Risk assessment using transfer learning for grassland fires

© 2019 A new direction of risk assessment research in grassland fire management is data-driven prediction, in which data are collected from particular regions. Since some regions have rich datasets that can easily generate knowledge for risk prediction, and some have no data available, this study addresses how we can leverage the knowledge learned from one grassland risk assessment to assist with a current assessment task. In this paper, we first introduce the transfer learning methodology to map and update risk maps in grassland fire management, and we propose a new grassland fire risk analysis method. In this study, two major grassland areas (Xilingol and Hulunbuir) in northern China are selected as the study areas, and five representative indicators (features) are extracted from grassland fuel, fire climate, accessibility, human and social economy. Taking Xilingol as the source domain (where sufficient labelled data are available) and Hulunbuir as the target domain (which contains insufficient data but requires risk assessment/prediction), we then establish the mapping relationship between grassland fire indicators and the degrees of grassland fire risk by using a transfer learning method. Finally, the fire risk in the Hulunbuir grassland is assessed using the transfer learning method. Experiments show that the prediction accuracy reached 87.5% by using the transfer learning method, representing a significant increase over existing methods

Detection, Emission Estimation and Risk Prediction of Forest Fires in China Using Satellite Sensors and Simulation Models in the Past Three Decades—An Overview

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status

A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.Comment: 83 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

Satellite-Based Assessment of Grassland Conversion and Related Fire Disturbance in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Spruce beetle-induced (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby)) mortality on the Kenai Peninsula has been hypothesized by local ecologists to result in the conversion of forest to grassland and subsequent increased fire danger. This hypothesis stands in contrast to empirical studies in the continental US which suggested that beetle mortality has only a negligible effect on fire danger. In response, we conducted a study using Landsat data and modeling techniques to map land cover change in the Kenai Peninsula and to integrate change maps with other geospatial data to predictively map fire danger for the same region. We collected Landsat imagery to map land cover change at roughly five-year intervals following a severe, mid-1990s beetle infestation to the present. Land cover classification was performed at each time step and used to quantify grassland encroachment patterns over time. The maps of land cover change along with digital elevation models (DEMs), temperature, and historical fire data were used to map and assess wildfire danger across the study area. Results indicate the highest wildfire danger tended to occur in herbaceous and black spruce land cover types, suggesting that the relationship between spruce beetle damage and wildfire danger in costal Alaskan forested ecosystems differs from the relationship between the two in the forests of the coterminous United States. These change detection analyses and fire danger predictions provide the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (KENWR) ecologists and other forest managers a better understanding of the extent and magnitude of grassland conversion and subsequent change in fire danger following the 1990s spruce beetle outbreak

Fire models and methods to map fuel types: The role of remote sensing.

Understanding fire is essential to improving forest management strategies. More specifically, an accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of fuels is critical when analyzing, modelling and predicting fire behaviour. First, we review the main concepts and terminology associated with forest fuels and a number of fuel type classifications. Second, we summarize the main techniques employed to map fuel types starting with the most traditional approaches, such as field work, aerial photo interpretation or ecological modelling. We pay special attention to more contemporary techniques, which involve the use of remote sensing systems. In general, remote sensing systems are low-priced, can be regularly updated and are less time-consuming than traditional methods, but they are still facing important limitations. Recent work has shown that the integration of different sources of information andmethods in a complementary way helps to overcome most of these limitations. Further research is encouraged to develop novel and enhanced remote sensing techniques

Comparative study on machine learning algorithms for early fire forest detection system using geodata

Forest fires have caused considerable losses to ecologies, societies and economies worldwide. To minimize these losses and reduce forest fires, modeling and predicting the occurrence of forest fires are meaningful because they can support forest fire prevention and management. In recent years, the convolutional neural network (CNN) has become an important state-of-the-art deep learning algorithm, and its implementation has enriched many fields. Therefore, a competitive spatial prediction model for automatic early detection of wild forest fire using machine learning algorithms can be proposed. This model can help researchers to predict forest fires and identify risk zonas. System using machine learning algorithm on geodata will be able to notify in real time the interested parts and authorities by providing alerts and presenting on maps based on geographical treatments for more efficacity and analyzing of the situation. This research extends the application of machine learning algorithms for early fire forest prediction to detection and representation in geographical information system (GIS) maps

Advances in Remote Sensing-based Disaster Monitoring and Assessment

Remote sensing data and techniques have been widely used for disaster monitoring and assessment. In particular, recent advances in sensor technologies and artificial intelligence-based modeling are very promising for disaster monitoring and readying responses aimed at reducing the damage caused by disasters. This book contains eleven scientific papers that have studied novel approaches applied to a range of natural disasters such as forest fire, urban land subsidence, flood, and tropical cyclones

Review of the use of remote sensing for monitoring wildfire risk conditions to support fire risk assessment in protected areas

Fire risk assessment is one of the most important components in the management of fire that offers the framework for monitoring fire risk conditions. Whilst monitoring fire risk conditions commonly revolved around field data, Remote Sensing (RS) plays key role in quantifying and monitoring fire risk indicators. This study presents a review of remote sensing data and techniques for fire risk monitoring and assessment with a particular emphasis on its implications for wildfire risk mapping in protected areas. Firstly, we concentrate on RS derived variables employed to monitor fire risk conditions for fire risk assessment. Thereafter, an evaluation of the prominent RS platforms such as Broadband, Hyperspectral and Active sensors that have been utilized for wildfire risk assessment. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness in obtaining information that has operational use or immediate potentials for operational application in protected areas (PAs). RS techniques that involve extraction of landscape information from imagery were summarised. The review concludes that in practice, fire risk assessment that consider all variables/indicators that influence fire risk is impossible to establish, however it is imperative to incorporate indicators or variables of very high heterogeneous and “multi-sensoral or multivariate fire risk index approach for fire risk assessment in PA.Keywords: Protected Areas, Fire Risk conditions; Remote Sensing, Wildfire risk assessmen