Overdiagnosis in organised mammography screening in Denmark. A comparative study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overdiagnosis in cancer screening is the detection of cancer lesions that would otherwise not have been detected. It is arguably the most important harm. We quantified overdiagnosis in the Danish mammography screening programme, which is uniquely suited for this purpose, as only 20% of the Danish population has been offered organised mammography screening over a long time-period.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We collected incidence rates of carcinoma in situ and invasive breast cancer in areas with and without screening over 13 years with screening (1991-2003), and 20 years before its introduction (1971-1990). We explored the incidence increase comparing unadjusted incidence rates and used Poisson regression analysis to compensate for the background incidence trend, variation in age distribution and geographical variation in incidence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the screened age group, 50 to 69 years, we found an overdiagnosis of 35% when we compared unadjusted incidence rates for the screened and non-screened areas, but after compensating for a small decline in incidence in older, previously screened women. Our adjusted Poisson regression analysis indicated a relative risk of 1.40 (95% CI: 1.35-1.45) for the whole screening period, and a potential compensatory drop in older women of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.88-0.96), yielding an overdiagnosis of 33%, which we consider the most reliable estimate. The drop in previously screened women was only present in one of the two screened regions and was small in absolute numbers.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>One in four breast cancers diagnosed in the screened age group in the Danish screening programme is overdiagnosed. Our estimate for Denmark is lower than that for comparable countries, likely because of lower uptake, lower recall rates and lower detection rates of carcinoma in situ.</p

Stellar Population Diagnostics of Elliptical Galaxy Formation

Major progress has been achieved in recent years in mapping the properties of passively-evolving, early-type galaxies (ETG) from the local universe all the way to redshift ~2. Here, age and metallicity estimates for local cluster and field ETGs are reviewed as based on color-magnitude, color-sigma, and fundamental plane relations, as well as on spectral-line indices diagnostics. The results of applying the same tools at high redshifts are then discussed, and their consistency with the low-redshift results is assessed. Most low- as well as high-redshift (z~1) observations consistently indicate 1) a formation redshift z>~3 for the bulk of stars in cluster ETGs, with their counterparts in low-density environments being on average ~1-2 Gyr younger, i.e., formed at z>~1.5-2, 2) the duration of the major star formation phase anticorrelates with galaxy mass, and the oldest stellar populations are found in the most massive galaxies. With increasing redshift there is evidence for a decrease in the number density of ETGs, especially of the less massive ones, whereas existing data appear to suggest that most of the most-massive ETGs were already fully assembled at z~1. Beyond this redshift, the space density of ETGs starts dropping significantly, and as ETGs disappear, a population of massive, strongly clustered, starburst galaxies progressively becomes more and more prominent, which makes them the likely progenitors to ETGs.Comment: To appear on Annual Review of Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 44 (2006). 46 pages with 16 figures. Replaced version includes updated references, few typos less, and replaces Fig. 11 and Fig. 16 which had been skrewed u

Are benefits and harms in mammography screening given equal attention in scientific articles? A cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The CONSORT statement specifies the need for a balanced presentation of both benefits and harms of medical interventions in trial reports. However, invitations to screening and newspaper articles often emphasize benefits and downplay or omit harms, and it is known that scientific articles can be influenced by conflicts of interest. We wanted to determine if a similar imbalance occurs in scientific articles on mammography screening and if it is related to author affiliation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched PubMed in April 2005 for articles on mammography screening that mentioned a benefit or a harm and that were published in 2004 in English. Data extraction was performed by three independent investigators, two unblinded and one blinded for article contents, and author names and affiliation, as appropriate. The extracted data were compared and discrepancies resolved by two investigators in a combined analysis. We defined three groups of authors: (1) authors in specialties unrelated to mammography screening, (2) authors in screening-affiliated specialties (radiology or breast cancer surgery) who were not working with screening, or authors funded by cancer charities, and (3) authors (at least one) working directly with mammography screening programmes. We used a data extraction sheet with 17 items described as important benefits and harms in the 2002 WHO/IARC-report on breast cancer screening.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 854 articles, and 143 were eligible for the study. Most were original research. Benefits were mentioned more often than harms (96% vs 62%, P < 0.001). Fifty-five (38%) articles mentioned only benefits, whereas seven (5%) mentioned only harms (P < 0.001). Overdiagnosis was mentioned in 35 articles (24%), but was more often downplayed or rejected in articles that had authors working with screening, (6/15; 40%) compared with authors affiliated by specialty or funding (1/6; 17%), or authors unrelated with screening (1/14; 7%) (P = 0.03). Benefits in terms of reduced breast cancer mortality were mentioned in 109 (76%) articles, and was more often provided as a relative risk reduction than an absolute risk reduction, where quantified (45 articles (31%) versus 6 articles (3%) (P < 0.001)).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Scientific articles tend to emphasize the major benefits of mammography screening over its major harms. This imbalance is related to the authors' affiliation.</p

Herschel Observations of a Potential Core Forming Clump: Perseus B1-E

We present continuum observations of the Perseus B1-E region from the Herschel Gould Belt Survey. These Herschel data reveal a loose grouping of substructures at 160 - 500 micron not seen in previous submillimetre observations. We measure temperature and column density from these data and select the nine densest and coolest substructures for follow-up spectral line observations with the Green Bank Telescope. We find that the B1-E clump has a mass of ~ 100 solar masses and appears to be gravitationally bound. Furthermore, of the nine substructures examined here, one substructure (B1-E2) appears to be itself bound. The substructures are typically less than a Jeans length from their nearest neighbour and thus, may interact on a timescale of ~ 1 Myr. We propose that B1-E may be forming a first generation of dense cores, which could provide important constraints on the initial conditions of prestellar core formation. Our results suggest that B1-E may be influenced by a strong, localized magnetic field, but further observations are still required.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, published in A&A: Minor calibration correctio

An investigation of the apparent breast cancer epidemic in France: screening and incidence trends in birth cohorts

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Official descriptive data from France showed a strong increase in breast-cancer incidence between 1980 to 2005 without a corresponding change in breast-cancer mortality. This study quantifies the part of incidence increase due to secular changes in risk factor exposure and in overdiagnosis due to organised or opportunistic screening. Overdiagnosis was defined as non progressive tumours diagnosed as cancer at histology or progressive cancer that would remain asymptomatic until time of death for another cause.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Comparison between age-matched cohorts from 1980 to 2005. All women residing in France and born 1911-1915, 1926-1930 and 1941-1945 are included. Sources are official data sets and published French reports on screening by mammography, age and time specific breast-cancer incidence and mortality, hormone replacement therapy, alcohol and obesity. Outcome measures include breast-cancer incidence differences adjusted for changes in risk factor distributions between pairs of age-matched cohorts who had experienced different levels of screening intensity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was an 8-fold increase in the number of mammography machines operating in France between 1980 and 2000. Opportunistic and organised screening increased over time. In comparison to age-matched cohorts born 15 years earlier, recent cohorts had adjusted incidence proportion over 11 years that were 76% higher [95% confidence limits (CL) 67%, 85%] for women aged 50 to 64 years and 23% higher [95% CL 15%, 31%] for women aged 65 to 79 years. Given that mortality did not change correspondingly, this increase in adjusted 11 year incidence proportion was considered as an estimate of overdiagnosis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Breast cancer may be overdiagnosed because screening increases diagnosis of slowly progressing non-life threatening cancer and increases misdiagnosis among women without progressive cancer. We suggest that these effects could largely explain the reported "epidemic" of breast cancer in France. Better predictive classification of tumours is needed in order to avoid unnecessary cancer diagnoses and subsequent procedures.</p

Color and stellar population gradients in galaxies. Correlation with mass

We analyze the color gradients (CGs) of ~50000 nearby SDSS galaxies. From synthetic spectral models based on a simplified star formation recipe, we derive the mean spectral properties, and explain the observed radial trends of the color as gradients of the stellar population age and metallicity (Z). The most massive ETGs (M_* > 10^{11} Msun) have shallow CGs in correspondence of shallow (negative) Z gradients. In the stellar mass range 10^(10.3-10.5) < M_* < 10^(11) Msun, the Z gradients reach their minimum of ~ -0.5 dex^{-1}. At M_* ~ 10^{10.3-10.5} Msun, color and Z gradient slopes suddenly change. They turn out to anti-correlate with the mass, becoming highly positive at the very low masses. We have also found that age gradients anti-correlate with Z gradients, as predicted by hierarchical cosmological simulations for ETGs. On the other side, LTGs have gradients which systematically decrease with mass (and are always more negative than in ETGs), consistently with the expectation from gas infall and SN feedback scenarios. Z is found to be the main driver of the trend of color gradients, especially for LTGs, but age gradients are not negligible and seem to play a significant role too. We have been able to highlight that older galaxies have systematically shallower age and Z gradients than younger ones. Our results for high-mass galaxies are in perfect agreement with predictions based on the merging scenario, while the evolution of LTGs and younger and less massive ETGs seems to be mainly driven by infall and SN feedback. (Abridged)Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication on MNRAS. This version includes revisions after the referee's report

Isolation of avian influenza virus (H9N2) from emu in China

This is the first reported isolation of avian influenza virus (AIV) from emu in China. An outbreak of AIV infection occurred at an emu farm that housed 40 four-month-old birds. Various degrees of haemorrhage were discovered in the tissues of affected emus. Cell degeneration and necrosis were observed microscopically. Electron microscopy revealed round or oval virions with a diameter of 80 nm to 120 nm, surrounded by an envelope with spikes. The virus was classified as low pathogenic AIV (LPAIV), according to OIE standards. It was named A/Emu/HeNen/14/2004(H9N2)(Emu/HN/2004). The HA gene (1683bp) was amplified by RT-PCR and it was compared with other animal H9N2 AIV sequences in GenBank, the US National Institutes of Health genetic sequence database. The results suggested that Emu/HN/2004 may have come from an avian influenza virus (H9N2) from Southern China

Bringing Back a Healthy Buzz? Invertebrate Parasites and Reintroductions:A Case Study in Bumblebees

Reintroductions can play a key role in the conservation of endangered species. Parasites may impact reintroductions, both positively and negatively, but few case studies of how to manage parasites during reintroductions exist. Bumblebees are in decline at regional and global scales, and reintroductions can be used to re-establish extinct local populations. Here we report on how the risks associated with parasites are being managed in an ongoing reintroduction of the short-haired bumblebee, Bombus subterraneus, to the UK. Disease risk analysis was conducted and disease risk management plans constructed to design a capture-quarantine-release system that minimised the impacts on both the bumblebees and on their natural parasites. Given that bumblebee parasites are (i) generalists, (ii) geographically ubiquitous, and (iii) show evidence of local adaptation, the disease risk management plan was designed to limit the co-introduction of parasites from the source population in Sweden to the destination site in the UK. Results suggest that this process at best eliminated, or at least severely curtailed the co-introduction of parasites, and ongoing updates of the plan enabled minimization of impacts on natural host-parasite dynamics in the Swedish source population. This study suggests that methods designed for reintroductions of vertebrate species can be successfully applied to invertebrates. Future reintroductions of invertebrates where the parasite fauna is less well known should take advantage of next-generation barcoding and multiple survey years prior to the start of reintroductions, to develop comprehensive disease risk management plans

An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for detection of avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H7 antibodies

BACKGROUND: Avian influenza virus (AIV) subtypes H5 and H7 attracts particular attention because of the risk of their potential pathogenicity in poultry. The haemagglutination inhibition (HI) test is widely used as subtype specific test for serological diagnostics despite the laborious nature of this method. However, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) are being explored as an alternative test method. H5 and H7 specific monoclonal antibodies were experimentally raised and used in the development of inhibition ELISAs for detection of serological response specifically directed against AIV subtypes H5 and H7. The ELISAs were evaluated with polyclonal chicken anti-AIV antibodies against AIV subtypes: H1N2, H5N2, H5N7, H7N1, H7N7, H9N9, H10N4 and H16N3. RESULTS: Both the H5 and H7 ELISA proved to have a high sensitivity and specificity and the ELISAs detected H5 and H7 antibodies earlier during experimental infection than the HI test did. The reproducibility of the ELISA’s performed at different times was high with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.96-0.98. CONCLUSIONS: The ELISAs are a potential alternative to the HI test for screening of large amounts of avian sera, although only experimental sera were tested in this study