Demographic trends in the Okinawa Dialysis Study (OKIDS) registry (1971–2000)

Demographic trends in the Okinawa Dialysis Study (OKIDS) registry (1971–2000).BackgroundThe clinical demographics of chronic dialysis patients are changing worldwide. However, long-term data from regional dialysis registries have not yet been analyzed and reported.MethodsThe Okinawa Dialysis Study (OKIDS) registry included all chronic dialysis patients treated in Okinawa, Japan, since 1971. Data for the years 1971 to 1990 were analyzed to predict trends for 1991 to 2000. The predicted values were then compared to the actual values and analyzed statistically, with particular attention being paid to relative risk of death. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was done to analyze the time factors of relative risk of death.ResultsA total of 5246 patients (2981 men and 2265 women) were registered and the total duration of observation was 28,431 patient-years. The prevalence and incidence of dialysis patients expressed per million population were 2320 and 297, respectively, in 2000, values that were significantly higher (P < 0.02 for both) than the predicted values. The gross mortality rate per 1000 patient-years was 118.4 for 1971 to 1980, 63.3 for 1981 to 1990, and 77.7 for 1991 to 2000. The adjusted hazards ratio (95% confidence interval) for mortality was 0.743 (0.650 to 0.862) for 1981–1990 and 0.721 (0.659 to 0.790) for 1991 to 2000 in comparison to the risk of mortality in 1971 to 1980. The decrease in mortality rate was largely due to the drop in cardiac deaths from 71.0 for 1971 to 1980 to 17.2 for 1991 to 2000.ConclusionsThe incidence and prevalence of chronic dialysis patients increased more than expected over the past decade in Okinawa, Japan. Despite the rapid change in patient demographics, the survival rate did not decrease significantly

Higher medical costs for CKD patients with a rapid decline in eGFR: A cohort study from the Japanese general population

To investigate how changes in eGFR can affect medical costs, a regional cohort of national health insurance beneficiaries in Japan was developed from a nationwide database system (Kokuho database, KDB), and non-individualized data were obtained. From 105,661 people, subjects on chronic dialysis and subjects without consecutive medical checkups were excluded. Finally, medical costs in the follow-up year categorized by annual changes in eGFR between baseline and the next year were longitudinally examined in 70,627 people ranging in age from 40 to 74 years. Global mean costs for subjects with a rapid decrease in eGFR (<=-30%/year) were the highest among all Delta eGFR categories. In men, the cost was 1.42 times that for a stable eGFR. A total of 6,268 (19.4%) men and 5,381 (14.0%) women with eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) were identified in the baseline year. The mean cost was higher with a low eGFR than without a low eGFR, and there were also higher proportions newly initiating dialysis in 2014 (low eGFR with rapid decrease in eGFR vs. with stable eGFR: 9.61% vs. 0.02% in women, P<0.001). Moreover, the costs for low eGFR subjects with a rapid decrease in eGFR were more than twice those of non-low eGFR subjects with a rapid decrease in eGFR and also compared to low eGFR subjects with a stable eGFR. Moreover, initiating chronic dialysis was considered one of the major causes of high medical costs in women with rapid eGFR decline. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of renal disease using a cohort developed from the KDB system recently established in Japan

Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE ‐ Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease  could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health  conditions.  OBJECTIVE – To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of chronic kidney  disease, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).  DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS – Individual level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from  the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5,222,711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected  from April, 1970 through January, 2017. A two‐stage analysis was performed, with each study first  analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Since clinical variables were  often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately within participants  with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external  cohorts (N=2,253,540). EXPOSURE Demographic and clinical factors.  MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES – Incident eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.  RESULTS – In 4,441,084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% female), there were  660,856 incident cases of reduced eGFR during a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years. In 781,627 participants  with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% female), there were 313,646 incident cases during a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5‐year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, BMI, and albuminuria. For participants  with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction  between the two. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5‐year predicted probability of  0.845 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.789‐0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.750‐0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 out of 13 (69%) study populations had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was  similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 out of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE – Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed in over 5 million people from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and  variable calibration in diverse populations