DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

Toll-Like Receptors 2 and 4 Regulate the Frequency of IFNγ-Producing CD4+ T-Cells during Pulmonary Infection with Chlamydia pneumoniae

TLR2 and TLR4 are crucial for recognition of Chlamydia pneumoniae in vivo, since infected TLR2/4 double-deficient mice are unable to control the infection as evidenced by severe loss of body weight and progressive lethal pneumonia. Unexpectedly, these mice display higher pulmonary levels of the protective cytokine IFNγ than wild type mice. We show here, that antigen-specific CD4+ T-cells are responsible for the observed IFNγ-secretion in vivo and their frequency is higher in TLR2/4 double-deficient than in wild type mice. The capacity of TLR2/4 double-deficient dendritic cells to re-stimulate CD4+ T-cells did not differ from wild type dendritic cells. However, the frequency of CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ T-cells was considerably higher in wild type compared to TLR2/4 double-deficient mice and was inversely related to the number of IFNγ-secreting CD4+ effector T-cells. Despite increased IFNγ-levels, at least one IFNγ-mediated response, protective NO-secretion, could not be induced in the absence of TLR2 and 4. In summary, CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T-cells fail to expand in the absence of TLR2 and TLR4 during pulmonary infection with C. pneumoniae, which in turn enhances the frequency of CD4+IFNγ+ effector T-cells. Failure of IFNγ to induce NO in TLR2/4 double-deficient cells represents one possible mechanism why TLR2/4 double-deficient mice are unable to control pneumonia caused by C. pneumoniae and succumb to the infection

Randomized Phase II trial assessing estramustine and vinblastine combination chemotherapy vs estramustine alone in patients with progressive hormone-escaped metastatic prostate cancer

Abstract Based on the results of combined data from three North American Phase II studies, a randomised Phase II study in the same patient population was performed, using combination chemotherapy with estramustine phosphate (EMP) and vinblastine (VBL) in hormone refractory prostate cancer patients. In all, 92 patients were randomised into a Phase II study of oral EMP (10 mg kg day continuously) or oral EMP in combination with intravenous VBL (4 mg m(2) week for 6 weeks, followed by 2 weeks rest). The end points were toxicity and PSA response in both groups, with the option to continue the trial as a Phase III study with time to progression and survival as end points, if sufficient responses were observed. Toxicity was unexpectedly high in both treatment arms and led to treatment withdrawal or refusal in 49% of all patients, predominantly already during the first treatment cycle. The mean treatment duration was 10 and 14 weeks, median time to PSA progression was 27.2 and 30.8 weeks, median survival time was 44 and 50.9 weeks, and PSA response rate was only 24.6 and 28.9% in the EMP/VBL and EMP arms, respectively. There was no correlation between PSA response and survival. While the PSA response in the patients tested was less than half that recorded in the North American studies, the toxicity of EMP monotherapy or in combination with VBL was much higher than expected. Further research on more effective and less toxic treatment strategies for hormone refractory prostate cancer is mandatory

Addiction to the nicotine gum in never smokers

Abstract Background Addiction to nicotine gum has never been described in never smokers or in never users of tobacco. Methods Internet questionnaire in 2004–2006 in a self-selected sample of 434 daily users of nicotine gum. To assess dependence on nicotine gum, we used modified versions of the Nicotine Dependence Syndrome Scale (NDSS), the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence and the Cigarette Dependence Scale. Results Five never smokers used the nicotine gum daily. They had been using the nicotine gum for longer than the 429 ever smokers (median = 6 years vs 0.8 years, p = 0.004), and they had higher NDSS-gum Tolerance scores (median = 0.73 vs = -1.0, p = 0.03), a difference of 1.5 standard deviation units. Two never smokers had never used smokeless tobacco, both answered "extremely true" to: "I use nicotine gums because I am addicted to them", both "fully agreed" with: "after a few hours without chewing a nicotine gum, I feel an irresistible urge to chew one" and: "I am a prisoner of nicotine gum". Conclusion This is to our knowledge the first report of addiction to nicotine gum in never users of tobacco. However, this phenomenon is rare, and although the long-term effect of nicotine gum is unknown, this product is significantly less harmful than tobacco.</p

Multivariate searches for single top quark production with the D0 detector

We present a search for electroweak production of single top quarks in the s-channel (p-pbar -> t bbar + X) and t-channel (p-pbar -> tq bbar + X) modes. We have analyzed 230 pb^(-1) of data collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV. Two separate analysis methods are used: neural networks and a cut-based analysis. No evidence for a single top quark signal is found. We set 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross sections using Bayesian statistics, based on event counts and binned likelihoods formed from the neural network output. The limits from the neural network (cut-based) analysis are 6.4 pb (10.6 pb) in the s-channel and 5.0 pb (11.3 pb) in the t-channel.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. D, Fermilab preprint Fermilab-Pub-06/069-

Evidence for Composite Cost Functions in Arm Movement Planning: An Inverse Optimal Control Approach

An important issue in motor control is understanding the basic principles underlying the accomplishment of natural movements. According to optimal control theory, the problem can be stated in these terms: what cost function do we optimize to coordinate the many more degrees of freedom than necessary to fulfill a specific motor goal? This question has not received a final answer yet, since what is optimized partly depends on the requirements of the task. Many cost functions were proposed in the past, and most of them were found to be in agreement with experimental data. Therefore, the actual principles on which the brain relies to achieve a certain motor behavior are still unclear. Existing results might suggest that movements are not the results of the minimization of single but rather of composite cost functions. In order to better clarify this last point, we consider an innovative experimental paradigm characterized by arm reaching with target redundancy. Within this framework, we make use of an inverse optimal control technique to automatically infer the (combination of) optimality criteria that best fit the experimental data. Results show that the subjects exhibited a consistent behavior during each experimental condition, even though the target point was not prescribed in advance. Inverse and direct optimal control together reveal that the average arm trajectories were best replicated when optimizing the combination of two cost functions, nominally a mix between the absolute work of torques and the integrated squared joint acceleration. Our results thus support the cost combination hypothesis and demonstrate that the recorded movements were closely linked to the combination of two complementary functions related to mechanical energy expenditure and joint-level smoothness

Three allele combinations associated with Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated disease of polygenic etiology. Dissection of its genetic background is a complex problem, because of the combinatorial possibilities of gene-gene interactions. As genotyping methods improve throughput, approaches that can explore multigene interactions appropriately should lead to improved understanding of MS. METHODS: 286 unrelated patients with definite MS and 362 unrelated healthy controls of Russian descent were genotyped at polymorphic loci (including SNPs, repeat polymorphisms, and an insertion/deletion) of the DRB1, TNF, LT, TGFβ1, CCR5 and CTLA4 genes and TNFa and TNFb microsatellites. Each allele carriership in patients and controls was compared by Fisher's exact test, and disease-associated combinations of alleles in the data set were sought using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo-based method recently developed by our group. RESULTS: We identified two previously unknown MS-associated tri-allelic combinations: -509TGFβ1*C, DRB1*18(3), CTLA4*G and -238TNF*B1,-308TNF*A2, CTLA4*G, which perfectly separate MS cases from controls, at least in the present sample. The previously described DRB1*15(2) allele, the microsatellite TNFa9 allele and the biallelic combination CCR5Δ32, DRB1*04 were also reidentified as MS-associated. CONCLUSION: These results represent an independent validation of MS association with DRB1*15(2) and TNFa9 in Russians and are the first to find the interplay of three loci in conferring susceptibility to MS. They demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for the identification of complex-disease-associated combinations of alleles

Mitochondrial DNA haplogroup T is associated with coronary artery disease and diabetic retinopathy: a case control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is strong and consistent evidence that oxidative stress is crucially involved in the development of atherosclerotic vascular disease. Overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in mitochondria is an unifying mechanism that underlies micro- and macrovascular atherosclerotic disease. Given the central role of mitochondria in energy and ROS production, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is an obvious candidate for genetic susceptibility studies on atherosclerotic processes. We therefore examined the association between mtDNA haplogroups and coronary artery disease (CAD) as well as diabetic retinopathy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study of Middle European Caucasians included patients with angiographically documented CAD (n = 487), subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus with (n = 149) or without (n = 78) diabetic retinopathy and control subjects without clinical manifestations of atherosclerotic disease (n = 1527). MtDNA haplotyping was performed using multiplex PCR and subsequent multiplex primer extension analysis for determination of the major European haplogroups. Haplogroup frequencies of patients were compared to those of control subjects without clinical manifestations of atherosclerotic disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Haplogroup T was significantly more prevalent among patients with CAD than among control subjects (14.8% vs 8.3%; p = 0.002). In patients with type 2 diabetes, the presence of diabetic retinopathy was also significantly associated with a higher prevalence of haplogroup T (12.1% vs 5.1%; p = 0.046).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our data indicate that the mtDNA haplogroup T is associated with CAD and diabetic retinopathy in Middle European Caucasian populations.</p

Bayesian Integration and Non-Linear Feedback Control in a Full-Body Motor Task

A large number of experiments have asked to what degree human reaching movements can be understood as being close to optimal in a statistical sense. However, little is known about whether these principles are relevant for other classes of movements. Here we analyzed movement in a task that is similar to surfing or snowboarding. Human subjects stand on a force plate that measures their center of pressure. This center of pressure affects the acceleration of a cursor that is displayed in a noisy fashion (as a cloud of dots) on a projection screen while the subject is incentivized to keep the cursor close to a fixed position. We find that salient aspects of observed behavior are well-described by optimal control models where a Bayesian estimation model (Kalman filter) is combined with an optimal controller (either a Linear-Quadratic-Regulator or Bang-bang controller). We find evidence that subjects integrate information over time taking into account uncertainty. However, behavior in this continuous steering task appears to be a highly non-linear function of the visual feedback. While the nervous system appears to implement Bayes-like mechanisms for a full-body, dynamic task, it may additionally take into account the specific costs and constraints of the task