Exploring the Combination of Dempster-Shafer Theory and Neural Network for Predicting Trust and Distrust

In social media, trust and distrust among users are important factors in helping users make decisions, dissect information, and receive recommendations. However, the sparsity and imbalance of social relations bring great difficulties and challenges in predicting trust and distrust. Meanwhile, there are numerous inducing factors to determine trust and distrust relations. The relationship among inducing factors may be dependency, independence, and conflicting. Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network are effective and efficient strategies to deal with these difficulties and challenges. In this paper, we study trust and distrust prediction based on the combination of Dempster-Shafer theory and neural network. We firstly analyze the inducing factors about trust and distrust, namely, homophily, status theory, and emotion tendency. Then, we quantify inducing factors of trust and distrust, take these features as evidences, and construct evidence prototype as input nodes of multilayer neural network. Finally, we propose a framework of predicting trust and distrust which uses multilayer neural network to model the implementing process of Dempster-Shafer theory in different hidden layers, aiming to overcome the disadvantage of Dempster-Shafer theory without optimization method. Experimental results on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework

Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for Information Fusion (Collected Works), Vol. 4

The fourth volume on Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for information fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics. The contributions (see List of Articles published in this book, at the end of the volume) have been published or presented after disseminating the third volume (2009, http://fs.unm.edu/DSmT-book3.pdf) in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals. First Part of this book presents the theoretical advancement of DSmT, dealing with Belief functions, conditioning and deconditioning, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Decision Making, Multi-Criteria, evidence theory, combination rule, evidence distance, conflicting belief, sources of evidences with different importance and reliabilities, importance of sources, pignistic probability transformation, Qualitative reasoning under uncertainty, Imprecise belief structures, 2-Tuple linguistic label, Electre Tri Method, hierarchical proportional redistribution, basic belief assignment, subjective probability measure, Smarandache codification, neutrosophic logic, Evidence theory, outranking methods, Dempster-Shafer Theory, Bayes fusion rule, frequentist probability, mean square error, controlling factor, optimal assignment solution, data association, Transferable Belief Model, and others. More applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the third book of DSmT 2009. Subsequently, the second part of this volume is about applications of DSmT in correlation with Electronic Support Measures, belief function, sensor networks, Ground Moving Target and Multiple target tracking, Vehicle-Born Improvised Explosive Device, Belief Interacting Multiple Model filter, seismic and acoustic sensor, Support Vector Machines, Alarm classification, ability of human visual system, Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework, Threat Assessment, Handwritten Signature Verification, Automatic Aircraft Recognition, Dynamic Data-Driven Application System, adjustment of secure communication trust analysis, and so on. Finally, the third part presents a List of References related with DSmT published or presented along the years since its inception in 2004, chronologically ordered

Human-AI Collaboration to Mitigate Decision Noise in Financial Underwriting: A Study on FinTech Innovation in a Lending Firm

Financial institutions have recognized the value of collaborating human expertise and AI to create high-performance augmented decision-support systems. Stakeholders at lending firms have increasingly acknowledged that plugging data into AI algorithms and eliminating the role of human underwriters by automation, with the expectation of immediate returns on investment from business process automation, is a flawed strategy. This research emphasizes the necessity of auditing the consistency of decisions (or professional judgment) made by human underwriters and monitoring the ability of data to capture the lending policies of a firm to lay a strong foundation for a legitimate system before investing millions in AI projects. The judgments made by experts in the past re-emerge in the future as outcomes or labels in the data used to train and evaluate algorithms. This paper presents Evidential Reasoning-eXplainer, a methodology to estimate probability mass as an extent of support for a given decision on a loan application by jointly assessing multiple independent and conflicting pieces of evidence. It quantifies variability in past decisions by comparing the subjective judgments of underwriters during manual financial underwriting with outcomes estimated from data. The consistency analysis improves decision quality by bridging the gap between past inconsistent decisions and desired ultimate-true decisions. A case study on a specialist lending firm demonstrates the strategic work plan adapted to configure underwriters and developers to capture the correct data and audit the quality of decisions

Cloud Broker Based Trust Assessment of Cloud Service Providers

Cloud computing is emerging as the future Internet technology due to its advantages such as sharing of IT resources, unlimited scalability and flexibility and high level of automation. Along the lines of rapid growth, the cloud computing technology also brings in concerns of security, trust and privacy of the applications and data that is hosted in the cloud environment. With large number of cloud service providers available, determining the providers that can be trusted for efficient operation of the service deployed in the provider’s environment is a key requirement for service consumers. In this thesis, we provide an approach to assess the trustworthiness of the cloud service providers. We propose a trust model that considers real-time cloud transactions to model the trustworthiness of the cloud service providers. The trust model uses the unique uncertainty model used in the representation of opinion. The Trustworthiness of a cloud service provider is modelled using opinion obtained from three different computations, namely (i) compliance of SLA (Service Level Agreement) parameters (ii) service provider satisfaction ratings and (iii) service provider behaviour. In addition to this the trust model is extended to encompass the essential Cloud characteristics, credibility for weighing the feedbacks and filtering mechanisms to filter the dubious feedback providers. The credibility function and the early filtering mechanisms in the extended trust model are shown to assist in the reduction of impact of malicious feedback providers

Risk prediction of product-harm events using rough sets and multiple classifier fusion:an experimental study of listed companies in China

With the increasing of frequency and destructiveness of product-harm events, study on enterprise crisis management becomes essentially important, but little literature thoroughly explores the risk prediction method of product-harm event. In this study, an initial index system for risk prediction was built based on the analysis of the key drivers of the product-harm event's evolution; ultimately, nine risk-forecasting indexes were obtained using rough set attribute reduction. With the four indexes of cumulative abnormal returns as the input, fuzzy clustering was used to classify the risk level of a product-harm event into four grades. In order to control the uncertainty and instability of single classifiers in risk prediction, multiple classifier fusion was introduced and combined with self-organising data mining (SODM). Further, an SODM-based multiple classifier fusion (SB-MCF) model was presented for the risk prediction related to a product-harm event. The experimental results based on 165 Chinese listed companies indicated that the SB-MCF model improved the average predictive accuracy and reduced variation degree simultaneously. The statistical analysis demonstrated that the SB-MCF model significantly outperformed six widely used single classification models (e.g. neural networks, support vector machine, and case-based reasoning) and other six commonly used multiple classifier fusion methods (e.g. majority voting, Bayesian method, and genetic algorithm)

Development and experimental validation of high performance embedded intelligence and fail-operational urban surround perception solutions of the PRYSTINE project

Automated Driving Systems (ADSs) commend a substantial reduction of human-caused road accidents while simultaneously lowering emissions, mitigating congestion, decreasing energy consumption and increasing overall productivity. However, achieving higher SAE levels of driving automation and complying with ISO26262 C and D Automotive Safety Integrity Levels (ASILs) is a multi-disciplinary challenge that requires insights into safety-critical architectures, multi-modal perception and real-time control. This paper presents an assorted effort carried out in the European H2020 ECSEL project—PRYSTINE. In this paper, we (1) investigate Simplex, 1oo2d and hybrid fail-operational computing architectures, (2) devise a multi-modal perception system with fail-safety mechanisms, (3) present a passenger vehicle-based demonstrator for low-speed autonomy and (4) suggest a trust-based fusion approach validated on a heavy-duty truck.</p

Towards Time-Aware Context-Aware Deep Trust Prediction in Online Social Networks

Trust can be defined as a measure to determine which source of information is reliable and with whom we should share or from whom we should accept information. There are several applications for trust in Online Social Networks (OSNs), including social spammer detection, fake news detection, retweet behaviour detection and recommender systems. Trust prediction is the process of predicting a new trust relation between two users who are not currently connected. In applications of trust, trust relations among users need to be predicted. This process faces many challenges, such as the sparsity of user-specified trust relations, the context-awareness of trust and changes in trust values over time. In this dissertation, we analyse the state-of-the-art in pair-wise trust prediction models in OSNs. We discuss three main challenges in this domain and present novel trust prediction approaches to address them. We first focus on proposing a low-rank representation of users that incorporates users' personality traits as additional information. Then, we propose a set of context-aware trust prediction models. Finally, by considering the time-dependency of trust relations, we propose a dynamic deep trust prediction approach. We design and implement five pair-wise trust prediction approaches and evaluate them with real-world datasets collected from OSNs. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approaches compared to other state-of-the-art pair-wise trust prediction models.Comment: 158 pages, 20 figures, and 19 tables. This is my PhD thesis in Macquarie University, Sydney, Australi

IoT and Sensor Networks in Industry and Society

The exponential progress of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is one of the main elements that fueled the acceleration of the globalization pace. Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data analytics are some of the key players of the digital transformation that is affecting every aspect of human's daily life, from environmental monitoring to healthcare systems, from production processes to social interactions. In less than 20 years, people's everyday life has been revolutionized, and concepts such as Smart Home, Smart Grid and Smart City have become familiar also to non-technical users. The integration of embedded systems, ubiquitous Internet access, and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communications have paved the way for paradigms such as IoT and Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) to be also introduced in high-requirement environments such as those related to industrial processes, under the forms of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT or I2oT) and Cyber-Physical Production Systems (CPPS). As a consequence, in 2011 the German High-Tech Strategy 2020 Action Plan for Germany first envisioned the concept of Industry 4.0, which is rapidly reshaping traditional industrial processes. The term refers to the promise to be the fourth industrial revolution. Indeed, the first industrial revolution was triggered by water and steam power. Electricity and assembly lines enabled mass production in the second industrial revolution. In the third industrial revolution, the introduction of control automation and Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) gave a boost to factory production. As opposed to the previous revolutions, Industry 4.0 takes advantage of Internet access, M2M communications, and deep learning not only to improve production efficiency but also to enable the so-called mass customization, i.e. the mass production of personalized products by means of modularized product design and flexible processes. Less than five years later, in January 2016, the Japanese 5th Science and Technology Basic Plan took a further step by introducing the concept of Super Smart Society or Society 5.0. According to this vision, in the upcoming future, scientific and technological innovation will guide our society into the next social revolution after the hunter-gatherer, agrarian, industrial, and information eras, which respectively represented the previous social revolutions. Society 5.0 is a human-centered society that fosters the simultaneous achievement of economic, environmental and social objectives, to ensure a high quality of life to all citizens. This information-enabled revolution aims to tackle today’s major challenges such as an ageing population, social inequalities, depopulation and constraints related to energy and the environment. Accordingly, the citizens will be experiencing impressive transformations into every aspect of their daily lives. This book offers an insight into the key technologies that are going to shape the future of industry and society. It is subdivided into five parts: the I Part presents a horizontal view of the main enabling technologies, whereas the II-V Parts offer a vertical perspective on four different environments. The I Part, dedicated to IoT and Sensor Network architectures, encompasses three Chapters. In Chapter 1, Peruzzi and Pozzebon analyse the literature on the subject of energy harvesting solutions for IoT monitoring systems and architectures based on Low-Power Wireless Area Networks (LPWAN). The Chapter does not limit the discussion to Long Range Wise Area Network (LoRaWAN), SigFox and Narrowband-IoT (NB-IoT) communication protocols, but it also includes other relevant solutions such as DASH7 and Long Term Evolution MAchine Type Communication (LTE-M). In Chapter 2, Hussein et al. discuss the development of an Internet of Things message protocol that supports multi-topic messaging. The Chapter further presents the implementation of a platform, which integrates the proposed communication protocol, based on Real Time Operating System. In Chapter 3, Li et al. investigate the heterogeneous task scheduling problem for data-intensive scenarios, to reduce the global task execution time, and consequently reducing data centers' energy consumption. The proposed approach aims to maximize the efficiency by comparing the cost between remote task execution and data migration. The II Part is dedicated to Industry 4.0, and includes two Chapters. In Chapter 4, Grecuccio et al. propose a solution to integrate IoT devices by leveraging a blockchain-enabled gateway based on Ethereum, so that they do not need to rely on centralized intermediaries and third-party services. As it is better explained in the paper, where the performance is evaluated in a food-chain traceability application, this solution is particularly beneficial in Industry 4.0 domains. Chapter 5, by De Fazio et al., addresses the issue of safety in workplaces by presenting a smart garment that integrates several low-power sensors to monitor environmental and biophysical parameters. This enables the detection of dangerous situations, so as to prevent or at least reduce the consequences of workers accidents. The III Part is made of two Chapters based on the topic of Smart Buildings. In Chapter 6, Petroșanu et al. review the literature about recent developments in the smart building sector, related to the use of supervised and unsupervised machine learning models of sensory data. The Chapter poses particular attention on enhanced sensing, energy efficiency, and optimal building management. In Chapter 7, Oh examines how much the education of prosumers about their energy consumption habits affects power consumption reduction and encourages energy conservation, sustainable living, and behavioral change, in residential environments. In this Chapter, energy consumption monitoring is made possible thanks to the use of smart plugs. Smart Transport is the subject of the IV Part, including three Chapters. In Chapter 8, Roveri et al. propose an approach that leverages the small world theory to control swarms of vehicles connected through Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication protocols. Indeed, considering a queue dominated by short-range car-following dynamics, the Chapter demonstrates that safety and security are increased by the introduction of a few selected random long-range communications. In Chapter 9, Nitti et al. present a real time system to observe and analyze public transport passengers' mobility by tracking them throughout their journey on public transport vehicles. The system is based on the detection of the active Wi-Fi interfaces, through the analysis of Wi-Fi probe requests. In Chapter 10, Miler et al. discuss the development of a tool for the analysis and comparison of efficiency indicated by the integrated IT systems in the operational activities undertaken by Road Transport Enterprises (RTEs). The authors of this Chapter further provide a holistic evaluation of efficiency of telematics systems in RTE operational management. The book ends with the two Chapters of the V Part on Smart Environmental Monitoring. In Chapter 11, He et al. propose a Sea Surface Temperature Prediction (SSTP) model based on time-series similarity measure, multiple pattern learning and parameter optimization. In this strategy, the optimal parameters are determined by means of an improved Particle Swarm Optimization method. In Chapter 12, Tsipis et al. present a low-cost, WSN-based IoT system that seamlessly embeds a three-layered cloud/fog computing architecture, suitable for facilitating smart agricultural applications, especially those related to wildfire monitoring. We wish to thank all the authors that contributed to this book for their efforts. We express our gratitude to all reviewers for the volunteering support and precious feedback during the review process. We hope that this book provides valuable information and spurs meaningful discussion among researchers, engineers, businesspeople, and other experts about the role of new technologies into industry and society