for depots location selection with biomass supply system excellence

The renewable energy of the wood pellet market has taken great attention over the last few periods. However, the returns from the pellet business depend largely on how well the quality of biomass. The objective is to economically harvest pellets matching pellet standards set forward by the U.S. markets. The single-mindedness of this study is to develop a Bayesian network model to ensure a high-quality flow through the supply chain of the pallet industry in the top ten counties in Mississippi state. Multiple critical decisions (harvesting, storage, transportation, and quality control) of a biomass-to-pellet supply system could potentially affect the supply chain. The biomass-to pellet supply chain is an extremely challenging problem. For Multi-criteria Decision Making,we have developed criteria and sub-criteria associated with biomass-to pellet supply chain pellet. Experimental results specify that the biomass-to-pellet stream system is complex to the biomass quality parameters especially ash and moisture contents. Fifty were studied and ten locations were recommended and ranked based on affordability and resiliency of the availability of both corn stover and forest residues in the depot facilities. There are several anticipated and unpredicted energy turbulence in the Depots property. Pellets have been recognized as an alternative power approach to managing risk throughout power generation. These prospective users from using alternative power. This research proposes a solid foundation for in-depth future research to acquire detailed insights into how the Pellets depots location works in practice in Mississippi state to give a more substantial basis for strategic, tactical, and operational levels of possible risk profiles in Mississippi state

Integrated Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Analyses of Biomass Utilization for Value-Added Bioproducts in the Northeastern United States

A multi-stage spatial analysis was first conducted to select locations for lignocellulosic biomass-based bioproduct facility, using Geographical Information System (GIS) spatial analysis, multi-criteria analysis ranking algorithm, and social-economic assessment. A case study was developed to determine locations for lignocellulosic biorefineries using feedstocks including forest residue biomass and three energy crops for 13 states in the northeastern United States. In the entire study area, 11.1% of the counties are high-suitable, 48.8% are medium-suitable for biorefinery siting locations. A non-parametric analysis of cross-group surveys showed that preferences on biorefinery siting are homogeneous for experts in academia and industry groups, but people in government agencies presented different opinions. With the Maximum Likelihood test, parameters of distributions and mean values were estimated for nine weighted criteria. Social asset evaluation focusing on degree of rurality and social capital index further sorted counties with higher community acceptance and economic viability. A total of 15 counties were selected with the highest potential for biorefinery sites in the region. A mixed-integer linear programming model was then developed to optimize the multiple biomass feedstock supply chains, including feedstock establishment, harvest, storage, transportation, and preprocessing. The model was applied for analyses of multiple biomass feedstocks at county level for 13 states in the northeastern United States. In the base case with a demand of 180,000 dry Mg/year of biomass, the delivered costs ranged from $67.90 to$86.97 per dry Mg with an average of $79.58 /dry Mg. The biomass delivered costs by county were from$67.90 to 150.81 per dry Mg across the northeastern U.S. Considered the entire study area, the delivered cost averaged $85.30 /dry Mg for forest residues,$84.47 /dry Mg for hybrid willow, $99.68 for switchgrass and$97.87 per dry Mg for Miscanthus. Seventy seven out of 387 counties could be able to deliver biomass at $84 per dry Mg or less a target set by US DOE by 2022. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to evaluate the effects of feedstock availability, feedstock price, moisture content, procurement radius, and facility demand on the delivered cost. Our results showed that procurement radius, facility capacity, and forest residue availability are the most sensitive factors affecting the biomass delivered costs. An integrated life cycle and techno-economic assessment was carried out for three bioenergy products derived from multiple lignocellulosic biomass. Three cases were studied for production of pellets, biomass-based electricity, and pyrolysis bio-oil. The LCA was conducted for estimating environmental impacts on cradle-to-gate basis with functional unit of 1000 MJ for bioenergy production. Pellet production had the lowest GHG emissions, water and fossil fuels consumption, for 8.29 kg CO2 eq, 0.46 kg, and 105.42 MJ, respectively. Conversion process presented a greater environmental impact for all three bioenergy products. With producing 46,926 tons of pellets, 260,000 MWh of electricity, and 78,000 barrels of pyrolysis oil, the net present values (NPV) for all three cases indicated only pellet and biopower production cases were profitable with NPVs$1.20 million for pellet, and $81.60 million for biopower. The pellet plant and biopower plant were profitable only when discount rates are less than or equal to 10A study evaluated the environmental and economic impacts of activated carbon (AC) produced from lignocellulosic biomass was evaluated for energy storage purpose. Results indicate that overall “in-plant production” process presented the highest environmental impacts. Normalized results of life cycle impact assessment showed that the AC production had environmental impacts mainly on carcinogenics, ecotoxicity, and non-carcinogenics categories. We then further focused on life cycle analysis from raw biomass delivery to plant gate, the results showed “feedstock establishment” has the most significant environmental impact, ranging from 50.3$6.66 million, and annual operation cost was $15.46 million. The AC required selling price (RSP) was$16.79 per kg, with the discounted payback period (DPB) of 9.98 years. Alternative cases of KOH-reuse and steam processes had GHG emission of 15.4 kg CO2 eq, and 10.2 kg CO2 eq for every 1 kg activated carbon, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation showed 49.96% of the probability for an investment to be profitable in activated carbon production for supercapacitor electrodes

Landlabs: An Integrated Approach to Creating Agricultural Enterprises That Meet the Triple Botom Line

Global demand is increasing for food, feed, and fiber; for additional agricultural outputs, such as biofuels; and for ecosystem services, such as clean water and outdoor recreation. In response, new agricultural enterprises are needed that produce more outputs from existing lands while meeting the triple bottom line of high performance in economic, environmental, and social terms. Establishing such enterprises requires coordination and development within three critical domains: landscape configurations (i.e., types and arrangements of land uses), supply/value chains (i.e., processing and utilization), and policy and governance. In this essay, we describe our efforts, as land-grant university scientists, to support coordinated innovation and enterprise development in integrated place-based institutions, which we term landlabs. We describe our experiences in three prototyping efforts and outline key features of landlabs that are emerging from these efforts. Land-grant universities have a central and crucial role to play in organizing and operating landlabs

Mathematical Methods and Operation Research in Logistics, Project Planning, and Scheduling

In the last decade, the Industrial Revolution 4.0 brought flexible supply chains and flexible design projects to the forefront. Nevertheless, the recent pandemic, the accompanying economic problems, and the resulting supply problems have further increased the role of logistics and supply chains. Therefore, planning and scheduling procedures that can respond flexibly to changed circumstances have become more valuable both in logistics and projects. There are already several competing criteria of project and logistic process planning and scheduling that need to be reconciled. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that even more emphasis needs to be placed on taking potential risks into account. Flexibility and resilience are emphasized in all decision-making processes, including the scheduling of logistic processes, activities, and projects

Optimisation of Bioenergy Supply Chains

This thesis aims to address the optimal strategic design of bioenergy supply chains and provide insight into the future implications of these systems. Among the bioenergy supply chains, biomass-to-biofuel (as the main focus), biomass-to-bioelectricity and biomass-to-hydrogen routes are studied within the context of this thesis. To solve these problems, mathematical programming, especially mixed integer linear programming (MILP), models and solution approaches are developed. Regarding the biofuel supply chains, deterministic, spatially-explicit, static optimisation models are developed first based on single economic objective considering first and hybrid generation systems. A “neighbourhood” flow approach is also proposed for the solution of these models. This approach provides significant computational savings when compared to similar models in literature. The single objective modelling framework is then extended to a multi-objective optimisation model which considers economic and environmental objectives simultaneously. The multi-objective model can provide insight into the trade-offs between the two conflicting objectives. Finally, the single objective static model is further developed into deterministic and stochastic multi-period modelling frameworks to incorporate temporal effects such as change of demand and biomass availability with time as well as uncertainty related to different aspects such as biomass availability. Regarding the bioelectricity supply chains, a deterministic, spatially-explicit, static, multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed based on mixed integer nonlinear optimisation. This considers electricity generation through biomass enhanced carbon capture and storage (BECCS) systems. The model aims to address issues such as carbon tax levels required to incentivise decarbonisation in the power sector as well as the potential impacts of biomass availability and commodity (carbon and coal) prices. The biomass-to-hydrogen route is considered as one of the possible conversion pathways within a deterministic, spatially-explicit, multi-period model developed for the optimal strategic design of future hydrogen supply chains. A two-step hierarchical solution approach is also proposed to increase computational efficiency during the solution of the large scale problem. The model results provide insight into the optimal evolution of a hydrogen supply chain through time

Development of a Bayesian network model for assessing the resilience of biomass-based combined heat and power system

Due to the growing number of diverse power systems disruptions, including extreme weather events, technical factors, and human factors, assessing and quantifying the resilience of electric power subsystems has become an indispensable step to develop an efficient strategic plan to enhance the resilience and reliability of these systems and to endure the diverse interruptions. In this study, factors and sub-factors that may have either direct or indirect impact on the resilience of biomass-based combined heat and power systems are identified, and the interdependencies among them are determined as well. A Bayesian network model is implemented to quantify the resilience of a bCHP system, and the results are analyzed by applying three different techniques, which are sensitivity analysis, forward propagation analysis, and backward propagation analysis

Mobilizing Sustainable Bioenergy Supply Chains

Analysis of the five globally significant supply chains conducted by IEA Bioenergy inter-Task teams – boreal and temperate forests, agricultural crop residues, biogas, lignocellulosic crops, and cultivated grasslands and pastures in Brazil – has confirmed that feedstocks produced using logistically efficient production systems can be mobilized to make significant contributions to achieving global targets for bioenergy. However, the very significant challenges identified in this report indicate that changes by all key members of society in public and private institutions and along the whole length of supply chains from feedstock production to energy product consumption are required to mobilize adequate feedstock resources to make a sustainable and significant contribution to climate change mitigation and provide the social and economic services possible. Notably, this report reveals that all globally significant bioenergy development has been underpinned by political backing, which is necessary for passing legislation in the form of mandates, renewable energy portfolios, carbon trading schemes, and the like. The mobilization potential identified in this report will depend on even greater policy support than achieved to date internationally.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

Forest Products Trucking Industry in Maine: Opportunities and Challenges

Forest transportation from in-woods to the final point of utilization is one of the major components in forest harvesting operations in terms of economics, public visibility and safety. In many cases, the price of delivered wood products depends on the transportation distance. Transportation is also crucial in terms of ensuring the supply of demanded products on time. Globally, road transportation being the most predominant medium for forest products transportation, majority of research are focused on this subject. These scientific researches are of diverse nature; with main emphasis on improving the supply chain issues and minimizing cost of transportation, including road construction and maintenance. However, the scientific research focusing on overall challenges faced by forest transportation sector and their potential resolutions is scant. The aim of this study was to document and evaluate the problems associated with the forest tucking sector of Maine. The next objective was to validate potential solutions, obtained through literature, with the stakeholders in the state. The third objective was to develop a management guideline. The first step was an extensive scientific literature search related to secondary forest products transportation. A total of 131 scientific articles published from year 2000 to 2015 were collected and categorized into six different research themes. This helped in better understanding of the current trends and advances in the field. Supply chain issues and roads were the most studied research themes in this field; while trucking efficiency and safety bottomed the list. Followed by which, a cross sectional survey was carried out in a conference setting to document and rank the major challenges to the forest trucking sector in the state. The specific reasons behind the prevalence of those challenges were also discussed. The survey yielded 31.22% response rate and the major challenge for the state was regarded as availability of market and lack of skilled manpower. These challenges were also compared with the situation of other regions in the nation and world through literature and trade magazine analysis. For developing a management guideline with validated resolutions for the trucking related problems, a qualitative case study method with semi-structured interviews was implemented. The primary intention was to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on field level solutions. The stakeholders included forest managers, personnel from professional forestry societies, and trucking & logging contractors. Thirteen interviews were conducted, with each being audio recorded and later transcribed verbatim. The presented results included various solutions for specific problems related to trucking in Maine from stakeholders’ perspective. The key findings of this process also serve as a management guideline for forest trucking industry of Maine. This study is expected to support the understanding of challenges in general and fill the gap of knowledge regarding trucking in Maine. Land owning and managing, trucking, and logging companies would be able to use the results from this study to prepare trucking plans to support logistics based on given circumstances. These findings can be used as a baseline figure for future studies involving supply chain analysis for the logging industry

An Integrated Assessment of GIS-MCA with Logistics Analysis for an Assessment of a Potential Decentralized Bioethanol Production System Using Distributed Agricultural Residues in Thailand

Crop residues derived from post-harvesting process have been problematic due to an on-field incineration, which caused air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An appropriate utilization of those biomasses can improve the environmental situation and provide a substitute for fossil fuels. Therefore, this study intends to analyze how left-over agricultural residues should be valorized in the decentralized bioethanol production configuration. With integrated techniques of geographical information system and multi-criteria analysis (GIS-MCA), we identify suitable locations for exhibiting decentralized sites matching the geographical backgrounds in each region. Under the precondition of a complete utilization of the agricultural residues, we found optimal installation numbers 71 units of decentralized production in total through suitability analysis. Conducting the location–allocation model, it is possible to determine production scales from the collectable spatially distributed biomass and transportation distances. Under the presumed conditions of installing 1 to 25 units, the logistics cost and total capital investment can reach USD 1.17–2.46 L−1 and USD 1.17–6.93 L−1, respectively. The results from examining the technical potential and economic feasibility aspects are key to designing decentralized bioethanol production facilities and maximizing the utilization of agricultural residues in Thailand