280 research outputs found
An Early Warning System for Detecting H1N1 Disease Outbreak - A Spatio-temporal Approach
The outbreaks of new and emerging infectious diseases in recent decades have caused widespread social and economic disruptions in the global economy. Various guidelines for pandemic influenza planning are based upon traditional infection control, best practice and evidence. This article describes the development of an early warning system for detecting disease outbreaks in the urban setting of Hong Kong, using 216 confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza from 1 May 2009 to 20 June 2009. The prediction model uses two variables – daily influenza cases and population numbers – as input to the spatio-temporal and stochastic SEIR model to forecast impending disease cases. The fairly encouraging forecast accuracy metrics for the 1- and 2-day advance prediction suggest that the number of impending cases could be estimated with some degree of certainty. Much like a weather forecast system, the procedure combines technical and scientific skills using empirical data but the interpretation requires experience and intuitive reasoning.postprin
Towards cross-lingual alerting for bursty epidemic events
Background: Online news reports are increasingly becoming a source for event
based early warning systems that detect natural disasters. Harnessing the
massive volume of information available from multilingual newswire presents as
many challenges as opportunities due to the patterns of reporting complex
spatiotemporal events. Results: In this article we study the problem of
utilising correlated event reports across languages. We track the evolution of
16 disease outbreaks using 5 temporal aberration detection algorithms on
text-mined events classified according to disease and outbreak country. Using
ProMED reports as a silver standard, comparative analysis of news data for 13
languages over a 129 day trial period showed improved sensitivity, F1 and
timeliness across most models using cross-lingual events. We report a detailed
case study analysis for Cholera in Angola 2010 which highlights the challenges
faced in correlating news events with the silver standard. Conclusions: The
results show that automated health surveillance using multilingual text mining
has the potential to turn low value news into high value alerts if informed
choices are used to govern the selection of models and data sources. An
implementation of the C2 alerting algorithm using multilingual news is
available at the BioCaster portal http://born.nii.ac.jp/?page=globalroundup
Biosurveillance: Detecting, Tracking, and Mitigating the Effects of Natural Disease and Bioterrorism
Encyclopedia of Operations Research and the Management Sciences, Cochran, J.J. (ed.), John Wiley & Sons Ltd.The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470400531Biosurveillance is the regular collection, analysis, and interpretation of health and health related data for indicators of diseases and other outbreaks by public health organizations. Motivated by the threat of bioterrorism, biosurviellance systems are being developed and implemented around the world. The goal of these systems has been expanded to include both early event detection and situational awareness, so that the focus is not simply on detection, but also on response and consequence management. Whether they rae useful for detecting bioterrorism or not, there seems to be consensus that these biosurveillance systems are likely to be useful for detecting bioterrorism or not, there seems to be consensus that these biosurveillance systems are likely to be useful for detecting and responding to naural disease outbreaks such as seasonal and pandemic flu, and thus they have potential to significantly advance and modernize the practice of public health surveillance
When Infodemic Meets Epidemic: a Systematic Literature Review
Epidemics and outbreaks present arduous challenges requiring both individual
and communal efforts. Social media offer significant amounts of data that can
be leveraged for bio-surveillance. They also provide a platform to quickly and
efficiently reach a sizeable percentage of the population, hence their
potential impact on various aspects of epidemic mitigation. The general
objective of this systematic literature review is to provide a methodical
overview of the integration of social media in different epidemic-related
contexts. Three research questions were conceptualized for this review,
resulting in over 10000 publications collected in the first PRISMA stage, 129
of which were selected for inclusion. A thematic method-oriented synthesis was
undertaken and identified 5 main themes related to social media enabled
epidemic surveillance, misinformation management, and mental health. Findings
uncover a need for more robust applications of the lessons learned from
epidemic post-mortem documentation. A vast gap exists between retrospective
analysis of epidemic management and result integration in prospective studies.
Harnessing the full potential of social media in epidemic related tasks
requires streamlining the results of epidemic forecasting, public opinion
understanding and misinformation propagation, all while keeping abreast of
potential mental health implications. Pro-active prevention has thus become
vital for epidemic curtailment and containment
Public Health
Twitter, crowdsourcing, and other medical technology inventions producing real-time geolocated streams of personalized data have changed the way we
think about health (Kostkova 2015). However, Twitter’s strength is its two-way communication nature – both as a health information source but also as a central
hub for the creation and dissemination of media health coverage. Health authorities, insurance companies, marketing agencies, and individuals can
leverage the availability of large datasets from Twitter to improve early warning services and preparedness, aid disease prevalence mapping, and provide
personal targeted health advice, as well as in"uence public sentiment about major health interventions. However, despite the growing potential, there are
still many challenges to address to develop robust and reliable systems integrating Twitter streams to real-world provision of healthcare
Deviations in influenza seasonality: odd coincidence or obscure consequence?
AbstractIn temperate regions, influenza typically arrives with the onset of colder weather. Seasonal waves travel over large spaces covering many climatic zones in a relatively short period of time. The precise mechanism for this striking seasonal pattern is still not well understood, and the interplay of factors that influence the spread of infection and the emergence of new strains is largely unknown. The study of influenza seasonality has been fraught with problems. One of these is the ever-shifting description of illness resulting from influenza and the use of both the historical definitions and new definitions based on actual isolation of the virus. The compilation of records describing influenza oscillations on a local and global scale is massive, but the value of these data is a function of the definitions used. In this review, we argue that observations of both seasonality and deviation from the expected pattern stem from the nature of this disease. Heterogeneity in seasonal patterns may arise from differences in the behaviour of specific strains, the emergence of a novel strain, or cross-protection from previously observed strains. Most likely, the seasonal patterns emerge from interactions of individual factors behaving as coupled resonators. We emphasize that both seasonality and deviations from it may merely be reflections of our inability to disentangle signal from noise, because of ambiguity in measurement and/or terminology. We conclude the review with suggestions for new promising and realistic directions with tangible consequences for the modelling of complex influenza dynamics in order to effectively control infection
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