Evaluating two methods of estimating error variances using simulated data sets with known errors

In this paper we compare two different methods of estimating the error variances of two or more independent data sets. One method, called the three-cornered hat (3CH) method, requires three data sets. Another method, which we call the two-cornered hat (2CH) method, requires only two data sets. Both methods have been used in previous studies to estimate the error variances associated with a number of physical and geophysical data sets. A key assumption in both methods is that the errors of the data sets are not correlated, although some studies have considered the effect of the partial correlation of representativeness errors in two or more of the data sets.We compare the 3CH and 2CH methods using a simple model to simulate three and two data sets with various error correlations and biases. With this model, we know the exact error variances and covariances, which we use to assess the accuracy of the 3CH and 2CH estimates. We examine the sensitivity of the estimated error variances to the degree of error correlation between two of the data sets as well as the sample size. We find that the 3CH method is less sensitive to these factors than the 2CH method and hence is more accurate. We also find that biases in one of the data sets has a minimal effect on the 3CH method, but can produce large errors in the 2CH method.</p

Population density and group size effects on reproductive behavior in a simultaneous hermaphrodite

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite growing evidence that population dynamic processes can have substantial effects on mating system evolution, little is known about their effect on mating rates in simultaneous hermaphrodites. According to theory, mating rate is expected to increase with mate availability because mating activity is primarily controlled by the male sexual function. A different scenario appears plausible in the hermaphroditic opisthobranch <it>Chelidonura sandrana</it>. Here, field mating rates are close to the female fitness optimum, suggesting that mating activity remains unresponsive to variation in mate availability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Applying an experimental design that aims at independent experimental manipulation of density and social group size, we find substantial increases in mate encounter rate with both factors, but no statistically detectable effects on mating rate in <it>C. sandrana</it>. Instead, mating rate remained close to the earlier determined female fitness optimum.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We demonstrate that mating rate in <it>C. sandrana </it>is largely unresponsive to variation in mate availability and is maintained close to the female fitness optimum. These findings challenge the prevailing notion of male driven mating rates in simultaneous hermaphrodites and call for complementary investigations of mating rate effects on fitness through the male sexual function.</p

The interplay between helicity and rotation in turbulence: implications for scaling laws and small-scale dynamics

Invariance properties of physical systems govern their behavior: energy conservation in turbulence drives a wide distribution of energy among modes, observed in geophysical or astrophysical flows. In ideal hydrodynamics, the role of helicity conservation (correlation between velocity and its curl, measuring departures from mirror symmetry) remains unclear since it does not alter the energy spectrum. However, with solid body rotation, significant differences emerge between helical and non-helical flows. We first outline several results, like the energy and helicity spectral distribution and the breaking of strict universality for the individual spectra. Using massive numerical simulations, we then show that small-scale structures and their intermittency properties differ according to whether helicity is present or not, in particular with respect to the emergence of Beltrami-core vortices (BCV) that are laminar helical vertical updrafts. These results point to the discovery of a small parameter besides the Rossby number; this could relate the problem of rotating helical turbulence to that of critical phenomena, through renormalization group and weak turbulence theory. This parameter can be associated with the adimensionalized ratio of the energy to helicity flux to small scales, the three-dimensional energy cascade being weak and self-similar

Challenges of a Sustained Climate Observing System

Observations of planet Earth and especially all climate system components and forcings are increasingly needed for planning and informed decision making related to climate services in the broadest sense. Although significant progress has been made, much more remains to be done before a fully functional and dependable climate observing system exists. Observations are needed on spatial scales from local to global, and all time scales, especially to understand and document changes in extreme events. Climate change caused by human activities adds a new dimension and a vital imperative: to acquire climate observations of sufficient quality and coverage, and analyze them into products for multiple purposes to inform decisions for mitigation, adaptation, assessing vulnerability and impacts, possible geoengineering, and predicting climate variability and change and their consequences. A major challenge is to adequately deal with the continually changing observing system, especially from satellites and other remote sensing platforms such as in the ocean, in order to provide a continuous climate record. Even with new computational tools, challenges remain to provide adequate analysis, processing, meta-data, archival, access, and management of the resulting data and the data products. As volumes of data continue to grow, so do the challenges of distilling information to allow us to understand what is happening and why, and what the implications are for the future. The case is compelling that prompt coordinated international actions are essential to provide for information-based actions and decisions related to climate variability and change

Accessory male investment can undermine the evolutionary stability of simultaneous hermaphroditism

Sex allocation (SA) models are traditionally based on the implicit assumption that hermaphroditism must meet criteria that make it stable against transition to dioecy. This, however, puts serious constraints on the adaptive values that SA can attain. A transition to gonochorism may, however, be impossible in many systems and therefore realized SA in hermaphrodites may not be limited by conditions that guarantee stability against dioecy. We here relax these conditions and explore how sexual selection on male accessory investments (e.g. a penis) that offer a paternity benefit affects the evolutionary stable strategy SA in outcrossing, simultaneous hermaphrodites. Across much of the parameter space, our model predicts male allocations well above 50 per cent. These predictions can help to explain apparently ‘maladaptive’ hermaphrodite systems

An events based algorithm for distributing concurrent tasks on multi-core architectures

In this paper, a programming model is presented which enables scalable parallel performance on multi-core shared memory architectures. The model has been developed for application to a wide range of numerical simulation problems. Such problems involve time stepping or iteration algorithms where synchronization of multiple threads of execution is required. It is shown that traditional approaches to parallelism including message passing and scatter-gather can be improved upon in terms of speed-up and memory management. Using spatial decomposition to create orthogonal computational tasks, a new task management algorithm called H-Dispatch is developed. This algorithm makes efficient use of memory resources by limiting the need for garbage collection and takes optimal advantage of multiple cores by employing a “hungry” pull strategy. The technique is demonstrated on a simple finite difference solver and results are compared to traditional MPI and scatter-gather approaches. The H-Dispatch approach achieves near linear speed-up with results for efficiency of 85% on a 24-core machine. It is noted that the H-Dispatch algorithm is quite general and can be applied to a wide class of computational tasks on heterogeneous architectures involving multi-core and GPGPU hardware.Schlumberger-Doll Research CenterSaudi Aramc

GNSS remote sensing of the Australian tropopause

Radio occultation (RO) techniques that use signals transmitted by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have emerged over the past decade as an important tool for measuring global changes in tropopause temperature and height, a valuable capacity given the tropopause’s sensitivity to temperature variations. This study uses 45,091 RO data from the CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload, 80 months), GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment, 23 months) and COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate, 20 months) satellites to analyse the variability of the tropopause’s height and temperature over Australia. GNSS RO temperature profiles from CHAMP, GRACE, and COSMIC are first validated using radiosonde observations provided by the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia). These are compared to RO soundings from between 2001 and 2007 that occurred within 3 h and 100 km of a radiosonde.The results indicate that RO soundings provide data of a comparable quality to radiosonde observations in the tropopause region, with temperature deviations of less than 0.5 ± 1.5 K. An analysis of tropopause height and temperature anomalies indicates a height increase over Australia as a whole of ca. 4.8 ± 1.3 m between September 2001 and April 2008, with a corresponding temperature decrease of −0.019 ± 0.007 K. A similar pattern of increasing height/decreasing temperature was generally observed when determining the spatial distribution of the tropopause height and temperature rate of change over Australia. Although only a short period has been considered in this study, a function of the operating time of these satellites, the results nonetheless show an increase in the height of the tropopause over Australia during this period and thus may indicate regional warming. Several mechanisms could be responsible for these changes, such as an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and lower stratospheric cooling due to ozone loss, both of which have been observed during the last decades

Using MM5 to hindcast the ocean surface forcing fields over the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank Region

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2005. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 22 (2005): 131–145, doi:10.1175/JTECH-1682.1.The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is applied to the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank (GoM/GB) region. This model is configured with two numerical domains with horizontal resolutions of 30 and 10 km, respectively, and driven by the NCAR-Eta weather model through a nested grid approach. Comparison of model-computed winds, wind stress, and heat flux with in situ data collected on moored meteorological buoys in the western GoM and over GB in 1995 shows that during the passage of atmospheric fronts over this region, MM5 provides a reasonable prediction of wind speed but not wind direction, and provides a relatively accurate estimation of longwave radiation but overestimates sensible and latent fluxes. The nudging data assimilation approach with inclusion of in situ wind data significantly improves the accuracy of the predicted wind speed and direction. Incorporation of the Fairall et al. air–sea flux algorithms with inclusion of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived SST improves the accuracy of the predicted latent and sensible heat fluxes in the GoM/GB region for both stable and unstable weather conditions.This research was supported by the U.S. GLOBEC Northwest Atlantic/Georges Bank program through NSF Grants OCE 02-34545 and OCE 02-27679, NOAA Grant NA 16092323, and NSF CoOP Grant OCE 01-96543 to C. Chen, and NSF Grant OCE 02-27679 to R. C. Beardsley. Song Hu was supported by a SMAST graduate scholarship from NASA Grant NAG 13-02042, and Qichun Xu was supported by Chen’s NSF and NOAA grants mentioned above. Huichan Lin was supported by the Georgia DNR Grants 024409-01 and 026450-01

Electron density extrapolation above F2 peak by the linear Vary-Chap model supporting new Global Navigation Satellite Systems-LEO occultation missions

The new radio-occultation (RO) instrument on board the future EUMETSAT Polar System-Second Generation (EPS-SG) satellites, flying at a height of 820 km, is primarily focusing on neutral atmospheric profiling. It will also provide an opportunity for RO ionospheric sounding, but only below impact heights of 500 km, in order to guarantee a full data gathering of the neutral part. This will leave a gap of 320 km, which impedes the application of the direct inversion techniques to retrieve the electron density profile. To overcome this challenge, we have looked for new ways (accurate and simple) of extrapolating the electron density (also applicable to other low-Earth orbiting, LEO, missions like CHAMP): a new Vary-Chap Extrapolation Technique (VCET). VCET is based on the scale height behavior, linearly dependent on the altitude above hmF2. This allows extrapolating the electron density profile for impact heights above its peak height (this is the case for EPS-SG), up to the satellite orbital height. VCET has been assessed with more than 3700 complete electron density profiles obtained in four representative scenarios of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) in the United States and the Formosa Satellite Mission 3 (FORMOSAT-3) in Taiwan, in solar maximum and minimum conditions, and geomagnetically disturbed conditions, by applying an updated Improved Abel Transform Inversion technique to dual-frequency GPS measurements. It is shown that VCET performs much better than other classical Chapman models, with 60% of occultations showing relative extrapolation errors below 20%, in contrast with conventional Chapman model extrapolation approaches with 10% or less of the profiles with relative error below 20%.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version