A "Politically Robust" Experimental Design for Public Policy Evaluation, with Application to the Mexican Universal Health Insurance Program

We develop an approach to conducting large scale randomized public policy experiments intended to be more robust to the political interventions that have ruined some or all parts of many similar previous efforts. Our proposed design is insulated from selection bias in some circumstances even if we lose observations; our inferences can still be unbiased even if politics disrupts any two of the three steps in our analytical procedures; and other empirical checks are available to validate the overall design. We illustrate with a design and empirical validation of an evaluation of the Mexican Seguro Popular de Salud (Universal Health Insurance) program we are conducting. Seguro Popular, which is intended to grow to provide medical care, drugs, preventative services, and financial health protection to the 50 million Mexicans without health insurance, is one of the largest health reforms of any country in the last two decades. The evaluation is also large scale, constituting one of the largest policy experiments to date and what may be the largest randomized health policy experiment ever.Governmen

Pandemic Influenza as 21st Century Urban Public Health Crisis

Responses of Mexico City and New York City in spring 2009 illustrate the importance of advance planning

Determinacion de la geometria del acuifero de morrosquillo y geologia detallada del acuifero de toluviejo, sucre

Los acuíferos de Toluviejo y Morrosquillo están localizados en el NW de Colombia, en el área costera del Departamento de Sucre. El modelamiento geológico de estos acuíferos ha sido basado en cartografía geológica detallada, estudios de resistividad eléctrica e interpretación de líneas símicas y datos de perforación compilados de estudios  exploratorios de hidrocarburos.  La cartografía geológica de la formación de Toluviejo fue actualizada a partir de la interpretación de fotografías aéreas y  revisión en campo, incluyendo la medición de datos de susceptibilidad magnética y espectrografía de rayos gamma. La geometría y extensión del acuífero de Morrosquillo fue modelada a partir de la interpretación de 28 sondeos eléctricos verticales y el análisis de la secuencia más superficial  de la secuencia estratigráfica y estructuras interpretadas a partir de líneas sísmicas.  Como resultado, se han elaborado una serie de mapas de resistividad a varias profundidades incluyendo el tope y base de los acuíferos de Morrosquillo y la profundidad de la interfase de la intrusión de agua salina para proveer información básica a las autoridades locales que administran los recursos de agua subterránea de la región. Adicionalmente, se reporta una intrusión ígnea porfirítica en las montañas de la cansona, la cual será objeto de estudios detallados de mineralogía, petrografía y geofísica de alta resolución para avanzar en el conocimiento de los rasgos geológicos y estructurales del área

Reference values for areal bone mineral density among a healthy Mexican population

Objective. Compare the influence of ethnicity in the prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in various Mexican populations using two normal dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) reference databases: manufacturer¿s incorporating US Hispanic population and a normal mestizo Mexican population. Material and Methods. MMP included 9 946 subjects participating in an ongoing long-term cohort study focusing on lifestyle and chronic diseases, of which 6 487 MMP males and females aged 7 to 80 years were the normal subjects used to determine bone density T- and Z-scores, following WHO criteria, and peak bone mass values. Abnormal bone mass density values estimated by the manufacturer's and peak bone mass reference values were compared. Results and Conclusions. Our results show that by using the manufacturer´s T-score values in the mestizo Mexican population we are underestimating the number of abnormal bone mass BMD populations

Urinary Phthalate Metabolites in Relation to Preterm Birth in Mexico City

Background: Rates of preterm birth have been rising over the past several decades. Factors contributing to this trend remain largely unclear, and exposure to environmental contaminants may play a role. Objective: We investigated the relationship between phthalate exposure and preterm birth. Methods: Within a large Mexican birth cohort study, we compared third-trimester urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations in 30 women who delivered preterm (< 37 weeks of gestation) with those of 30 controls (≥ 37 weeks of gestation). Results: Concentrations of most of the metabolites were similar to those reported among U.S. females, although in the present study mono-n-butyl phthalate (MBP) concentrations were higher and monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP) concentrations lower. In a crude comparison before correcting for urinary dilution, geometric mean urinary concentrations were higher for the phthalate metabolites MBP, MBzP, mono(3-carboxylpropyl) phthalate, and four metabolites of di(2-ethyl-hexyl) phthalate among women who subsequently delivered preterm. These differences remained, but were somewhat lessened, after correction by specific gravity or creatinine. In multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for potential confounders, elevated odds of having phthalate metabolite concentrations above the median level were found. Conclusions: We found that phthalate exposure is prevalent among this group of pregnant women in Mexico and that some phthalates may be associated with preterm birth

Association between the plasma/whole blood lead ratio and history of spontaneous abortion: a nested cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Blood lead has been associated with an elevated risk of miscarriage. The plasmatic fraction of lead represents the toxicologically active fraction of lead. Women with a tendency to have a higher plasma/whole blood Pb ratio could tend towards an elevated risk of miscarriage due to a higher plasma Pb for a given whole blood Pb and would consequently have a history of spontaneous abortion.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied 207 pregnant Mexico City residents during the 1^sttrimester of pregnancy, originally recruited for two cohorts between 1997 and 2004. Criteria for inclusion in this study were having had at least one previous pregnancy, and having valid plasma and blood Pb measurements. Pb was measured in whole blood and plasma by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry using ultra-clean techniques. History of miscarriage in previous pregnancies was obtained by interview. The incidence rate of spontaneous abortion was defined as the proportion of previous pregnancies that resulted in miscarriage. Data were analyzed by means of Poisson regression models featuring the incidence rate of spontaneous abortion as the outcome and continuous or categorized plasma/blood Pb ratios as predictor variables. All models were adjusted for age and schooling. Additionally, logistic regression models featuring inclusion in the study sample as the outcome were fitted to assess potential selection bias.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean number of miscarriages was 0.42 (range 0 to 4); mean Pb concentrations were 62.4 and 0.14 μg/L in whole blood and plasma respectively. Mean plasma/blood Pb ratio was 0.22%. We estimated that a 0.1% increment in the plasma/blood Pb ratio lead was associated to a 12% greater incidence of spontaneous abortion (p = 0.02). Women in the upper tertile of the plasma/blood Pb ratio had twice the incidence rate of those in the lower tertile (p = 0.02). Conditional on recruitment cohort, inclusion in the study sample was unrelated to observable characteristics such as number of abortions, number of pregnancies, blood Pb levels, age schooling, weight and height.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Women with a large plasma/whole blood Pb ratio may be at higher risk of miscarriage, which could be due to a greater availability of placental barrier-crossing Pb.</p

Partial protection of seasonal trivalent inactivated vaccine against novel pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009: case-control study in Mexico City

Objective To evaluate the association of 2008-9 seasonal trivalent inactivated vaccine with cases of influenza A/H1N1 during the epidemic in Mexico

Attribution of 12 high-risk human papillomavirus genotypes to infection and cervical disease

Background: We estimated the prevalence and incidence of 14 human papillomavirus (HPV) types (6/11/ 16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59) in cervicovaginal swabs, and the attribution of these HPV types in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), and adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), using predefined algorithms that adjusted for multiple-type infected lesions. Methods: A total of 10,656 women ages 15 to 26 years and 1,858 women ages 24 to 45 years were enrolled in the placebo arms of one of three clinical trials of a quadrivalent HPV vaccine. We estimated the cumulative incidence of persistent infection and the proportion of CIN/AIS attributable to individual carcinogenic HPV genotypes, as well as the proportion of CIN/AIS lesions potentially preventable by a prophylactic 9-valent HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 vaccine. Results: The cumulative incidence of persistent infection with?1 of the seven high-risk types included in the 9-valent vaccine was 29%, 12%, and6%forwomen ages 15 to 26, 24 to 34, and 35 to 45 years, respectively.Atotal of 2,507 lesions were diagnosed as CIN or AIS by an expert pathology panel. After adjusting for multiple-type infected lesions, amongwomen ages 15 to 45 years, these seven high-risk types were attributed to 43% to 55% of CIN1, 70% to 78% of CIN2, 85% to 91% of CIN3, and 95% to 100% of AIS lesions, respectively. The other tested types (HPV35/39/51/56/59) were attributed to 23% to 30% of CIN1, 7% to 14% of CIN2, 3% to 4% of CIN3, and 0% of AIS lesions, respectively. Conclusions: Approximately 85% or more of CIN3/AIS, >70% CIN2, and approximately 50% of CIN1 lesions worldwide are attributed to HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58. Impact: If 9-valent HPV vaccination programs are effectively implemented, the majority of CIN2 and CIN3 lesions worldwide could be prevented, in addition to approximately one-half of CIN1

Prospective Study of One Million Deaths in India: Rationale, Design, and Validation Results

BACKGROUND: Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. We report here on the rationale, design, and implementation of the world's largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We will monitor nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households (6.3 million people in 1.1 million households in the 1998–2003 sample frame and 7.6 million people in 1.3 million households in the 2004–2014 sample frame) for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. About 300,000 deaths from 1998–2003 and some 700,000 deaths from 2004–2014 are expected; of these about 850,000 will be coded by two physicians to provide causes of death by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and geographical region. Pilot studies will evaluate the addition of physical and biological measurements, specifically dried blood spots. Preliminary results from over 35,000 deaths suggest that VA can ascertain the leading causes of death, reduce the misclassification of causes, and derive the probable underlying cause of death when it has not been reported. VA yields broad classification of the underlying causes in about 90% of deaths before age 70. In old age, however, the proportion of classifiable deaths is lower. By tracking underlying demographic denominators, the study permits quantification of absolute mortality rates. Household case-control, proportional mortality, and nested case-control methods permit quantification of risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens India's flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously