MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was considered as the optimum length of time. Given the assumption that the Markov chain model is the right model for daily precipitation occurrence, the choice of Markov model order was examined on a daily basis for 4 synoptic weather stations with different climates in Iran (Gorgan, Khorram Abad, Zahedan, Tabriz)during 1978-2009. Based on probability rules, events possibility of sequential dry and wet days, these data were analyzed by stochastic process and Markov Chain method. Then probability matrix was calculated by maximum likelihood method. The possibility continuing2-5days of dry and wet days were calculated. The results showed that the probability maximum of consecutive dry period and climatic probability of dry days has occurred in Zahedan. The probability of consecutive dry period has fluctuated from 73.3 to 100 percent. Climatic probability of occurrence of dry days would change in the range of 70.96 to 100 percent with the average probability of about 90.45 percent

Novel 5-oxo-hexahydroquinoline derivatives: design, synthesis, in vitro P-glycoprotein-mediated multidrug resistance reversal profile and molecular dynamics simulation study

Overexpression of the efflux pump P-glycoprotein (P-gp) is one of the important mechanisms of multidrug resistance (MDR) in many tumor cells. In this study, 26 novel 5-oxo-hexahydroquinoline derivatives containing different nitrophenyl moieties at C-4 and various carboxamide substituents at C-3 were designed, synthesized and evaluated for their ability to inhibit P-gp by measuring the amount of rhodamine 123 (Rh123) accumulation in uterine sarcoma cells that overexpress P-gp (MES-SA/Dx5) using flow cytometry. The effect of compounds with highest MDR reversal activities was further evaluated by measuring the alterations of MES-SA/Dx5 cells' sensitivity to doxorubicin (DXR) using MTT assay. The results of both biological assays indicated that compounds bearing 2-nitrophenyl at C-4 position and compounds with 4-chlorophenyl carboxamide at C-3 demonstrated the highest activities in resistant cells, while they were devoid of any effect in parental nonresistant MES-SA cells. One of the active derivatives, 5c, significantly increased intracellular Rh123 at 100 mu M, and it also significantly reduced the IC50 of DXR by 70.1% and 88.7% at 10 and 25 mu M, respectively, in MES-SA/Dx5 cells. The toxicity of synthesized compounds against HEK293 as a noncancer cell line was also investigated. All tested derivatives except for 2c compound showed no cytotoxicity. A molecular dynamics simulation study was also performed to investigate the possible binding site of 5c in complex with human P-gp, which showed that this compound formed 11 average H-bonds with Ser909, Thr911, Arg547, Arg543 and Ser474 residues of P-gp. A good agreement was found between the results of the computational and experimental studies. The findings of this study show that some 5-oxo-hexahydroquinoline derivatives could serve as promising candidates for the discovery of new agents for P-gp-mediated MDR reversal

Factors underlying life quality in urban contexts: Evidence from an industrial city (arak, iran)

Cities play a vital role in local development providing a high education level, specialized jobs and advanced services. When assessing living conditions and wellbeing in cities, economic indicators alone are generally unable to evaluate the inherent complexity of the 'quality of life' issue in urban environments. With rapid urbanization, shortage of infrastructures and services emerged in metropolitan regions of developing countries, leading to disadvantaged settlements, urban poverty, lower citizens' satisfaction, and an overall decline in life quality. Based on these premises, the present study illustrates a subjective investigation of life quality in an emerging economy such as Iran, focusing on Arak, the fourth largest industrial pole of the country. Based on a literature review on quality of life in industrial cities of emerging economies, subjective indicators of citizens' satisfaction on living quality in Arak were identified and quantified using empirical results from a field survey. Results of our study show that the overall satisfaction for living quality in Arak is rather low, reaching the lowest rank in the issues of environmental sanitation and public transportation. Lack of investments in urban infrastructure justifies the low citizens' perception of life quality in Arak city. The paper concludes outlining the urgent need of homogeneous and comparable macro-and micro-data on multiple aspects of quality of life at both city-level and metropolitan-level in emerging economies

Positive effect of low dose vitamin D supplementation on growth of fetal bones: A randomized prospective study

The effect of vitamin D supplementation on growth of fetal bones during pregnancy is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of low dose vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy on bony anthropometric aspects of the fetus. In this prospective randomized trial, 140 patients were divided into two equally matched groups according to age, 25(OH)D level, exercise, and dietary intake. Then 1000 IU per day vitamin D supplement was given to the intervention group while the control group received placebo. Then crown-rump length (CRL) and femur length (FL) during the first trimester and humerus and femur lengths as well as their proximal metaphyseal diameter (PMD), midshaft diameter (MSD) and distal metaphyseal diameter (DMD) in the second and third trimester were measured using ultrasonography technique. Finally, no significant difference was observed for CRL (p = 0.93). Although FL was not statistically significant in the first trimester (p = 0.54), its measurement in the intervention group and the control group in the second (28.87 ± 2.14 vs. 26.89 ± 2.08; p ≤0.001) and the third (65.31 ± 2.17 vs. 62.85 ± 1.94; p ≤0.001) trimesters was significantly different. Femoral PMD, MSD, and DMD measurement increased more in the intervention group in comparison with the control group with P values <0.05. HL measurement in the intervention group and the control group in the second (28.62 ± 1.94 vs. 27.23 ± 2.08; p ≤0.001) and the third (61.29 ± 2.84 vs. 59.85 ± 1.79; p ≤0.001) trimesters revealed significant differences. Humeral PMD, MSD, and DMD measurement increased in the intervention group in comparison with the control group with P values <0.001 for all. It is suggested to prescribe low dose vitamin D (1000 IU per day) from early pregnancy with possible increment in length and diameter of femur and humerus bones of the fetus

Classification of coastal-marine habitats in Gwatr Bay using ecological standard classification (CMECS)

This research was conducted during 2007-2008 with the main aim of classifying marine coastal habitats in Gwatr Bay located in Iran-Pakistan border, south east of Sistan-Blaluchetan Province. We used Coastal-Marine Ecological Standard Classification (CMECS) with three data layers covering water column, benthic cover classifier and geomorphology. Layers and habitats information were analyzed in a GIS environment and the indicator species were determined. WCC classification was done based on temperature, salinity and clarity classifiers for Ichthyoplankton communities. The result showed that two main seasonal habitats including spring habitat (spring, summer and winter) and fall habitat, affected by the monsoon season is present in the area. Also we considered particle size and total organic matter in sediment as classifiers for benthic habitats which indicated two different habitats based on distances from shore. Habitats were divided into unmixed macro-benthos community (polychaete) and mixed macro-benthos community including: Polychaete, Amphipoda and Gastropoda. The habitats were shown on digital GIS maps with their specific codes

COVID-19 under spotlight: A close look at the origin, transmission, diagnosis, and treatment of the 2019-nCoV disease

Months after the outbreak of a new flu-like disease in China, the entire world is now in a state of caution. The subsequent less-anticipated propagation of the novel coronavirus disease, formally known as COVID-19, not only made it to headlines by an overwhelmingly high transmission rate and fatality reports, but also raised an alarm for the medical community all around the globe. Since the causative agent, SARS-CoV-2, is a recently discovered species, there is no specific medicine for downright treatment of the infection. This has led to an unprecedented societal fear of the newly born disease, adding a psychological aspect to the physical manifestation of the virus. Herein, the COVID-19 structure, epidemiology, pathogenesis, etiology, diagnosis, and therapy have been reviewed. © 2020 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Dynamic control of proinflammatory cytokines Il-1β and Tnf-α by macrophages in zebrafish spinal cord regeneration

Spinal cord injury leads to a massive response of innate immune cells in non-regenerating mammals, but also in successfully regenerating zebrafish. However, the role of the immune response in successful regeneration is poorly defined. Here we show that inhibiting inflammation reduces and promoting it accelerates axonal regeneration in spinal-lesioned zebrafish larvae. Mutant analyses show that peripheral macrophages, but not neutrophils or microglia, are necessary for repair. Macrophage-less irf8 mutants show prolonged inflammation with elevated levels of Tnf-α and Il-1β. Inhibiting Tnf-α does not rescue axonal growth in irf8 mutants, but impairs it in wildtype animals, indicating a pro-regenerative role of Tnf-α. In contrast, decreasing Il-1β levels or number of Il-1β+ neutrophils rescue functional regeneration in irf8 mutants. However, during early regeneration, interference with Il-1β function impairs regeneration in irf8 and wildtype animals. Hence, inflammation is dynamically controlled by macrophages to promote functional spinal cord regeneration in zebrafish

Association between perineal trauma and pain in primiparous women

Objective To identify the association between perineal trauma and pain in 473 primiparous women. Method Cross-sectional study in which pain was measured by the numerical pain scale (0 to 10 - 0 being no pain and 10 maximal pain). Results The prevalence and mean intensity of pain were 33.0% and 4.7 points (standard deviation = 2.0) in the numeric scale, respectively. Episiotomy represented the most frequent trauma (46.7%). The occurrence and intensity of the pain were associated with perineal trauma and postpartum time. Having perineal trauma tripled the chance of pain. Each hour elapsed following the birth reduced the chance of pain by 4.8%. Conclusion Primiparous women are subject to a high frequency of perineal trauma, with episiotomy being the most prominent. Perineal pain affects approximately one-third of primiparous women and is associated with the postpartum time and perineal traumas

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions