Causes of Ineradicable Spurious Predictions in Qualitative Simulation

It was recently proved that a sound and complete qualitative simulator does not exist, that is, as long as the input-output vocabulary of the state-of-the-art QSIM algorithm is used, there will always be input models which cause any simulator with a coverage guarantee to make spurious predictions in its output. In this paper, we examine whether a meaningfully expressive restriction of this vocabulary is possible so that one can build a simulator with both the soundness and completeness properties. We prove several negative results: All sound qualitative simulators, employing subsets of the QSIM representation which retain the operating region transition feature, and support at least the addition and constancy constraints, are shown to be inherently incomplete. Even when the simulations are restricted to run in a single operating region, a constraint vocabulary containing just the addition, constancy, derivative, and multiplication relations makes the construction of sound and complete qualitative simulators impossible

Correcting the radar rainfall forcing of a hydrological model with data assimilation: application to flood forecasting in the Lez Catchment in Southern France

The present study explores the application of a data assimilation (DA) procedure to correct the radar rain- fall inputs of an event-based, distributed, parsimonious hy- drological model. An extended Kalman filter algorithm was built on top of a rainfall-runoff model in order to assimilate discharge observations at the catchment outlet. This work fo- cuses primarily on the uncertainty in the rainfall data and considers this as the principal source of error in the sim- ulated discharges, neglecting simplifications in the hydro- logical model structure and poor knowledge of catchment physics. The study site is the 114 km2 Lez catchment near Montpellier, France. This catchment is subject to heavy oro- graphic rainfall and characterised by a karstic geology, lead- ing to flash flooding events. The hydrological model uses a derived version of the SCS method, combined with a Lag and Route transfer function. Because the radar rainfall in- put to the model depends on geographical features and cloud structures, it is particularly uncertain and results in signifi- cant errors in the simulated discharges. This study seeks to demonstrate that a simple DA algorithm is capable of ren- dering radar rainfall suitable for hydrological forecasting. To test this hypothesis, the DA analysis was applied to estimate a constant hyetograph correction to each of 19 flood events. The analysis was carried in two different modes: by assimi- lating observations at all available time steps, referred to here as reanalysis mode, and by using only observations up to 3 h before the flood peak to mimic an operational environment, referred to as pseudo-forecast mode. In reanalysis mode, the resulting correction of the radar rainfall data was then com- pared to the mean field bias (MFB), a corrective coefficient determined using rain gauge measurements. It was shown that the radar rainfall corrected using DA leads to improved discharge simulations and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criteria compared to the MFB correction. In pseudo-forecast mode, the reduction of the uncertainty in the rainfall data leads to a reduction of the error in the simulated discharge, but un- certainty from the model parameterisation diminishes data assimilation efficiency. While the DA algorithm used is this study is effective in correcting uncertain radar rainfall, model uncertainty remains an important challenge for flood fore- casting within the Lez catchment

Ensemble evaluation of hydrological model hypotheses

It is demonstrated for the first time how model parameter, structural and data uncertainties can be accounted for explicitly and simultaneously within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. As an example application, 72 variants of a single soil moisture accounting store are tested as simplified hypotheses of runoff generation at six experimental grassland field-scale lysimeters through model rejection and a novel diagnostic scheme. The fields, designed as replicates, exhibit different hydrological behaviors which yield different model performances. For fields with low initial discharge levels at the beginning of events, the conceptual stores considered reach their limit of applicability. Conversely, one of the fields yielding more discharge than the others, but having larger data gaps, allows for greater flexibility in the choice of model structures. As a model learning exercise, the study points to a “leaking” of the fields not evident from previous field experiments. It is discussed how understanding observational uncertainties and incorporating these into model diagnostics can help appreciate the scale of model structural error

Qualitative System Identification from Imperfect Data

Experience in the physical sciences suggests that the only realistic means of understanding complex systems is through the use of mathematical models. Typically, this has come to mean the identification of quantitative models expressed as differential equations. Quantitative modelling works best when the structure of the model (i.e., the form of the equations) is known; and the primary concern is one of estimating the values of the parameters in the model. For complex biological systems, the model-structure is rarely known and the modeler has to deal with both model-identification and parameter-estimation. In this paper we are concerned with providing automated assistance to the first of these problems. Specifically, we examine the identification by machine of the structural relationships between experimentally observed variables. These relationship will be expressed in the form of qualitative abstractions of a quantitative model. Such qualitative models may not only provide clues to the precise quantitative model, but also assist in understanding the essence of that model. Our position in this paper is that background knowledge incorporating system modelling principles can be used to constrain effectively the set of good qualitative models. Utilising the model-identification framework provided by Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) we present empirical support for this position using a series of increasingly complex artificial datasets. The results are obtained with qualitative and quantitative data subject to varying amounts of noise and different degrees of sparsity. The results also point to the presence of a set of qualitative states, which we term kernel subsets, that may be necessary for a qualitative model-learner to learn correct models. We demonstrate scalability of the method to biological system modelling by identification of the glycolysis metabolic pathway from data

Duration Consistency Filtering for Qualitative Simulation

We present two new qualitative reasoning formalisms, and use them in the construction of a new type of filtering mechanism for qualitative simulators. Our new sign algebra, SR1*, facilitates reasoning about relationships among the signs of collections of real numbers. The comparison calculus , built on top of SR1*, is a general framework that can be used to qualitatively compare the behaviors of two dynamic systems or two excerpts of the behavior of a single dynamic system at different situations. These tools enable us to improve the predictive performance of qualitative simulation algorithms. We show that qualitative simulators can make better use of their input to deduce significant amounts of qualitative information about the relative lengths of the time intervals in their output behavior predictions. Simple techniques employing concepts like symmetry, periodicity, and comparison of the circumstances during multiple traversals of the same region can be used to build a list of facts representing the deduced information about relative durations. The duration consistency filter eliminates spurious behaviors leading to inconsistent combinations of these facts. Surviving behaviors are annotated with richer qualitative descriptions. Used in conjunction with other spurious behavior elimination methods, this approach would increase the ability of qualitative simulators to handle more complex systems.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/41773/1/10472_2004_Article_5118515.pd

Self-calibrating models for dynamic monitoring and diagnosis

A method for automatically building qualitative and semi-quantitative models of dynamic systems, and using them for monitoring and fault diagnosis, is developed and demonstrated. The qualitative approach and semi-quantitative method are applied to monitoring observation streams, and to design of non-linear control systems

Accelerometer calibration for NASA\u27s magnetospheric multiscale mission spacecraft

This thesis presents several methods for the on-board and/or ground-based calibration of accelerometers for the spacecraft (s/c) of the NASA Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) Mission during mission operation. A lumped bias is estimated to correct for the total effect of the MMS accelerometer sensor bias, orthogonal misalignment and the shift in the s/c\u27s center of mass. Various estimation techniques are evaluated and compared, including both dynamically driven real-time filters/observers and post processing batch algorithms. Both methods are shown to accurately determine lumped bias, so long as the s/c inertia tensor is well known. If, however, there is any uncertainty in the inertia tensor, only post processing methods yield accurate lumped bias estimates. Analytical simulations show that these methods are able to correct accelerometer readings to within 1 micro-g of true acceleration. Preliminary experimental verification also shows proof of concept

Research on Efficiency of Collaborative Allocation System of Emergency Material Based on Synergetic Theory

AbstractEmergencies increasingly become so comprehensive covering large areas and derivative that a single organization can not meet the requirement of emergency disposition. Therefore, collaborative allocation of emergency material involving multi-organizations becomes one of the key content of emergency management. The collaborative allocation system of emergency material has the characteristics of complex system. Based on synergetic theory of systems engineering and the actual problem of low efficiency of collaborative allocation of emergency material in our country, the key factors influencing efficiency improvement are analyzed in respect of people, organization, material, information, technology and strategy. By adopting and improving QSIM (qualitative simulation method), the inner action mechanism is studied and the conclusion is that the responsibility and authority definition, the coordination ability of decision-makers and information transmission efficiency are the most important factors for the efficiency of collaborative allocation. The measures set forth in this paper are for the reference of relevant decision-makers and we hope it can be helpful for their decision making

Self-calibrating models for dynamic monitoring and diagnosis

The present goal in qualitative reasoning is to develop methods for automatically building qualitative and semiquantitative models of dynamic systems and to use them for monitoring and fault diagnosis. The qualitative approach to modeling provides a guarantee of coverage while our semiquantitative methods support convergence toward a numerical model as observations are accumulated. We have developed and applied methods for automatic creation of qualitative models, developed two methods for obtaining tractable results on problems that were previously intractable for qualitative simulation, and developed more powerful methods for learning semiquantitative models from observations and deriving semiquantitative predictions from them. With these advances, qualitative reasoning comes significantly closer to realizing its aims as a practical engineering method

Learning qualitative models from physiological signals

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 1994.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 165-169).by David Tak-Wai Hau.M.S