A GIS-based multi-criteria evaluation framework for uncertainty reduction in earthquake disaster management using granular computing

One of the most important steps in earthquake disaster management is the prediction of probable damages which is called earthquake vulnerability assessment. Earthquake vulnerability assessment is a multicriteria problem and a number of multi-criteria decision making models have been proposed for the problem. Two main sources of uncertainty including uncertainty associated with experts‘ point of views and the one associated with attribute values exist in the earthquake vulnerability assessment problem. If the uncertainty in these two sources is not handled properly the resulted seismic vulnerability map will be unreliable. The main objective of this research is to propose a reliable model for earthquake vulnerability assessment which is able to manage the uncertainty associated with the experts‘ opinions. Granular Computing (GrC) is able to extract a set of if-then rules with minimum incompatibility from an information table. An integration of Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) and GrC is applied in the current research to minimize the entropy in experts‘ opinions. The accuracy of the model based on the integration of the DST and GrC is 83%, while the accuracy of the single-expert model is 62% which indicates the importance of uncertainty management in seismic vulnerability assessment problem. Due to limited accessibility to current data, only six criteria are used in this model. However, the model is able to take into account both qualitative and quantitative criteria

MOOCs Meet Measurement Theory: A Topic-Modelling Approach

This paper adapts topic models to the psychometric testing of MOOC students based on their online forum postings. Measurement theory from education and psychology provides statistical models for quantifying a person's attainment of intangible attributes such as attitudes, abilities or intelligence. Such models infer latent skill levels by relating them to individuals' observed responses on a series of items such as quiz questions. The set of items can be used to measure a latent skill if individuals' responses on them conform to a Guttman scale. Such well-scaled items differentiate between individuals and inferred levels span the entire range from most basic to the advanced. In practice, education researchers manually devise items (quiz questions) while optimising well-scaled conformance. Due to the costly nature and expert requirements of this process, psychometric testing has found limited use in everyday teaching. We aim to develop usable measurement models for highly-instrumented MOOC delivery platforms, by using participation in automatically-extracted online forum topics as items. The challenge is to formalise the Guttman scale educational constraint and incorporate it into topic models. To favour topics that automatically conform to a Guttman scale, we introduce a novel regularisation into non-negative matrix factorisation-based topic modelling. We demonstrate the suitability of our approach with both quantitative experiments on three Coursera MOOCs, and with a qualitative survey of topic interpretability on two MOOCs by domain expert interviews.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures; accepted into AAAI'201

Flow-based Influence Graph Visual Summarization

Visually mining a large influence graph is appealing yet challenging. People are amazed by pictures of newscasting graph on Twitter, engaged by hidden citation networks in academics, nevertheless often troubled by the unpleasant readability of the underlying visualization. Existing summarization methods enhance the graph visualization with blocked views, but have adverse effect on the latent influence structure. How can we visually summarize a large graph to maximize influence flows? In particular, how can we illustrate the impact of an individual node through the summarization? Can we maintain the appealing graph metaphor while preserving both the overall influence pattern and fine readability? To answer these questions, we first formally define the influence graph summarization problem. Second, we propose an end-to-end framework to solve the new problem. Our method can not only highlight the flow-based influence patterns in the visual summarization, but also inherently support rich graph attributes. Last, we present a theoretic analysis and report our experiment results. Both evidences demonstrate that our framework can effectively approximate the proposed influence graph summarization objective while outperforming previous methods in a typical scenario of visually mining academic citation networks.Comment: to appear in IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM), Shen Zhen, China, December 201

Community Structure Characterization

This entry discusses the problem of describing some communities identified in a complex network of interest, in a way allowing to interpret them. We suppose the community structure has already been detected through one of the many methods proposed in the literature. The question is then to know how to extract valuable information from this first result, in order to allow human interpretation. This requires subsequent processing, which we describe in the rest of this entry