Seeding Change by Visioning Good Anthropocenes

Although we are surrounded by dystopian stories about the age of the Anthropocene, the future does not have to be bleak. Seeds of alternative good futures occur in many places around the world and we can use these to help us think more creatively about pathways to more desirable futures in the Anthropocene. This paper describes the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SOGA) project that aims to identify where elements of Good Anthropocenes (‘seeds’) currently exist on the planet and how they can be used to help us envision pathways towards new, positive futures for the Earth and humanity. Each of the seeds is a potential solution that could help to shift us onto a more sustainable trajectory that will ensure both planetary and human wellbeing. The project has developed and combined novel visioning tools that engage a broad set of stakeholders in identifying potentially game-changing seed initiatives, and exploring how these could develop and combine to create radically alternative futures. This new scenario approach has been used in intergovernmental processes such as the UN Environment’s Global Environment Outlook (GEO) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). By tapping into creativity and ingenuity, the SOGA scenario process provides a set of methodological tools through which we can think in new ways about how to navigate towards more desirable futures, starting with the pockets of these futures that are already with us in the present

Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene

The scale, rate, and intensity of humans’ environmental impact has engendered broad discussion about how to find plausible pathways of development that hold the most promise for fostering a better future in the Anthropocene. However, the dominance of dystopian visions of irreversible environmental degradation and societal collapse, along with overly optimistic utopias and business‐as‐usual scenarios that lack insight and innovation, frustrate progress. Here, we present a novel approach to thinking about the future that builds on experiences drawn from a diversity of practices, worldviews, values, and regions that could accelerate the adoption of pathways to transformative change (change that goes beyond incremental improvements). Using an analysis of 100 initiatives, or “seeds of a good Anthropocene”, we find that emphasizing hopeful elements of existing practice offers the opportunity to: (1) understand the values and features that constitute a good Anthropocene, (2) determine the processes that lead to the emergence and growth of initiatives that fundamentally change human–environmental relationships, and (3) generate creative, bottom‐up scenarios that feature well‐articulated pathways toward a more positive future

Retrospective time-trend study of polybrominated diphenyl ether and polybrominated and polychlorinated biphenyl levels in human serum from the United States.

Six polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), one hexabromobiphenyl [polybrominated biphenyl (PBB)], and one hexachlorobiphenyl [polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)] were measured in 40 human serum pools collected in the southeastern United States during 1985 through 2002 and in Seattle, Washington, for 1999 through 2002. The concentrations of most of the PBDEs, which are commercially used as flame retardants in common household and commercial applications, had significant positive correlations with time of sample collection, showing that the concentrations of these compounds are increasing in serum collected in the United States. In contrast, PCB and PBB levels were negatively correlated with sample collection year, indicating that the levels of these compounds have been decreasing since their phaseout in the 1970s

Context and culture associated with alcohol use amongst youth in major urban cities: A cross-country population based survey

Background: Alcohol consumption patterns are dependent upon culture and context. The aim of this study was to interview people aged 18–34 year old living in four cities in different regions of the world to explore differences in a range of alcohol measures to assist in determining culturally appropriate alcohol initiatives for this age group. Method: Multistage random sampling was consistent across the four cities (Ilorin (Nigeria), Wuhan (China), Montevideo (Uruguay) and Moscow (Russia)). The questionnaire was forward and back translated into relevant languages and face-to-face interviewing undertaken. The data were weighted to the population of each city. Uni-variable analysis (ever consumed, first time consumed, age when drunk for first time, number of days consumed, type consumed) and logistic regression modeling were undertaken. The final model for each city was adjusted for age, sex, marital status, highest education and employment status. In total 6235 interviews were undertaken (1391 in Ilorin, 1600 in Montevideo, 1604 in Moscow and 1640 in Wuhan). Results: Alcohol was consumed by 96.4% in Montevideo, 86.1% in Moscow, 53.4% in Wuhan and 33.3% in Ilorin. There was very little difference by gender except Ilorin males were more likely to consume alcohol than females. Alcohol was consumed on more days for Ilorin males; Wuhan females consumed alcohol on the least number of days; Ilorin had the most abstainers; Montevideo and Moscow the highest proportion of light drinkers; Ilorin and Montevideo the highest proportion of heavy drinkers. Differences by type of alcohol were also apparent. The final logistic regression model provided different models including higher alcohol consumption rates for males, 25–34 years of age, divorced/separated marital status and employed part time for Ilorin respondents; males and higher educated for Montevideo; males, 25 to 29 years of age and higher educated for Moscow; and 25–29 years of age, non-married and vocationally trained for those in Wuhan. Conclusion: Alcohol consumption in these four cities does not increase with age as found in most high income countries. The alcohol consumption patterns during this stage of the life cycle are important to assess so that high level, as well as country-specific, planning and interventions can be implemented

The "lessons" of the Australian "heroin shortage"

Heroin use causes considerable harm to individual users including dependence, fatal and nonfatal overdose, mental health problems, and blood borne virus transmission. It also adversely affects the community through drug dealing, property crime and reduced public amenity. During the mid to late 1990s in Australia the prevalence of heroin use increased as reflected in steeply rising overdose deaths. In January 2001, there were reports of an unpredicted and unprecedented reduction in heroin supply with an abrupt onset in all Australian jurisdictions. The shortage was most marked in New South Wales, the State with the largest heroin market, which saw increases in price, dramatic decreases in purity at the street level, and reductions in the ease with which injecting drug users reported being able to obtain the drug. The abrupt onset of the shortage and a subsequent dramatic reduction in overdose deaths prompted national debate about the causes of the shortage and later international debate about the policy significance of what has come to be called the "Australian heroin shortage". In this paper we summarise insights from four years' research into the causes, consequences and policy implications of the "heroin shortage"