CLADAG 2021 BOOK OF ABSTRACTS AND SHORT PAPERS

The book collects the short papers presented at the 13th Scientific Meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society (SIS). The meeting has been organized by the Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications of the University of Florence, under the auspices of the Italian Statistical Society and the International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS). CLADAG is a member of the IFCS, a federation of national, regional, and linguistically-based classification societies. It is a non-profit, non-political scientific organization, whose aims are to further classification research

COMMUNITY DETECTION AND INFLUENCE MAXIMIZATION IN ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORKS

The detecting and clustering of data and users into communities on the social web are important and complex issues in order to develop smart marketing models in changing and evolving social ecosystems. These marketing models are created by individual decision to purchase a product and are influenced by friends and acquaintances. This leads to novel marketing models, which view users as members of online social network communities, rather than the traditional view of marketing to individuals. This thesis starts by examining models that detect communities in online social networks. Then an enhanced approach to detect community which clusters similar nodes together is suggested. Social relationships play an important role in determining user behavior. For example, a user might purchase a product that his/her friend recently bought. Such a phenomenon is called social influence and is used to study how far the action of one user can affect the behaviors of others. Then an original metric used to compute the influential power of social network users based on logs of common actions in order to infer a probabilistic influence propagation model. Finally, a combined community detection algorithm and suggested influence propagation approach reveals a new influence maximization model by identifying and using the most influential users within their communities. In doing so, we employed a fuzzy logic based technique to determine the key users who drive this influence in their communities and diffuse a certain behavior. This original approach contrasts with previous influence propagation models, which did not use similarity opportunities among members of communities to maximize influence propagation. The performance results show that the model activates a higher number of overall nodes in contemporary social networks, starting from a smaller set of key users, as compared to existing landmark approaches which influence fewer nodes, yet employ a larger set of key users

Statistical reasoning with set-valued information : Ontic vs. epistemic views

International audienceIn information processing tasks, sets may have a conjunctive or a disjunctive reading. In the conjunctive reading, a set represents an object of interest and its elements are subparts of the object, forming a composite description. In the disjunctive reading, a set contains mutually exclusive elements and refers to the representation of incomplete knowledge. It does not model an actual object or quantity, but partial information about an underlying object or a precise quantity. This distinction between what we call ontic vs. epistemic sets remains valid for fuzzy sets, whose membership functions, in the disjunctive reading are possibility distributions, over deterministic or random values. This paper examines the impact of this distinction in statistics. We show its importance because there is a risk of misusing basic notions and tools, such as conditioning, distance between sets, variance, regression, etc. when data are set-valued. We discuss several examples where the ontic and epistemic points of view yield different approaches to these concepts

An exploration of evolutionary computation applied to frequency modulation audio synthesis parameter optimisation

With the ever-increasing complexity of sound synthesisers, there is a growing demand for automated parameter estimation and sound space navigation techniques. This thesis explores the potential for evolutionary computation to automatically map known sound qualities onto the parameters of frequency modulation synthesis. Within this exploration are original contributions in the domain of synthesis parameter estimation and, within the developed system, evolutionary computation, in the form of the evolutionary algorithms that drive the underlying optimisation process. Based upon the requirement for the parameter estimation system to deliver multiple search space solutions, existing evolutionary algorithmic architectures are augmented to enable niching, while maintaining the strengths of the original algorithms. Two novel evolutionary algorithms are proposed in which cluster analysis is used to identify and maintain species within the evolving populations. A conventional evolution strategy and cooperative coevolution strategy are defined, with cluster-orientated operators that enable the simultaneous optimisation of multiple search space solutions at distinct optima. A test methodology is developed that enables components of the synthesis matching problem to be identified and isolated, enabling the performance of different optimisation techniques to be compared quantitatively. A system is consequently developed that evolves sound matches using conventional frequency modulation synthesis models, and the effectiveness of different evolutionary algorithms is assessed and compared in application to both static and timevarying sound matching problems. Performance of the system is then evaluated by interview with expert listeners. The thesis is closed with a reflection on the algorithms and systems which have been developed, discussing possibilities for the future of automated synthesis parameter estimation techniques, and how they might be employed

A framework for managing global risk factors affecting construction cost performance

Poor cost performance of construction projects has been a major concern for both contractors and clients. The effective management of risk is thus critical to the success of any construction project and the importance of risk management has grown as projects have become more complex and competition has increased. Contractors have traditionally used financial mark-ups to cover the risk associated with construction projects but as competition increases and margins have become tighter they can no longer rely on this strategy and must improve their ability to manage risk. Furthermore, the construction industry has witnessed significant changes particularly in procurement methods with clients allocating greater risks to contractors. Evidence shows that there is a gap between existing risk management techniques and tools, mainly built on normative statistical decision theory, and their practical application by construction contractors. The main reason behind the lack of use is that risk decision making within construction organisations is heavily based upon experience, intuition and judgement and not on mathematical models. This thesis presents a model for managing global risk factors affecting construction cost performance of construction projects. The model has been developed using behavioural decision approach, fuzzy logic technology, and Artificial Intelligence technology. The methodology adopted to conduct the research involved a thorough literature survey on risk management, informal and formal discussions with construction practitioners to assess the extent of the problem, a questionnaire survey to evaluate the importance of global risk factors and, finally, repertory grid interviews aimed at eliciting relevant knowledge. There are several approaches to categorising risks permeating construction projects. This research groups risks into three main categories, namely organisation-specific, global and Acts of God. It focuses on global risk factors because they are ill-defined, less understood by contractors and difficult to model, assess and manage although they have huge impact on cost performance. Generally, contractors, especially in developing countries, have insufficient experience and knowledge to manage them effectively. The research identified the following groups of global risk factors as having significant impact on cost performance: estimator related, project related, fraudulent practices related, competition related, construction related, economy related and political related factors. The model was tested for validity through a panel of validators (experts) and crosssectional cases studies, and the general conclusion was that it could provide valuable assistance in the management of global risk factors since it is effective, efficient, flexible and user-friendly. The findings stress the need to depart from traditional approaches and to explore new directions in order to equip contractors with effective risk management tools

Market Segmentation Analysis: Understanding It, Doing It, and Making It Useful

This open access book offers something for everyone working with market segmentation: practical guidance for users of market segmentation solutions; organisational guidance on implementation issues; guidance for market researchers in charge of collecting suitable data; and guidance for data analysts with respect to the technical and statistical aspects of market segmentation analysis. Even market segmentation experts will find something new, including a vast array of useful visualisation techniques that make interpretation of market segments and selection of target segments easier. All calculations are accompanied not only with a detailed explanation, but also with R code that allows readers to replicate any aspect of what is being covered in the book using R, the open-source environment for statistical computing and graphics.Dieses Open Access Buch offeriert allen etwas, die mit Marktsegmentierung zu tun haben: praktische Anleitungen für Anwender von Marktsegmentierungslösungen, organisatorische Hilfe zur Umsetzung und Datensammlung, sowie Hilfe zur technischen und statistischen Umsetzung von Marktsegmentierungsanalysen. Auch Experten der Marktsegmentierung finden neue Werkzeuge, inbesonders eine umfangreiche Sammlung von Visualisierungsmethoden zur einfacheren Interpretation und Selektion von Marktsegmenten. Alle Berechnungen werden nicht nur detailliert erklärt, sondern von R Code begleitet, welcher es dem Leser erlaubt, alle Analysen im Buch mit Hilfe der Open Source Statistiksoftware R zu replizieren