Comparing correction methods of RCM outputs for improving crop impact projections in the Iberian Peninsula for 21st century

Assessment of climate change impacts on crops in regions of complex orography such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP) requires climate model output which is able to describe accurately the observed climate. The high resolution of output provided by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is expected to be a suitable tool to describe regional and local climatic features, although their simulation results may still present biases. For these reasons, we compared several post-processing methods to correct or reduce the biases of RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for the IP. The bias-corrected datasets were also evaluated in terms of their applicability and consequences in improving the results of a crop model to simulate maize growth and development at two IP locations, using this crop as a reference for summer cropping systems in the region. The use of bias-corrected climate runs improved crop phenology and yield simulation overall and reduced the inter-model variability and thus the uncertainty. The number of observational stations underlying each reference observational dataset used to correct the bias affected the correction performance. Although no single technique showed to be the best one, some methods proved to be more adequate for small initial biases, while others were useful when initial biases were so large as to prevent data application for impact studies. An initial evaluation of the climate data, the bias correction/reduction method and the consequences for impact assessment would be needed to design the most robust, reduced uncertainty ensemble for a specific combination of location, crop, and crop management

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR

Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3–6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing

Operationalizing local ecological knowledge in climate change research : challenges and opportunities of citizen science

Current research on the local impacts of climate change is based on contrasting results from the simulation of historical trends in climatic variables produced with global models against climate data from independent observations. To date, these observations have mostly consisted of weather data from standardized meteorological stations. Given that the spatial distribution of weather stations is patchy, climate scientists have called for the exploration of new data sources. Knowledge developed by Indigenous Peoples and local communities with a long history of interaction with their environment has been proposed as a data source with untapped potential to contribute to our understanding of the local impacts of climate change. In this chapter, we discuss an approach that aims to bring insights from local knowledge systems to climate change research. First, we present a number of theoretical arguments that give support to the idea that local knowledge systems can contribute in original ways to the endeavors of climate change research. Then, we explore the potential of using information and communication technologies to gather and share local knowledge of climate change impacts. We do so through the examination of a citizen science initiative aiming to collect local indicators of climate change impacts: the LICCI project (www.licci.eu). Our findings illustrate that citizen science can inspire new approaches to articulate the inclusion of local knowledge systems in climate change research. However, this requires outlining careful approaches, with high ethical standards, toward knowledge validation and recognizing that there are aspects of local ecological knowledge that are incommensurable with scientific knowledge

Assessing and facilitating warehouse safety

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how warehouse safety can be assessed and facilitated. Methodology – Through a literature study, we build a theoretical framework to provide insights in how safety in Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) can be assessed and facilitated. We perform a case study at a large Dutch LSP using interviews and questionnaires to determine the relevance of the sub-dimensions to assess warehouse safety. Findings – Using literature, we identify people, procedures and technology related sub-dimensions of safety culture and safety behavior and factors that may affect how safety culture translates to safety behavior. Using a case study our findings indicate which sub-dimensions and influencing factors LSP employees find important and why. We found differences in the importance assigned to safety, which may point to the existence of sub-cultures across warehouses. Research limitations/implications – This paper contributes to the limited existing warehouse safety literature in which the factors that influence safety are not well explored. Although the case study investigates one LSP and as such does not generalize across LSPs, it provides valuable insights in important aspects of safety and how they can be influenced. Practical implications – This paper offers safety managers insights in how to assess and facilitate safety within their warehouses. Originality – Although warehouse safety is important, there is scarce academic research that explores this issue