Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning

Despite some recent progress, scenario planning’s development as an academic discipline remains constrained by the perception it is solely a practical tool for thinking about the future, with limited theoretical foundations. The paper addresses this issue by showing that G. L. S. Shackle’s ‘Potential Surprise Theory’ (PST) contains much that can lend theoretical support to scenario planning - especially its use of plausibility rather than probability, and its focus on potential extreme outcomes. Moreover, PST and scenario planning share the same ontology, viewing the future as constructed by the imagination of individuals. Yet, under PST, while the future is imagined and, therefore, subjective, individuals nevertheless seek to identify the ‘best’ option through a deductive process of elimination. PST therefore assists in overcoming the divide between the constructivist and deductivist perspectives in scenario planning as it employs both. Finally, the paper shows that theoretically underpinning scenario planning with PST would place it at the heart of contemporary debates on decision making under uncertainty taking place in economics and other fields, enhancing its status and profile as a discipline

Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting

In this paper we show that New Product Development (NPD) is subject to fundamental uncertainty that is both epistemic and ontic in nature. We argue that this uncertainty cannot be mitigated using forecasting techniques exclusively, because these are most useful in circumstances characteristic of probabilistic risk, as distinct from non-probabilistic uncertainty. We show that the mitigation of uncertainty in relation to NPD requires techniques able to take account of the socio-economic factors that can combine to cause present assumptions about future demand conditions to be incorrect. This can be achieved through an Intuitive Logics (IL) scenario planning process designed specifically to mitigate uncertainty associated with NPD by incorporating insights from both quantitative modelling alongside consideration of political, social, technological and legal factors, as-well-as stakeholder motivations that are central to successful NPD. In this paper we therefore achieve three objectives: 1) identify the aspects of the current IL process salient to mitigating the uncertainty of NPD; 2) show how advances in diffusion modelling can be used to identify the social-network and contagion effects that lead to a product's full diffusion; and 3) show how the IL process can be further enhanced to facilitate detailed consideration of the factors enabling and inhibiting initial market-acceptance, and then the forecasted full diffusion of a considered new product. We provide a step-by-step guide to the implementation of this adapted IL scenario planning process designed specifically to mitigate uncertainty in relation to NP

After Macauliffe: the wondrous liberty of Puran Singh

Belonging to the generation after Macauliffe, one of the first Sikhs who sought to spread the message of the Gurus in English was Professor Puran Singh (1881-1931). In his unusual life, he combined the practice of his profession with a passionate search for the expression of all-embracing spiritual realities. This drew him to the poetic interpretation of the message of the Sikh Gurus, in part inspired by his strong identification with the poetry of Walt Whitman, and resulting in a very different approach from Macauliffe's to translating the Sikh scriptures. The paper includes some discussion of the broad context of the complex interweaving of literary and religious trends across different parts of the British empire in the early twentieth century, paying particular attention to parallels between India and Ireland

Declining Participation in Youth Sports and Its Contributing Factors

This study was designed to research the declining participation numbers of youths, ages 5 to 18, in organized sports in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Specifically, this study would look into reasons as to why youth sport participation numbers are on the decline. While the total number of youth athletes are difficult to ascertain, it is known that from 2008 to 2019 the total number of athletes participating in youth sports have been in decline for both male and female athletes (“From 2008”, 2021) Participants will take home a survey that they can complete on their own or with a parent or guardian and return it to their school. Eight schools in Minneapolis were chosen to participate in this study: four elementary schools, two middle schools, and two high schools. These schools were chosen from all areas of Minneapolis to reflect the different diverse demographics of Minneapolis. It will be important to have schools that have various student ethnicities, socioeconomic backgrounds, and neighborhoods. This study is theoretical in nature and has not been completed. The results will not be known due to this fact

Representing Sikhism: Essays in memory of the Irish scholar Max Arthur Macauliffe

This is an introduction, by the guest editors, to the special issue of JISASR (Vol 4, 2017) entitled 'Representing Sikhism: Essays in Memory of the Irish Scholar Max Arthur Macauliffe'. The genesis of this special issue lies in pioneering work on Macauliffe's Irish identity and personal and scholarly life undertaken by Professor Tadhg Foley (Galway). The active interest and support of members of the Sikh community in Ireland led to a conference, hosted by the Study of Religions Department at University College Cork, held to mark the centennial of Macauliffe's death on 15 March 1913. After some brief comments on past and present trends in the study of Ireland-Asia connections in the field of religions, we discuss Macauliffe's significance for modern representations of Sikhism and offer some contextual observations on each of the four papers. The article concludes with a brief resumé of the 2013 conference at which the papers were originally presented

Decision-rule cascades and the dynamics of speculative bubbles

We combine Minsky's financial fragility analysis, behavioural analysis of decision rules and the evolutionary economics of rule trajectories to provide an empirically grounded and computationally tractable theory of the complex evolutionary dynamics of speculative financial upswings. The behavioural dynamics of asset bubbles can be conceptualized as the joint consequence of the adoption and diffusion process of new investment decision rules coupled with the degradation of those rules as they pass from a few expert investors to larger population of amateurs. We illustrate this using data covering the recent Brisbane property market bubble (1999-2003) and show how it is consistent with the existence of such cascading decision rules. We then explain how multi-agent simulation methods can be used for modelling decision rule cascades. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

F. A. Hayek vs. J. M. Keynes in Shackle's marginal gloss

The intellectual rivalry of F.A. Hayek and J.M. Keynes has recently caught the attention of historians of economic thought, journalists and the broad public. However, how was it viewed at the time? This article uses archival material in the form of marginal annotations made by G.L.S. Shackle to determine contemporary reading responses to the theoretical developments of the 1930s. Shackle’s unique reading style that includes legible, dated, annotations and the fact that a substantial part of his academic library survives, gives us a unique vantage point from which to explore anew this period of intellectual history