Variable Capacity Utilization, Ambient Temperature Shocks and Generation Asset Valuation

This paper discusses generation asset valuation in a framework where capital utilization decisions are endogenous. We use real options approach for valuation of natural gas fuelled turbines. Capital utilization choices that we explore include turning on/off the unit, operating the unit at increased firing temperatures (overfiring), and conducting preventive maintenance. Overfiring provides capacity enhancement which comes at the expense of reduced maintenance interval and increased costs of part replacement. We consider the costs and benefits of overfiring in attempt to maximize the asset value by optimally exercising the overfire option. In addition to stochastic processes governing prices, we incorporate an exogenous productivity shock: ambient temperature. We consider how variation in ambient temperature affects the asset value through its effect on gas turbine’s productivity.Electricity generation asset valuation; overfire option; price uncertainty

Bayesian total evidence dating reveals the recent crown radiation of penguins

The total-evidence approach to divergence-time dating uses molecular and morphological data from extant and fossil species to infer phylogenetic relationships, species divergence times, and macroevolutionary parameters in a single coherent framework. Current model-based implementations of this approach lack an appropriate model for the tree describing the diversification and fossilization process and can produce estimates that lead to erroneous conclusions. We address this shortcoming by providing a total-evidence method implemented in a Bayesian framework. This approach uses a mechanistic tree prior to describe the underlying diversification process that generated the tree of extant and fossil taxa. Previous attempts to apply the total-evidence approach have used tree priors that do not account for the possibility that fossil samples may be direct ancestors of other samples. The fossilized birth-death (FBD) process explicitly models the diversification, fossilization, and sampling processes and naturally allows for sampled ancestors. This model was recently applied to estimate divergence times based on molecular data and fossil occurrence dates. We incorporate the FBD model and a model of morphological trait evolution into a Bayesian total-evidence approach to dating species phylogenies. We apply this method to extant and fossil penguins and show that the modern penguins radiated much more recently than has been previously estimated, with the basal divergence in the crown clade occurring at ~12.7 Ma and most splits leading to extant species occurring in the last 2 million years. Our results demonstrate that including stem-fossil diversity can greatly improve the estimates of the divergence times of crown taxa. The method is available in BEAST2 (v. 2.4) www.beast2.org with packages SA (v. at least 1.1.4) and morph-models (v. at least 1.0.4).Comment: 50 pages, 6 figure

A stochastic multi-scale model of HIV-1 transmission for decision-making: application to a MSM population.

BackgroundIn the absence of an effective vaccine against HIV-1, the scientific community is presented with the challenge of developing alternative methods to curb its spread. Due to the complexity of the disease, however, our ability to predict the impact of various prevention and treatment strategies is limited. While ART has been widely accepted as the gold standard of modern care, its timing is debated.ObjectivesTo evaluate the impact of medical interventions at the level of individuals on the spread of infection across the whole population. Specifically, we investigate the impact of ART initiation timing on HIV-1 spread in an MSM (Men who have Sex with Men) population.Design and methodsA stochastic multi-scale model of HIV-1 transmission that integrates within a single framework the in-host cellular dynamics and their outcomes, patient health states, and sexual contact networks. The model captures disease state and progression within individuals, and allows for simulation of therapeutic strategies.ResultsEarly ART initiation may substantially affect disease spread through a population.ConclusionsOur model provides a multi-scale, systems-based approach to evaluate the broader implications of therapeutic strategies

A Transiting Planet of a Sun-like Star

A planet transits an 11th magnitude, G1V star in the constellation Corona Borealis. We designate the planet XO-1b, and the star, XO-1, also known as GSC 02041-01657. XO-1 lacks a trigonometric distance; we estimate it to be 200+-20 pc. Of the ten stars currently known to host extrasolar transiting planets, the star XO-1 is the most similar to the Sun in its physical characteristics: its radius is 1.0+-0.08 R_Sun, its mass is 1.0+-0.03 M_Sun, V sini < 3 km/s, and its metallicity [Fe/H] is 0.015+-0.04. The orbital period of the planet XO-1b is 3.941534+-0.000027 days, one of the longer ones known. The planetary mass is 0.90+-0.07 M_Jupiter, which is marginally larger than that of other transiting planets with periods between 3 and 4 days. Both the planetary radius and the inclination are functions of the spectroscopically determined stellar radius. If the stellar radius is 1.0+-0.08 R_Sun, then the planetary radius is 1.30+-0.11 R_Jupiter and the inclination of the orbit is 87.7+-1.2 degrees. We have demonstrated a productive international collaboration between professional and amateur astronomers that was important to distinguishing this planet from many other similar candidates.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figures, accepted for part 1 of Ap

Malware in the Future? Forecasting of Analyst Detection of Cyber Events

There have been extensive efforts in government, academia, and industry to anticipate, forecast, and mitigate cyber attacks. A common approach is time-series forecasting of cyber attacks based on data from network telescopes, honeypots, and automated intrusion detection/prevention systems. This research has uncovered key insights such as systematicity in cyber attacks. Here, we propose an alternate perspective of this problem by performing forecasting of attacks that are analyst-detected and -verified occurrences of malware. We call these instances of malware cyber event data. Specifically, our dataset was analyst-detected incidents from a large operational Computer Security Service Provider (CSSP) for the U.S. Department of Defense, which rarely relies only on automated systems. Our data set consists of weekly counts of cyber events over approximately seven years. Since all cyber events were validated by analysts, our dataset is unlikely to have false positives which are often endemic in other sources of data. Further, the higher-quality data could be used for a number for resource allocation, estimation of security resources, and the development of effective risk-management strategies. We used a Bayesian State Space Model for forecasting and found that events one week ahead could be predicted. To quantify bursts, we used a Markov model. Our findings of systematicity in analyst-detected cyber attacks are consistent with previous work using other sources. The advanced information provided by a forecast may help with threat awareness by providing a probable value and range for future cyber events one week ahead. Other potential applications for cyber event forecasting include proactive allocation of resources and capabilities for cyber defense (e.g., analyst staffing and sensor configuration) in CSSPs. Enhanced threat awareness may improve cybersecurity.Comment: Revised version resubmitted to journa

Was UV spectral solar irradiance lower during the recent low sunspot minimum?

A detailed analysis is presented of solar UV spectral irradiance for the period between May 2003 and August 2005, when data are available from both the Solar Ultraviolet pectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) instrument (on board the pper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) spacecraft) and the Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instrument (on board the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite). The ultimate aim is to develop a data composite that can be used to accurately determine any differences between the “exceptional” solar minimum at the end of solar cycle 23 and the previous minimum at the end of solar cycle 22 without having to rely on proxy data to set the long‐term change. SUSIM data are studied because they are the only data available in the “SOLSTICE gap” between the end of available UARS SOLSTICE data and the start of the SORCE data. At any one wavelength the two data sets are considered too dissimilar to be combined into a meaningful composite if any one of three correlations does not exceed a threshold of 0.8. This criterion removes all wavelengths except those in a small range between 156 nm and 208 nm, the longer wavelengths of which influence ozone production and heating in the lower stratosphere. Eight different methods are employed to intercalibrate the two data sequences. All methods give smaller changes between the minima than are seen when the data are not adjusted; however, correcting the SUSIM data to allow for an exponentially decaying offset drift gives a composite that is largely consistent with the unadjusted data from the SOLSTICE instruments on both UARS and SORCE and in which the recent minimum is consistently lower in the wave band studied

Microarcsecond VLBI pulsar astrometry with PSRπ\pi II. parallax distances for 57 pulsars

We present the results of PSR$\pi$, a large astrometric project targeting radio pulsars using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). From our astrometric database of 60 pulsars, we have obtained parallax-based distance measurements for all but 3, with a parallax precision of typically 40 $\mu$as and approaching 10 $\mu$as in the best cases. Our full sample doubles the number of radio pulsars with a reliable ($\gtrsim$5$\sigma$) model-independent distance constraint. Importantly, many of the newly measured pulsars are well outside the solar neighbourhood, and so PSR$\pi$ brings a near-tenfold increase in the number of pulsars with a reliable model-independent distance at $d>2$ kpc. Using our sample along with previously published results, we show that even the most recent models of the Galactic electron density distribution model contain significant shortcomings, particularly at high Galactic latitudes. When comparing our results to pulsar timing, two of the four millisecond pulsars in our sample exhibit significant discrepancies in the estimates of proper motion obtained by at least one pulsar timing array. With additional VLBI observations to improve the absolute positional accuracy of our reference sources and an expansion of the number of millisecond pulsars, we will be able to extend the comparison of proper motion discrepancies to a larger sample of pulsar reference positions, which will provide a much more sensitive test of the applicability of the solar system ephemerides used for pulsar timing. Finally, we use our large sample to estimate the typical accuracy attainable for differential astrometry with the VLBA when observing pulsars, showing that for sufficiently bright targets observed 8 times over 18 months, a parallax uncertainty of 4 $\mu$as per arcminute of separation between the pulsar and calibrator can be expected.Comment: updated to version accepted by ApJ: 30 pages, 20 figures, 9 table

Gamma-ray Timing of Redback PSR J2339-0533: Hints for Gravitational Quadrupole Moment Changes

We present the results of precision gamma-ray timing measurements of the binary millisecond pulsar PSR J2339$-$0533, an irradiating system of "redback" type, using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We describe an optimized analysis method to determine a long-term phase-coherent timing solution spanning more than six years, including a measured eccentricity of the binary orbit and constraints on the proper motion of the system. A major result of this timing analysis is the discovery of an extreme variation of the nominal 4.6-hour orbital period $P_{\rm orb}$ over time, showing alternating epochs of decrease and increase. We inferred a cyclic modulation of $P_{\rm orb}$ with an approximate cycle duration of 4.2 years and a modulation amplitude of $\Delta P_{\rm orb}/ P_{\rm orb} = 2.3 \times 10^{-7}$. Considering different possible physical causes, the observed orbital-period modulation most likely results from a variable gravitational quadrupole moment of the companion star due to cyclic magnetic activity in its convective zone.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure