Quantitative Technology Forecasting: a Review of Trend Extrapolation Methods

Quantitative technology forecasting uses quantitative methods to understand and project technological changes. It is a broad field encompassing many different techniques and has been applied to a vast range of technologies. A widely used approach in this field is trend extrapolation. Based on the publications available to us, there has been little or no attempt made to systematically review the empirical evidence on quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. This study attempts to close this gap by conducting a systematic review of technology forecasting literature addressing the application of quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. We identified 25 studies relevant to the objective of this research and classified the techniques used in the studies into different categories, among which growth curves and time series methods were shown to remain popular over the past decade, while newer methods, such as machine learning-based hybrid models, have emerged in recent years. As more effort and evidence are needed to determine if hybrid models are superior to traditional methods, we expect to see a growing trend in the development and application of hybrid models to technology forecasting

An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)

© 2018 Elsevier Inc. The increasingly uncertain dynamics of technological change pose special challenges to traditional technology forecasting tools, which facilitates future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) tools to support the policy processes in the fields of science, technology & innovation (ST&I) and the management of technology (MOT), rather than merely forecasting incremental advances via analyses of continuous trends. Dye-sensitized solar cells are a promising third-generation photovoltaic technology that can add functionality and lower costs to enhance the value proposition of solar power generation in the early years of the 21st century. Through a series of technological forecasting studies analyzing the R&D patterns and trends in Dye-sensitized solar cells technology over the past several years, we have come to realize that validating previous forecasts is useful for improving ST&I policy processes. Yet, rarely do we revisit forecasts or projections to ascertain how well they fared. Moreover, few studies pay much attention to assessing FTA techniques. In this paper, we compare recent technology activities with previous forecasts to reveal the influencing factors that led to differences between past predictions and actual performance. Beyond our main aim of checking accuracy, in this paper we also wish to gain some sense of how valid those studies were and whether they proved useful to others in some ways

Text mining-based patent analysis of BIM application in construction

As a data tool applicable to the full life-cycle of construction engineering and management, Building Information Modeling (BIM) has great potential for significantly increasing project productivity and performance. Awareness of BIM application hotspots and forecasting its trends can drive innovations in construction field. Using patents as data resources, this study develops an effective framework integrating the citation network analysis and the topic clustering technology to identify BIM application information and forecast its trends. This framework comprises three-step analysis:(1) quantitative characteristic analysis of patent outputs; (2) Social Network Analysis (SNA)-based co-occurrence network analysis; and (3) identification of BIM topics using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Finally, the case demonstrates the effectiveness of this framework contributing to promote technological development and innovation of BIM. The contributions of this study are threefold: (1) an innovative text mining-based framework for BIM patent analysis in construction is developed; (2) patents that have focused on identifying the application hotspots and development trend of BIM in accordance with our developed framework are reviewed; and (3) a signpost for technological development and innovation of BIM is provided

Analysis of technological knowledge flows in the Basque Country

[EN] Knowledge flow of technology is important for continuous growth and extension of science. Patent data analysis has facilitated this knowledge acquisition. The available patent information crosses borders, corresponds and interacts with new inventions to give new strength and dimension to the technology. Therefore, the patent citation information functions as a key indicator of the knowledge flow providing relevant information. It can be identified to which extent a region is a relevant technological knowledge generator to other regions. As an illustrative case, we present a study to determine the role played by the Basque Country region as a generator of technological innovation during the period 1991-2011.Gavilanes-Trapote, J.; Etxeberria-Agiriano, I.; Cilleruelo, E.; Garechana, G. (2019). Analysis of technological knowledge flows in the Basque Country. International Journal of Production Management and Engineering. 7(Número Especial):73-79. https://doi.org/10.4995/ijpme.2019.10572SWORD73797Número EspecialAcs ZJ, Anselin L, Varga A (2002) Patents and innovation counts as measures of regional production of new knowledge Res. Policy 31:1069-1085. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(01)00184-6Balland, P., & Rigby, D. (2017). The geography of complex knowledge. Economic Geography, 93(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1080/00130095.2016.1205947Galvez, C., and Moya-Anegon, F. (2007). Standardizing formats of corporate source data. Scientometrics, 70(1), 3-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-007-0101-0Gavilanes-Trapote, J., Cilleruelo-Carrasco, E., Etxeberria-Agiriano, I., Garechana, G., Rodríguez Andara, A. (2019). Qualitative Patents Evaluation Through the Analysis of Their Citations. Case of the Technological Sectors in the Basque Country. In: Ortiz, Á., Andrés Romano, C., Poler, R., García-Sabater, J.P. (eds) Engineering Digital Transformation. Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96005-0_28Gavilanes-Trapote, J., Río-Belver, R. M., Cilleruelo, E., Garechana G., and Larruscain J. (2015). Patent overlay maps: Spain and the basque country. International Journal of Technology Management (IJTM), 69(3/4), 261. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTM.2015.072976Harhoff, D., Scherer, F., and Vopel, K. (2004). Citations, family size, opposition and the value of patent rights (vol 32, pg 1343, 2003). Research Policy, 33(2), 363-364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2003.10.001Higham, K.W., Governale, M., Jaffe, A.B., and Zülicke, U. (2017) Fame and obsolescence: Disentangling growth and aging dynamics of patent citations. Phys. Rev. E 95, 042309. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.95.042309Jaffe, A., Trajtenberg, M., and Fogarty, M. (2000). Knowledge spillovers and patent citations: Evidence from a survey of inventors. American Economic Review, 90(2), 215-218. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.2.215Krugman, P. (1995). Development, geography, and economic Theory. Cambridge-Massachusetts: The MIT Press.Malerba, F., and Orsenigo, L. (1995). Schumpeterian patterns of innovation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 19(1), 47-65. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035308Malmberg, A., and Maskell, P. (1997). Towards an explanation of regional specialization and industry agglomeration. European Planning Studies, 5(1), 25-41. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654319708720382Murata, Y., Nakajima, R., Okamoto, R., and Tamura, R. (2014). Localized knowledge spillovers and patent citations: A distance-based approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 96(5), 967-985. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00422Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2009). OECD patent statistics manual OECD.Podolny, J., Stuart, T., and Hannan, M. (1996). Networks, knowledge, and niches: Competition in the worldwide semiconductor industry, 1984-1991. American Journal of Sociology, 102(3), 659-689. https://doi.org/10.1086/230994Schmoch, U. (2003). Service marks as novel innovation indicator. Research Evaluation, 12(2), 149-156. https://doi.org/10.3152/147154403781776708Simmie, J. (2003). Innovation and urban regions as national and international nodes for the transfer and sharing of knowledge. Regional Studies, 37(6-7), 607-620. https://doi.org/10.1080/0034340032000108714Stek, P.E., and van Geenhuizen, M.S. (2016). The influence of international research interaction on national innovation performance: A bibliometric approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 110, 61-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.09.017Thompson, P., and Fox-Kean, M. (2005). Patent citations and the geography of knowledge spill-overs: A reassessment. American Economic Review, 95(1), 450-460. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828053828509Thompsori, P. (2006). Patent citations and the geography of knowledge spillovers: Evidence from inventor- and examiner-added citations. Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(2), 383-388. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.88.2.383You, H., Li, M., Hipel, K.W., Jiang, J., Ge, B., and Duan, H. (2017) Development trend forecasting for coherent light generator technology based on patent citation network analysis. Scientometrics 111(1), 297-315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-017-2252-

Emerging green technologies for vehicle propulsion systems

Highlights • Technological routes demonstrate that flow of knowledge is concentrated in patents developed in the same country • Strong presence of independent assignees (individuals) instead of firms • Major interest in technology development exclusively on each R&D without any collaborative efforts. • Most promising and emerging technologies for GVP systems are identified • A new taxonomy to technology innovators can be explored based on patent development

Notes on Emerging Technologies

This dissertation considers the impact of technology foresight in innovation within the context of a technology driven development. The main hypothesis made was that by using different methods of foresight in the industry level significant value could be created. The question was approached through a case study in portable fuel cell technology. The theoretical background of the study draws from Innovation, Product Development, Management of Technology, and Technology Foresight. The connection within the topics is made by analyzing foresight, not in a policy view as often done in Europe, but in a micro-level. Focusing mostly on how a technology driven development scenario could be analyzed. The study is based on a bibliometric, extrapolation and patent analysis within the context of a case study. In addition, a large two-year Delphi study was conducted. The study was finalized with a scenario work on the future possibilities of the case study technology. Original publications also consider several methodological issues. In the context of the case study, the study questions the practicality of establishing a portable fuel cell technology in Finland showing several impractical assumptions has been made. In a more conceptual level, the study makes notions on two underlying factors: policy-push technologies and growth of data. Policy-push questions in which level a policy effort towards a single technology is practical. The European foresight effort is more directed towards policy decisions in contrast to US foresight, which is to some extent corporate driven. Although the policy-based foresight has produced significant results in the European context, policy led efforts towards a single technology are challenging. Growth of data argues on the challenges produced by the large-scale application of quantitative measures of foresight. Bibliometric studies and trend extrapolations have been taken advantage of the increasing number of databases made available, and used these as the basis for forecasts. However, the relationship with actual development and quantitative evidence is still unproven.Siirretty Doriast

Bayesian inference of spatial and temporal relations in AI patents for EU countries

In the paper, we propose two models of Artificial Intelligence (AI) patents in European Union (EU) countries addressing spatial and temporal behaviour. In particular, the models can quantitatively describe the interaction between countries or explain the rapidly growing trends in AI patents. For spatial analysis Poisson regression is used to explain collaboration between a pair of countries measured by the number of common patents. Through Bayesian inference, we estimated the strengths of interactions between countries in the EU and the rest of the world. In particular, a significant lack of cooperation has been identified for some pairs of countries. Alternatively, an inhomogeneous Poisson process combined with the logistic curve growth accurately models the temporal behaviour by an accurate trend line. Bayesian analysis in the time domain revealed an upcoming slowdown in patenting intensity.The research was supported in part by PL-Grid Infrastructure, POWER 2014–2020 program and the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education with the subvention funds of the Faculty of Computer Science, Electronics and Telecommunications of AGH University.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Smart Energy Management for Smart Grids

This book is a contribution from the authors, to share solutions for a better and sustainable power grid. Renewable energy, smart grid security and smart energy management are the main topics discussed in this book

Networks and navigation in the knowledge economy: Studies on the structural conditions and consequences of path-dependent and relational action

In the wake of a relational turn, economic geographers have begun to scrutinize the relationships and interactions between people and organizations as a driving force behind economic processes at both global and local scales. Through a focus on contingent contextuality and path dependence, relational economic geography and network thinking have provided the necessary conceptual toolbox for untangling the structural effects and drivers of these relationships and their spatial embeddedness. However, despite the conceptual richness of the relational approach, empirical studies have often fallen short of capturing its core tenets: First, there is a prevalence to focus on places, infrastructures, and similarities as aggregate proxies for actors and their socio-economic relationships as the unit of geographical network analysis; While often convenient, this approach misses out on the capacity of networks to represent spatially embedded social contexts as enablers or constraints of economic action. Second, while path dependence is at the heart of evolutionary approaches towards economic geography, few studies actually trace how path-dependent and interrelated innovation shapes the long-term emergence of fields. Relational processes are especially salient when outcomes are opaque, decisions are interdependent, and when formal rules and roles are weak or absent. In this thesis, I ask how actors navigate such contexts and investigate the structural conditions and consequences of their navigation efforts. In my pursuit of this question, I draw on literatures from sociology, economics, and organization studies and build on novel methods of network analysis capable of empirically capturing contextuality and path dependence to investigate relational processes at three levels of economic activity: The thesis first looks towards a localized and informal trade platform to demonstrate how consumers rely on their former transactions to navigate exchange uncertainty and how such an exchange system can become liable to personal lock-in. It then moves on to show how the geographically and organizationally diversified search for innovation opportunities structures the transfer of knowledge across a globalized and partially informal corporate scouting community. Finally, the thesis shows how the linkage of distinct knowledge domains drives the long-term emergence of heterogeneous technological fields. In its endeavor to trace these processes, the thesis contributes a set of distinct relational research designs that demonstrate how advances in methods and data can be employed to empirically exploit the conceptual richness of relational economic geography

Aeronautical engineering: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 318)

This bibliography lists 217 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in June 1995. Subject coverage includes: design, construction and testing of aircraft and aircraft engines; aircraft components, equipment, and systems; ground support systems; and theoretical and applied aspects of aerodynamics and general fluid dynamics