On the provision, reliability, and use of hurricane forecasts on various timescales

Probabilistic forecasting plays a pivotal role both in the application and in the advancement of geophysical modelling. Operational techniques and modelling methodologies are examined critically in this thesis and suggestions for improvement are made; potential improvements are illustrated in low-dimensional chaotic systems of nonlinear equations. Atlantic basin hurricane forecasting and forecast evaluation methodologies on daily to multi-annual timescales provide the primary focus of application and real world illustration. Atlantic basin hurricanes have attracted much attention from the scientific and private sector communities as well as from the general public due to their potential for devastation to life and property, and speculation on increasing trends in hurricane activity. Current approaches to modelling, prediction and forecast evaluation employed in operational hurricane forecasting are critiqued, followed by recommendations for best-practice techniques. The applicability of these insights extends far beyond the forecasting of hurricanes. Hurricane data analysis and forecast output is based on small-number count data sourced from a small-sample historical archive; analysis benefits from specialised statistical methods which are adapted to this particular problem. The challenges and opportunities arising in hurricane statistical analysis and forecasting posed by small-number, small-sample, and, in particular, by serially dependent data are clarified. This will allow analysts and forecasters alike access to more appropriate statistical methodologies. Novel statistical forecasting techniques are introduced for seasonal hurricane prediction. In addition, a range of linear and non-linear techniques for analysis of hurricane count data are applied for the first time along with an innovative algorithmic approach for the statistical inference of regression model coefficients. A real-time outlook for the 2013 hurricane season is presented, along with a methodology to support a running (re)analysis for National Hurricane Center 48 hour forecasts in 2013; the focus here is on if, and if so how, to improve forecast effectiveness by “recalibrating” the raw forecasts in real time. In this case, it is revealed that recalibration does not improve forecast performance, and that, across years, it can be detrimental. In short, a new statistical framework is proposed for evaluating and interpreting forecast reliability, forecast skill, and forecast value to provide a sound basis for constructing and utilising operational event predictions. This novel framework is then illustrated in the specific context of hurricane prediction. Proposed methods of forecast recalibration in the context of both a low-dimensional dynamical system and operational hurricane forecasting are employed to illustrate methods for improving resource allocation distinguishing, for example, scenarios where forecast recalibration is effective from those where resources would be better dedicated towards improving forecast techniques. A novel approach to robust statistical identification of the weakest links in the complex chain leading to probabilistic prediction of nonlinear systems is presented, and its application demonstrated in both numerical studies and operational systems

Designed, highly expressing, thermostable dengue virus 2 envelope protein dimers elicit quaternary epitope antibodies

Dengue virus (DENV) is a worldwide health burden, and a safe vaccine is needed. Neutralizing antibodies bind to quaternary epitopes on DENV envelope (E) protein homodimers. However, recombinantly expressed soluble E proteins are monomers under vaccination conditions and do not present these quaternary epitopes, partly explaining their limited success as vaccine antigens. Using molecular modeling, we found DENV2 E protein mutations that induce dimerization at low concentrations (\u3c100 pM) and enhance production yield by more than 50-fold. Cross-dimer epitope antibodies bind to the stabilized dimers, and a crystal structure resembles the wild-type (WT) E protein bound to a dimer epitope antibody. Mice immunized with the stabilized dimers developed antibodies that bind to E dimers and not monomers and elicited higher levels of DENV2-neutralizing antibodies compared to mice immunized with WT E antigen. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of using structure-based design to produce subunit vaccines for dengue and other flaviviruses

Quantifying the predictability of a predictand: demonstrating the diverse roles of serial dependence in the estimation of forecast skill

Predictability varies. In geophysical systems, and related mathematical dynamical systems, variations are often expressed as serial dependence in the skill with which the system is, or can be, predicted. It is well known, of course, that estimation is more complicated in cases where the time series sample in‐hand does not reflect an independent from the target population; failure to account for this results in erroneous estimates both of the skill of the forecast system and of the statistical uncertainty in the estimated skill. This effect need not be indicated in the time series of the predictand; specifically: it is proven by example that linear correlation in the predictand is neither necessary nor sufficient to identify misestimation. Wilks [Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 136, 2109 (2010)] has shown that temporal correlations in forecast skill give rise to biased estimates of skill of a forecast system, and made progress on accounting for this effect in probability‐of‐precipitation forecasts. Related effects are explored in probability density forecasts of a continuous target in three different dynamical systems (demonstrating that linear correlation in the predictand is neither necessary nor sufficient), and a simple procedure is presented as a straightforward, good practice test for the effect when estimating the skill of forecast system

Sexual dimorphism in postcranial skeletal shape suggests male‐biased specialization for physical competition in anthropoid primates

Sexual dimorphism often arises as a response to selection on traits that improve a male's ability to physically compete for access to mates. In primates, sexual dimorphism in body mass and canine size is more common in species with intense male–male competition. However, in addition to these traits, other musculoskeletal adaptations may improve male fighting performance. Postcranial traits that increase strength, agility, and maneuverability may also be under selection. To test the hypothesis that males, as compared to females, are more specialized for physical competition in their postcranial anatomy, we compared sex‐specific skeletal shape using a set of functional indices predicted to improve fighting performance. Across species, we found significant sexual dimorphism in a subset of these indices, indicating the presence of skeletal shape sexual dimorphism in our sample of anthropoid primates. Mean skeletal shape sexual dimorphism was positively correlated with sexual dimorphism in body size, an indicator of the intensity of male–male competition, even when controlling for both body mass and phylogenetic relatedness. These results suggest that selection on male fighting ability has played a role in the evolution of postcranial sexual dimorphism in primates

Is the maturity of hospitals' quality improvement systems associated with measures of quality and patient safety?

UNLABELLED: ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Previous research addressed the development of a classification scheme for quality improvement systems in European hospitals. In this study we explore associations between the 'maturity' of the hospitals' quality improvement system and clinical outcomes. METHODS: The maturity classification scheme was developed based on survey results from 389 hospitals in eight European countries. We matched the hospitals from the Spanish sample (113 hospitals) with those hospitals participating in a nation-wide, voluntary hospital performance initiative. We then compared sample distributions and explored associations between the 'maturity' of the hospitals' quality improvement system and a range of composite outcomes measures, such as adjusted hospital-wide mortality, -readmission, -complication and -length of stay indices. Statistical analysis includes bivariate correlations for parametrically and non-parametrically distributed data, multiple robust regression models and bootstrapping techniques to obtain confidence-intervals for the correlation and regression estimates. RESULTS: Overall, 43 hospitals were included. Compared to the original sample of 113, this sample was characterized by a higher representation of university hospitals. Maturity of the quality improvement system was similar, although the matched sample showed less variability. Analysis of associations between the quality improvement system and hospital-wide outcomes suggests significant correlations for the indicator adjusted hospital complications, borderline significance for adjusted hospital readmissions and non-significance for the adjusted hospital mortality and length of stay indicators. These results are confirmed by the bootstrap estimates of the robust regression model after adjusting for hospital characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: We assessed associations between hospitals' quality improvement systems and clinical outcomes. From this data it seems that having a more developed quality improvement system is associated with lower rates of adjusted hospital complications. A number of methodological and logistic hurdles remain to link hospital quality improvement systems to outcomes. Further research should aim at identifying the latent dimensions of quality improvement systems that predict quality and safety outcomes. Such research would add pertinent knowledge regarding the implementation of organizational strategies related with quality of care outcomes

Early childhood pedagogies: spaces for young children to flourish

This paper introduces the Special Issue of Early Child Development and Care focused on Early Childhood Pedagogy. It opens by considering past and present discourses concerning early childhood pedagogy, and focus is given to established philosophical underpinnings in the field and their translation to contemporary guidance, alongside research and policy. It is argued that early childhood pedagogy is a contested, complex and diverse space, yet these factors are entirely appropriate for supporting young children to flourish as valued individuals in different contexts. Building on this argument, it is posited that it may be more appropriate to discuss early childhood pedagogies rather than early childhood pedagogy. The paper goes on to critique a range of established early childhood pedagogies, before introducing 18 papers from across the world that make exciting new contributions to the discourse. It is intended that this collection will inspire new debates and fresh endeavours concerning early childhood pedagogies

HEATR2 Plays a Conserved Role in Assembly of the Ciliary Motile Apparatus

Cilia are highly conserved microtubule-based structures that perform a variety of sensory and motility functions during development and adult homeostasis. In humans, defects specifically affecting motile cilia lead to chronic airway infections, infertility and laterality defects in the genetically heterogeneous disorder Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia (PCD). Using the comparatively simple Drosophila system, in which mechanosensory neurons possess modified motile cilia, we employed a recently elucidated cilia transcriptional RFX-FOX code to identify novel PCD candidate genes. Here, we report characterization of CG31320/HEATR2, which plays a conserved critical role in forming the axonemal dynein arms required for ciliary motility in both flies and humans. Inner and outer arm dyneins are absent from axonemes of CG31320 mutant flies and from PCD individuals with a novel splice-acceptor HEATR2 mutation. Functional conservation of closely arranged RFX-FOX binding sites upstream of HEATR2 orthologues may drive higher cytoplasmic expression of HEATR2 during early motile ciliogenesis. Immunoprecipitation reveals HEATR2 interacts with DNAI2, but not HSP70 or HSP90, distinguishing it from the client/chaperone functions described for other cytoplasmic proteins required for dynein arm assembly such as DNAAF1-4. These data implicate CG31320/HEATR2 in a growing intracellular pre-assembly and transport network that is necessary to deliver functional dynein machinery to the ciliary compartment for integration into the motile axoneme

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2–4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Vaccine Protection Against Zika Virus from Brazil

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus that is responsible for an unprecedented current epidemic in Brazil and the Americas1,2. ZIKV has been causally associated with fetal microcephaly, intrauterine growth restriction, and other birth defects in both humans3–8 and mice9–11. The rapid development of a safe and effective ZIKV vaccine is a global health priority1,2, but very little is currently known about ZIKV immunology and mechanisms of immune protection. Here we show that a single immunization of a plasmid DNA vaccine or a purified inactivated virus vaccine provides complete protection in susceptible mice against challenge with a ZIKV outbreak strain from northeast Brazil. This ZIKV strain has recently been shown to cross the placenta and to induce fetal microcephaly and other congenital malformations in mice11. We produced DNA vaccines expressing full-length ZIKV pre-membrane and envelope (prM-Env) as well as a series of deletion mutants. The full-length prM-Env DNA vaccine, but not the deletion mutants, afforded complete protection against ZIKV as measured by absence of detectable viremia following challenge, and protective efficacy correlated with Env-specific antibody titers. Adoptive transfer of purified IgG from vaccinated mice conferred passive protection, and CD4 and CD8 T lymphocyte depletion in vaccinated mice did not abrogate protective efficacy. These data demonstrate that protection against ZIKV challenge can be achieved by single-shot subunit and inactivated virus vaccines in mice and that Env-specific antibody titers represent key immunologic correlates of protection. Our findings suggest that the development of a ZIKV vaccine for humans will likely be readily achievable

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome