Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Fisheries

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Exposure of commercially exploited shellfish to changing pH levels: how to scale-up experimental evidence to regional impacts

Ocean acidification has become one of the most intensively studied climate change topics and it is expected to have both direct and indirect impacts on species, ecosystems, and economies. Experiments have been performed on different taxa, life stages, and at different pH levels. Despite this wealth of information, several key challenges remain, including (1) uncertainty about how to incorporate current pH ranges and variability experienced by organisms into experiments, and (2) how to bring this information together to support analysis and assessments at the broader ecosystem level. Sophisticated modelling tools are needed to ‘scale-up’ from experimental results to regional-scale insights. This paper highlights the challenges of combining information to determine how commercially exploited species may be affected under future pH levels, and how modelling and experimental results might be better aligned, using northwest Europe and the waters around the British Isles as an example. We argue that in most cases the current evidence does not offer sufficient information into impacts at projected pH levels, and that future experiments should be designed to consider the pH levels actually experienced by organisms, as well as variability in pH. These types of study are key in safeguarding commercially exploited shellfish stocks

Coding Early Naturalists' Accounts into Long-Term Fish Community Changes in the Adriatic Sea (1800–2000)

The understanding of fish communities' changes over the past centuries has important implications for conservation policy and marine resource management. However, reconstructing these changes is difficult because information on marine communities before the second half of the 20th century is, in most cases, anecdotal and merely qualitative. Therefore, historical qualitative records and modern quantitative data are not directly comparable, and their integration for long-term analyses is not straightforward. We developed a methodology that allows the coding of qualitative information provided by early naturalists into semi-quantitative information through an intercalibration with landing proportions. This approach allowed us to reconstruct and quantitatively analyze a 200-year-long time series of fish community structure indicators in the Northern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea). Our analysis provides evidence of long-term changes in fish community structure, including the decline of Chondrichthyes, large-sized and late-maturing species. This work highlights the importance of broadening the time-frame through which we look at marine ecosystem changes and provides a methodology to exploit, in a quantitative framework, historical qualitative sources. To the purpose, naturalists' eyewitness accounts proved to be useful for extending the analysis on fish community back in the past, well before the onset of field-based monitoring programs

Trace Elements and Carbon and Nitrogen Stable Isotopes in Organisms from a Tropical Coastal Lagoon

Trace elements (Fe, Mn, Al, Zn, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Cd, Hg, and As) and stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) were analyzed in sediments, invertebrates, and fishes from a tropical coastal lagoon influenced by iron ore mining and processing activities to assess the differences in trace element accumulation patterns among species and to investigate relations with trophic levels of the organisms involved. Overall significant negative relations between trophic level (given by 15N) and trace element concentrations in gastropods and crustaceans showed differences in internal controls of trace element accumulation among the species of different trophic positions, leading to trace element dilution. Generally, no significant relation between δ15N and trace element concentrations was observed among fish species, probably due to omnivory in a number of species as well as fast growth. Trace element accumulation was observed in the fish tissues, with higher levels of most trace elements found in liver compared with muscle and gill. Levels of Fe, Mn, Al, and Hg in invertebrates, and Fe and Cu in fish livers, were comparable with levels in organisms and tissues from other contaminated areas. Trace element levels in fish muscle were below the international safety baseline standards for human consumption

Distribution and Habitat Associations of Billfish and Swordfish Larvae across Mesoscale Features in the Gulf of Mexico

Ichthyoplankton surveys were conducted in surface waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) over a three-year period (2006–2008) to determine the relative value of this region as early life habitat of sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus), blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), white marlin (Kajikia albida), and swordfish (Xiphias gladius). Sailfish were the dominant billfish collected in summer surveys, and larvae were present at 37.5% of the stations sampled. Blue marlin and white marlin larvae were present at 25.0% and 4.6% of the stations sampled, respectively, while swordfish occurred at 17.2% of the stations. Areas of peak production were detected and maximum density estimates for sailfish (22.09 larvae 1000 m−2) were significantly higher than the three other species: blue marlin (9.62 larvae 1000 m−2), white marlin (5.44 larvae 1000 m−2), and swordfish (4.67 larvae 1000 m−2). The distribution and abundance of billfish and swordfish larvae varied spatially and temporally, and several environmental variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, sea surface height, distance to the Loop Current, current velocity, water depth, and Sargassum biomass) were deemed to be influential variables in generalized additive models (GAMs). Mesoscale features in the NGoM affected the distribution and abundance of billfish and swordfish larvae, with densities typically higher in frontal zones or areas proximal to the Loop Current. Habitat suitability of all four species was strongly linked to physicochemical attributes of the water masses they inhabited, and observed abundance was higher in slope waters with lower sea surface temperature and higher salinity. Our results highlight the value of the NGoM as early life habitat of billfishes and swordfish, and represent valuable baseline data for evaluating anthropogenic effects (i.e., Deepwater Horizon oil spill) on the Atlantic billfish and swordfish populations

Resolving the Trophic Relations of Cryptic Species: An Example Using Stable Isotope Analysis of Dolphin Teeth

Understanding the foraging ecology and diet of animals can play a crucial role in conservation of a species. This is particularly true where species are cryptic and coexist in environments where observing feeding behaviour directly is difficult. Here we present the first information on the foraging ecology of a recently identified species of dolphin (Southern Australian bottlenose dolphin (SABD)) and comparisons to the common bottlenose dolphin (CBD) in Victoria, Australia, using stable isotope analysis of teeth. Stable isotope signatures differed significantly between SABD and CBD for both δ13C (−14.4‰ vs. −15.5‰ respectively) and δ15N (15.9‰ vs. 15.0‰ respectively), suggesting that the two species forage in different areas and consume different prey. This finding supports genetic and morphological data indicating that SABD are distinct from CBD. In Victoria, the SABD is divided into two distinct populations, one in the large drowned river system of Port Phillip Bay and the other in a series of coastal lakes and lagoons called the Gippsland Lakes. Within the SABD species, population differences were apparent. The Port Phillip Bay population displayed a significantly higher δ15N than the Gippsland Lakes population (17.0‰ vs. 15.5‰), suggesting that the Port Phillip Bay population may feed at a higher trophic level - a result which is supported by analysis of local food chains. Important future work is required to further understand the foraging ecology and diet of this newly described, endemic, and potentially endangered species of dolphin

Predator-Induced Demographic Shifts in Coral Reef Fish Assemblages

In recent years, it has become apparent that human impacts have altered community structure in coastal and marine ecosystems worldwide. Of these, fishing is one of the most pervasive, and a growing body of work suggests that fishing can have strong effects on the ecology of target species, especially top predators. However, the effects of removing top predators on lower trophic groups of prey fishes are less clear, particularly in highly diverse and trophically complex coral reef ecosystems. We examined patterns of abundance, size structure, and age-based demography through surveys and collection-based studies of five fish species from a variety of trophic levels at Kiritimati and Palmyra, two nearby atolls in the Northern Line Islands. These islands have similar biogeography and oceanography, and yet Kiritimati has ∼10,000 people with extensive local fishing while Palmyra is a US National Wildlife Refuge with no permanent human population, no fishing, and an intact predator fauna. Surveys indicated that top predators were relatively larger and more abundant at unfished Palmyra, while prey functional groups were relatively smaller but showed no clear trends in abundance as would be expected from classic trophic cascades. Through detailed analyses of focal species, we found that size and longevity of a top predator were lower at fished Kiritimati than at unfished Palmyra. Demographic patterns also shifted dramatically for 4 of 5 fish species in lower trophic groups, opposite in direction to the top predator, including decreases in average size and longevity at Palmyra relative to Kiritimati. Overall, these results suggest that fishing may alter community structure in complex and non-intuitive ways, and that indirect demographic effects should be considered more broadly in ecosystem-based management

Local flexibility in feeding behaviour and contrasting microhabitat use of an omnivore across latitudes

As the environment is getting warmer and species are redistributed, consumers can be forced to adjust their interactions with available prey, and this could have cascading effects within food webs. To better understand the capacity for foraging flexibility, our study aimed to determine the diet variability of an ectotherm omnivore inhabiting kelp forests, the sea urchin Echinus esculentus, along its entire latitudinal distribution in the northeast Atlantic. Using a combination of gut content and stable isotope analyses, we determined the diet and trophic position of sea urchins at sites in Portugal (42° N), France (49° N), southern Norway (63° N), and northern Norway (70° N), and related these results to the local abundance and distribution of putative food items. With mean estimated trophic levels ranging from 2.4 to 4.6, omnivory and diet varied substantially within and between sites but not across latitudes. Diet composition generally reflected prey availability within epiphyte or understorey assemblages, with local affinities demonstrating that the sea urchin adjusts its foraging to match the small-scale distribution of food items. A net “preference” for epiphytic food sources was found in northern Norway, where understorey food was limited compared to other regions. We conclude that diet change may occur in response to food source redistribution at multiple spatial scales (microhabitats, sites, regions). Across these scales, the way that key consumers alter their foraging in response to food availability can have important implication for food web dynamics and ecosystem functions along current and future environmental gradients