Development of a Bayesian network model for assessing the resilience of biomass-based combined heat and power system

Abstract

Due to the growing number of diverse power systems disruptions, including extreme weather events, technical factors, and human factors, assessing and quantifying the resilience of electric power subsystems has become an indispensable step to develop an efficient strategic plan to enhance the resilience and reliability of these systems and to endure the diverse interruptions. In this study, factors and sub-factors that may have either direct or indirect impact on the resilience of biomass-based combined heat and power systems are identified, and the interdependencies among them are determined as well. A Bayesian network model is implemented to quantify the resilience of a bCHP system, and the results are analyzed by applying three different techniques, which are sensitivity analysis, forward propagation analysis, and backward propagation analysis

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