Synthetic Controls: A New Approach to Evaluating Interventions

Synthetic control methods are a novel approach to comparative case study research using observational data. Though developed within political science, the methods can potentially be applied to a wide range of evaluation problems in economics, public health, social policy and other disciplines. In the traditional approach, an area in which a new or redesigned service is being implemented is compared with another ‘control’ area (in which there is no change) and statistical adjustment used to account for any differences between areas that might bias the comparison. In the new approach, a synthetic control is derived using data on past trends in all potentially comparable areas, providing a more robust basis for identifying the impact of the service change. Synthetic control methods may be a valuable addition to the range of techniques available for non-randomised evaluations of social, economic and public health interventions. To date there have been few applications in a UK context, and none in Scotland. Published evidence suggests considerable potential to apply synthetic controls to public service innovations at NHS Board, local authority or Community Planning Partnership level, and may widen the range of policy and practice changes that can usefully be evaluated

Scientific knowledge and scientific uncertainty in bushfire and flood risk mitigation: literature review

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning (RMPP) project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of bushfire and flood science, and its contribution to risk mitigation policy and planning. The project investigates how policy makers, practitioners, courts, inquiries and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge in relation to bushfire and flood risk. It uses qualitative social science methods and case studies to analyse how diverse types of knowledge are ordered and judged as salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for emergency management across the PPRR spectrum. This research report is the second literature review of the RMPP project and was written before any of the case studies had been completed. It synthesises approximately 250 academic sources on bushfire and flood risk science, including research on hazard modelling, prescribed burning, hydrological engineering, development planning, meteorology, climatology and evacuation planning. The report also incorporates theoretical insights from the fields of risk studies and science and technology studies (STS), as well as indicative research regarding the public understandings of science, risk communication and deliberative planning. This report outlines the key scientific practices (methods and knowledge) and scientific uncertainties in bushfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. Scientific uncertainties are those ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ that emerge from the development and utilisation of scientific knowledge. Risk mitigation involves those processes through which agencies attempt to limit the vulnerability of assets and values to a given hazard. The focus of this report is the uncertainties encountered and managed by risk mitigation professionals in regards to these two hazards, though literature regarding natural sciences and the scientific method more generally are also included where appropriate. It is important to note that while this report excludes professional experience and local knowledge from its consideration of uncertainties and knowledge, these are also very important aspects of risk mitigation which will be addressed in the RMPP project’s case studies. Key findings of this report include: Risk and scientific knowledge are both constructed categories, indicating that attempts to understand any individual instance of risk or scientific knowledge should be understood in light of the social, political, economic, and ecological context in which they emerge. Uncertainty is a necessary element of scientific methods, and as such risk mitigation practitioners and researchers alike should seek to ‘embrace uncertainty’ (Moore et al., 2005) as part of navigating bushfire and flood risk mitigation

A taxonomy for emergency service station location problem

The emergency service station (ESS) location problem has been widely studied in the literature since 1970s. There has been a growing interest in the subject especially after 1990s. Various models with different objective functions and constraints have been proposed in the academic literature and efficient solution techniques have been developed to provide good solutions in reasonable times. However, there is not any study that systematically classifies different problem types and methodologies to address them. This paper presents a taxonomic framework for the ESS location problem using an operations research perspective. In this framework, we basically consider the type of the emergency, the objective function, constraints, model assumptions, modeling, and solution techniques. We also analyze a variety of papers related to the literature in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the taxonomy and to get insights for possible research directions

Occupational cooling practices of emergency first responders in the United States: A survey

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Temperature on 29/07/2018, available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/23328940.2018.1493907 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.© 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Despite extensive documentation directed specifically toward mitigating thermal strain of first responders, we wished to ascertain the degree to which first responders applied cooling strategies, and what opinions are held by the various agencies/departments within the United States. An internet-based survey of first responders was distributed to the International Association of Fire Chiefs, International Association of Fire Firefighters, National Bomb Squad Advisory Board and the USA Interagency Board and their subsequent departments and branches. Individual first responder departments were questioned regarding the use of pre-, concurrent, post-cooling, types of methods employed, and/or reasons why they had not incorporated various methods in first responder deployment. Completed surveys were collected from 119 unique de-identified departments, including those working in law enforcement (29%), as firefighters (29%), EOD (28%) and HAZMAT technicians (15%). One-hundred and eighteen departments (99%) reported heat strain/illness to be a risk to employee safety during occupational duties. The percentage of departments with at least one case of heat illness in the previous year were as follows: fire (39%) HAZMAT (23%), EOD (20%) and law enforcement (18%). Post-cooling was the scheduled cooling method implemented the most (63%). Fire departments were significantly more likely to use post-cooling, as well as combine two types of scheduled cooling compared to other departments. Importantly, 25% of all departments surveyed provided no cooling whatsoever. The greatest barriers to personnel cooling were as follows–availability, cost, logistics, and knowledge. Our findings could aid in a better understanding of current practices and perceptions of heat illness and injury prevention in United States first responders. Abbreviations: EOD: explosive ordnance disposal; HAZMAT: hazardous materials.This project is financially supported by the United States Government through the United States Department of Defense (DOD).Published versio

Balancing operating revenues and occupied refurbishment costs 1: problems of defining project success factors and selecting site planning methods

In planning the refurbishment of railway stations the spatial needs of the contractor and of the ongoing business stakeholders have to be balanced. A particular concern is the disruptive effect of construction works upon pedestrian movement. RaCMIT (Refurbishment and Customer Movement Integration Tool) was a research project aimed at addressing this problem. The objective of the research was to develop a decision protocol facilitating optimisation of overall project value to the client's business. This paper (the first of two) presents a framework for considering public disruption in occupied refurbishment using two case studies in large railway stations as examples. It briefly describes new tools which (combined with existing techniques) assist decision making in the management of disruption. It links strategic with sitebased decision making and suggests how public disruption may be treated as a variable to be jointly optimised along with traditional criteria such as time, cost and quality. Research observations as well as current literature suggest that for overall decision-making, opportunities may be lost (under current practice) for minimising joint project cost/revenue disruption, and, for spatio-temporal site decision-making, effective and efficient tools now exist to model both sides of the construction site boundary

Biomass-modulated fire dynamics during the last glacial-interglacial transition at the central pyrenees (Spain)

Understanding long-term fire ecology is essential for current day interpretation of ecosystem fire responses. However palaeoecology of fire is still poorly understood, especially at high-altitude mountain environments, despite the fact that these are fire-sensitive ecosystems and their resilience might be affected by changing fire regimes. We reconstruct wildfire occurrence since the Lateglacial (14.7. cal. ka BP) to the Mid-Holocene (6. cal. ka BP) and investigate the climate-fuel-fire relationships in a sedimentary sequence located at the treeline in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Pollen, macro- and micro-charcoal were analysed for the identification of fire events (FE) in order to detect vegetation post-fire response and to define biomass-fire interactions. mean fire intervals (mfi) reduced since the Lateglacial, peaking at 9-7.7. cal. ka BP while from 7.7 to 6. cal. ka BP no fire is recorded. We hypothesise that Early Holocene maximum summer insolation, as climate forcing, and mesophyte forest expansion, as a fuel-creating factor, were responsible for accelerating fire occurrence in the Central Pyrenees treeline. We also found that fire had long-lasting negative effects on most of the treeline plant communities and that forest contraction from 7.7. cal. ka BP is likely linked to the ecosystem's threshold response to high fire frequencies.This research has been funded by the projects DINAMO (CGL2009-07992) (funding EGPF — grant ref. BES-2010-038593 and MSC), DINAMO2 (CGL2012-33063), ARAFIRE (2012 GA LC 064), GRACCIE-CONSOLIDER (CSD2007-00067). GGR was funded by the Juan de la Cierva Program (grant ref. JCI2009-04345) and JAE-Doc CSIC Program, LLM was supported by a postdoctoral MINT fellowship funded by the Institute for the Environment (Brunel University), AMC is a Ramón y Cajal fellow (ref: RYC-2008-02431), APS holds a grant funded by the Aragon Government (ref. 17030G/5423/480072/14003) and JAE holds a grant funded by the Basque Country Government (BFI-2010-5)