Engaging stakeholders in using future scenarios to analyse the potential impacts of agricultural development in the Lake Victoria Basin

This report presents the proceedings from the inception workshop for the project “Engaging stakeholders in using future scenarios to analyse the potential impacts of agricultural development in the Lake Victoria Basin”. This two-year project (2015-2017) aims to ensure that land-use related decision-making in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) takes into consideration biodiversity and ecosystem services and is based on sound information and on the consideration of trade-offs between food production and conservation goals. The long-term outcome of the project will be a reduction in the adverse impacts of agricultural commodity developments on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being in the LVB

Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam

Global land-use allocation model linked to an integrated assessment model

We developed a global land-use allocation model that can be linked to integrated assessment models (IAMs) with a coarser spatial resolution. Using the model, we performed a downscaling of the IAMs' regional aggregated land-use projections to obtain a spatial land-use distribution, which could subsequently be used by Earth system models for global environmental assessments of ecosystem services, food security, and climate policies. Here we describe the land-use allocation model, discuss the verification of the downscaling technique, and explain the influences of the downscaling on estimates of land-use carbon emissions. A comparison of the emissions estimated with and without downscaling suggested that the land-use downscaling would help capture the spatial distribution of carbon stock density and regional heterogeneity of carbon emissions caused by cropland and pasture land expansion

Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal

For dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, long-term baseline construction is key and depends on the applied methods and the sources of projections considered. For dynamic CGE models, baseline assumptions and base data are both important determinants of results. This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams on baseline macroeconomic drivers, understood as factor accumulation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We critically review the various methods, identifying state-of-the-art practices and propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models, which is intended to help dynamic CGE modelers build their own baselines

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS. © 2019 Elsevier Lt

A protocol to develop shared socio-economic pathways for European agriculture

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections

<p>Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.</p

Urban agriculture in the Gauteng City-Region’s green infrastructure network

As cities in developing countries contend with the challenges of urbanisation, they need to rethink the traditional modes of urban planning and development. Part of this logic is the need to cater for growing populations without compromising urban environments or social development. A green infrastructure approach can help meet infrastructure and service needs while ensuring the proper functioning of natural ecological systems. As part of the green infrastructure network, urban agriculture can create multifunctional green assets in the form of urban farms and food gardens. When planned accordingly, urban agriculture can contribute to addressing a range of issues in the Gauteng City-Region (GCR). The aim of this occasional paper is to gain a better understanding of urban agriculture within the green infrastructure network in the City of Johannesburg and to identify the range of ecosystem services that could be delivered when maintaining and investing in these assets. The analysis in this paper adopts a multi-method approach to (1) identify the interlinkages between urban agriculture and social, economic and environmental systems in the City of Johannesburg; (2) validate these critical interlinkages with stakeholder input and ground-level experience of urban agriculture; and (3) visualise these interlinkages through a spatial analysis of food gardens in the City of Johannesburg. This paper builds the argument that urban agriculture is a multifunctional element of the green infrastructure network in the GCR. It is worth maintaining and investing in food gardens because they contribute to a number of development imperatives in Gauteng. Food gardens may enhance food security by broadening the range of locally produced food sources that improve the potential to help the poor to access fresh food. Productive food gardens may provide economic opportunities, particularly in areas with minimal access to retail outlets and where unemployment is high. Lastly, as a component of a green infrastructure network, food gardens also help strengthen the provision of a range of key ecosystem services. Inter alia they help address climate change and build disaster resilience through flood management and carbon capture. Of course, urban agriculture will not deal with any of these challenges in their entirety, but within a wider green infrastructure approach, it has the potential to contribute significantly if it can be mainstreamed into municipal development processes. Realising the benefits of green infrastructure hinges on integrating this approach into municipal planning in a way that aims to improve the productivity of ecosystem service delivery. The paper concludes with recommendations for strengthening policy, management, planning and operational support for food gardens in the GCR