Forest fire propagation prediction based on overlapping DDDAS forecasts

International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2015 – Computational Science at the Gates of NatureForest fire devastate every year thousand of hectares of forest around the world. Fire behavior prediction is a useful tool to aid coordination and management of human and mitigation resources when fighting against these kind of hazards. Any fire spread forecast system requires to be fitted with different kind of data with a high degree of uncertainty, such as for example, me- teorological data and vegetation map among others. The dynamics of this kind of phenomena requires to develop a forecast system with the ability to adapt to changing conditions. In this work two different fire spread forecast systems based on the Dynamic Data Driven Application paradigm are applied and an alternative approach based on the combination of both predictions is presented. This new method uses the computational power provided by high performance computing systems to deliver the predictions under strict real time constraints.This research has been supported by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MECSpain) under contract TIN2011-28689-C02-01 and the Catalan government under grant 2014- SGR-576

Prediction Time Assessment in a DDDAS for Natural Hazard Management: Forest Fire Study Case ✩

This work faces the problem of quality and prediction time assessment in a Dynamic Data Driven Application System (DDDAS) for predicting natural hazard evolution. In particular, we used forest fire spread prediction as a case study to show the applicability of the methodology. The improvement on the prediction quality when using a two-stage DDDAS prediction framework has been widely proved. The two-stages DDDAS has a first phase where an adjustment of the input data is performed in order to be applied in the second phase, the prediction. This paper is focused on defining a new methodology for prediction time assessment under this kind of prediction environments by evaluating, in advance, how a certain combination of simulator, computational resources, adjustment strategy, and frequency of data acquisition will perform, in terms of prediction time. Since the time incurred in the hazard simulation is a crucial part of the whole prediction time, we have defined a methodology to classify the simulator’s execution time using Artificial Intelligence techniques allowing us to determine upper bounds for the DDDAS prediction time depending on the particular input parameter setting. This methodology can be extrapolated to any DDDAS for predicting natural hazards evolution, which uses the two-stage prediction scheme as a working framework. Keywords

A wildland fire model with data assimilation

A wildfire model is formulated based on balance equations for energy and fuel, where the fuel loss due to combustion corresponds to the fuel reaction rate. The resulting coupled partial differential equations have coefficients that can be approximated from prior measurements of wildfires. An ensemble Kalman filter technique with regularization is then used to assimilate temperatures measured at selected points into running wildfire simulations. The assimilation technique is able to modify the simulations to track the measurements correctly even if the simulations were started with an erroneous ignition location that is quite far away from the correct one.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figures; minor revision January 2008. Original version available from http://www-math.cudenver.edu/ccm/report

Architecture of Environmental Risk Modelling: for a faster and more robust response to natural disasters

Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning spatially-explicit information and modelling and their multiple sources of uncertainty. Geospatial support is one of the forms of assistance frequently required by emergency response centres along with hazard forecast and event management assessment. Robust modelling of natural hazards requires dynamic simulations under an array of multiple inputs from different sources. Uncertainty is associated with meteorological forecast and calibration of the model parameters. Software uncertainty also derives from the data transformation models (D-TM) needed for predicting hazard behaviour and its consequences. On the other hand, social contributions have recently been recognized as valuable in raw-data collection and mapping efforts traditionally dominated by professional organizations. Here an architecture overview is proposed for adaptive and robust modelling of natural hazards, following the Semantic Array Programming paradigm to also include the distributed array of social contributors called Citizen Sensor in a semantically-enhanced strategy for D-TM modelling. The modelling architecture proposes a multicriteria approach for assessing the array of potential impacts with qualitative rapid assessment methods based on a Partial Open Loop Feedback Control (POLFC) schema and complementing more traditional and accurate a-posteriori assessment. We discuss the computational aspect of environmental risk modelling using array-based parallel paradigms on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, in order for the implications of urgency to be introduced into the systems (Urgent-HPC).Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure, 1 text box, presented at the 3rd Conference of Computational Interdisciplinary Sciences (CCIS 2014), Asuncion, Paragua

DATA ASSIMILATION AND VISUALIZATION FOR ENSEMBLE WILDLAND FIRE MODELS

This thesis describes an observation function for a dynamic data driven application system designed to produce short range forecasts of the behavior of a wildland fire. The thesis presents an overview of the atmosphere-fire model, which models the complex interactions between the fire and the surrounding weather and the data assimilation module which is responsible for assimilating sensor information into the model. Observation plays an important role in data assimilation as it is used to estimate the model variables at the sensor locations. Also described is the implementation of a portable and user friendly visualization tool which displays the locations of wildfires in the Google Earth virtual globe

Sensor-Driven, Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

Conventionally, agent-based models (ABMs) are specified from well-established theory about the systems under investigation. For such models, data is only introduced to ensure the validity of the specified models. In cases where the underlying mechanisms of the system of interest are unknown, rich datasets about the system can reveal patterns and processes of the systems. Sensors have become ubiquitous allowing researchers to capture precise characteristics of entities in both time and space. The combination of data from in situ sensors to geospatial outputs provides a rich resource for characterising geospatial environments and entities on earth. More importantly, the sensor data can capture behaviours and interactions of entities allowing us to visualise emerging patterns from the interactions. However, there is a paucity of standardised methods for the integration of dynamic sensor data streams into ABMs. Further, only few models have attempted to incorporate spatial and temporal data dynamically from sensors for model specification, calibration and validation. This chapter documents the state of the art of methods for bridging the gap between sensor data observations and specification of accurate spatially explicit agent-based models. In addition, this work proposes a conceptual framework for dynamic validation of sensor-driven spatial ABMs to address the risk of model overfitting

Path planning for first responders in the presence of moving obstacles

Navigation services have gained much importance for all kinds of human activities ranging from tourist navigation to support of rescue teams in disaster management. However, despite the considerable amount of route guidance research that has been performed, many issues that are related to navigation for first responders still need to be addressed. During disasters, emergencies can result in different types of moving obstacles (e.g., fires, plumes, floods), which make some parts of the road network temporarily unavailable. After such incidents occur, responders have to go to different destinations to perform their tasks in the environment affected by the disaster. Therefore they need a path planner that is capable of dealing with such moving obstacles, as well as generating and coordinating their routes quickly and efficiently. During the past decades, more and more hazard simulations, which can modify the models with incorporation of dynamic data from the field, have been developed. These hazard simulations use methods such as data assimilation, stochastic estimation, and adaptive measurement techniques, and are able to generate more reliable results of hazards. This would allow the hazard simulation models to provide valuable information regarding the state of road networks affected by hazards, which supports path planning for first responders among the moving obstacles. The objective of this research is to develop an integrated navigation system for first responders in the presence of moving obstacles. Such system should be able to navigate one or more responders to one or multiple destinations avoiding the moving obstacles, using the predicted information of the moving obstacles generated from by hazard simulations. In this dissertation, the objective we have is expressed as the following research question: How do we safely and efficiently navigate one or more first responders to one or more destinations avoiding moving obstacles? To address the above research questions, this research has been conducted using the following outline: 1). literature review; 2). conceptual design and analysis; 3). implementation of the prototype; and 4). assessment of the prototype and adaption. We investigated previous research related to navigation in disasters, and designed an integrated navigation system architecture, assisting responders in spatial data storage, processing and analysis.Within this architecture, we employ hazard models to provide the predicted information about the obstacles, and select a geo-database to store the data needed for emergency navigation. Throughout the development of the prototype navigation system, we have proposed: a taxonomy of navigation among obstacles, which categorizes navigation cases on basis of type and multiplicity of first responders, destinations, and obstacles; a multi-agent system, which supports information collection from hazard simulations, spatio-temporal data processing and analysis, connection with a geo-database, and route generation in dynamic environments affected by disasters; data models, which structure the information required for finding paths among moving obstacles, capturing both static information, such as the type of the response team, the topology of the road network, and dynamic information, such as changing availabilities of roads during disasters, the uncertainty of the moving obstacles generated from hazard simulations, and the position of the vehicle; path planning algorithms, which generate routes for one or more responders in the presence of moving obstacles. Using the speed of vehicles, departure time, and the predicted information about the state of the road network, etc., three versions (I, II, and III) of Moving Obstacle Avoiding A* (MOAAStar) algorithms are developed: 1). MOAAstar– I/Non-waiting, which supports path planning in the case of forest fires; 2). MOAAstar–II/Waiting, which introduces waiting options to avoid moving obstacles like plumes; 3). MOAAstar–III/Uncertainty, which can handle the uncertainty in predictions of moving obstacles and incorporate the profile of responders into the routing. We have applied the developed prototype navigation system to different navigation cases with moving obstacles. The main conclusions drawn from our applications are summarized as follows: In the proposed taxonomy, we have identified 16 navigation cases that could occur in disaster response and need to be investigated. In addressing these navigation problems, it would be quite useful to employ computer simulations and models, which can make reliable predicted information about responders, the targets, and obstacles, in finding safe routes for the responders. The approach we provide is general and not limited to the cases of plumes and fires. In our data model, the data about the movement of hazards is represented as moving polygons. This allows the data model to be easily adjusted to merge and organize information from models of different types of disasters. For example, the areas that are affected by floods can also be represented as moving polygons. To facilitate the route calculation, not only the data of obstacles but also the information about the state of road networks affected by obstacles need to be structured and stored in the database. In planning routes for responders, the routing algorithms should incorporate the dynamic data of obstacles to be able to avoid the hazards. Besides, other factors, such as the operation time of tasks, the required arrival time, and departure time, also need to be considered to achieve the objectives in a rescue process, e.g., to minimize the delays caused by the moving obstacles. The profile of responders is quite important for generation of feasible routes for a specific disaster situation. The responders may have different protective equipment that allows them to pass through different types of moving obstacles, and thus can have different classification of risk levels to define the state of the road network. By taking into account the profile of the responders, the navigation system can propose customized and safe routes to them, which would facilitate their disaster response processes. On the basis of our findings, we suggest the following topics for future work: As presented Wang and Zlatanova (2013c), there are still a couple of navigation cases that need to be addressed, especially the ones that involve dynamic destinations. More algorithms would be needed to solve these navigation problems. Besides, some extreme cases (e.g., the obstacle covers the target point during the course of an incident) also need to be investigated. Using standard Web services, an Android navigation application, which can provide navigation services in the environment affected by hazards, needs to be developed and tested in both the daily practice and real disasters. In this application, a user interface with various styling options should also be designed for different situations, e.g., waiting and moving, day and night, and urgent and non-urgent. Because the communication infrastructure may not be available or work properly during a disaster response, a decentralized method is needed to allow different users to negotiate with each other and to make local agreements on the distribution of tasks in case there is no support from the central planning system. Another type of multi-agent system would be needed to handle this situation. Introduce variable traveling speed into the re-routing process. The vehicle speed plays an important role in generation of routes avoiding moving obstacle, and can be influenced by many factors, such as the obstacles, the type of vehicles, traffic conditions, and the type of roads. Therefore, it would be needed to investigate how to derive the current and future speed from trajectories of vehicles. Apply the system to aid navigation in various types of natural disasters, using different hazard simulation models (e.g., flood model). More types of agents would be needed and integrated into the system to handle heterogeneous data from these models. Extensions of the data model are also required to meet a wider range of informational needs when multiple disasters occur simultaneously

An adaptive agent-based model of homing pigeons : a genetic algorithm approach

Conventionally, agent-based modelling approaches start from a conceptual model capturing the theoretical understanding of the systems of interest. Simulation outcomes are then used “at the end” to validate the conceptual understanding. In todays data rich era, there are suggestions that models should be data-driven. Data-driven workflows are common in mathematical models. However, their application to agent-based models is still in its infancy. Integration of real-time sensor data into modelling workflows opens up the possibility of comparing simulations against real data during the model run. Calibration and validation procedures thus become automated processes that are iteratively executed during the simulation. We hypothesize that incorporation of real-time sensor data into agent-based models improves the predictive ability of such models. In particular, that such integration results in increasingly well calibrated model parameters and rule sets. In this contribution, we explore this question by implementing a flocking model that evolves in real-time. Specifically, we use genetic algorithms approach to simulate representative parameters to describe flight routes of homing pigeons. The navigation parameters of pigeons are simulated and dynamically evaluated against emulated GPS sensor data streams and optimised based on the fitness of candidate parameters. As a result, the model was able to accurately simulate the relative-turn angles and step-distance of homing pigeons. Further, the optimised parameters could replicate loops, which are common patterns in flight tracks of homing pigeons. Finally, the use of genetic algorithms in this study allowed for a simultaneous data-driven optimization and sensitivity analysis.(VLID)219568

Swarm Intelligence

Swarm Intelligence has emerged as one of the most studied artificial intelligence branches during the last decade, constituting the fastest growing stream in the bio-inspired computation community. A clear trend can be deduced analyzing some of the most renowned scientific databases available, showing that the interest aroused by this branch has increased at a notable pace in the last years. This book describes the prominent theories and recent developments of Swarm Intelligence methods, and their application in all fields covered by engineering. This book unleashes a great opportunity for researchers, lecturers, and practitioners interested in Swarm Intelligence, optimization problems, and artificial intelligence

DATA-DRIVEN PREDICTION, DESIGN, AND CONTROL OF SYSTEM BEHAVIOR USING STATISTICAL LEARNING

The goal in this dissertation is to develop new data-driven techniques for prediction, design, and control of the behavior of a variety of engineering systems. The data used can be obtained from a variety of sources, including from offline, high-fidelity system’s simulation, physical experiments, and online, sparse measurements from sensors. Three inter-related research directions are followed in this dissertation. Following the first direction, the author presents a multi-step-ahead prediction technique for evaluating a single-response (or single-output of the) system’s behavior through an integration of the data obtained offline from the system’s high-fidelity simulation, and online from single sensor measurements. With regard to the first research direction, the key contribution includes a reasonably fast and accurate prediction strategy that can be used, among others, for online, multi-step ahead forecasting of the system’s operational behavior. Building on the work from the first direction, the author follows a second research direction to present a multi-step ahead prediction technique, this time for a multi-response system’s behavior, that can be used for evaluating various system’s designs and corresponding operations. Data in this case is obtained from the offline, high-fidelity system’s simulations, and online sparse measurements from multiple sensors (or limited number of physical experiments). The main contribution for this second direction is in construction of a new data-driven, multi-response prediction framework that has a robust predictive capability. Along the third research direction, a data-driven technique is used for prediction and co-optimization of a system’s design and control. The data in this case is obtained from sensor measurements or a simulator. The main contribution achieved through the third direction is a new data-driven reinforcement learning-based prediction and co-optimization approach. The methods from this dissertation have numerous applications, including those demonstrated here: (i) assessment of safe aircraft flight conditions (Chapters 2 and 3), (ii) evaluation of design and operation of a robotic appendage (Chapter 3), and (iii) design and control of a traffic system (Chapter 4)