Assessment of evolution and risks of glacier lake outbursts in the Djungarskiy Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat imagery and glacier bed topography modelling

Changes in the abundance and area of mountain lakes in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu) Alatau between 2002 and 2014 were investigated using Landsat imagery. The number of lakes increased by 6.2 % from 599 to 636 with a growth rate of 0.51 % a−1. The combined areas were 16.26 ± 0.85 to 17.35 ± 0.92 km2 respectively and the overall change was within the uncertainty of measurements. Fifty lakes, whose potential outburst can damage existing infrastructure, were identified. The glacier bed topography version 2 (GlabTop2) model was applied to simulate ice thickness and subglacial topography using glacier outlines for 2000 and SRTM DEM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model) as input data achieving realistic patterns of ice thickness. A total of 513 overdeepenings in the modelled glacier beds, presenting potential sites for the development of lakes, were identified with a combined area of 14.7 km2. Morphometric parameters of the modelled overdeepenings were close to those of the existing lakes. A comparison of locations of the overdeepenings and newly formed lakes in the areas de-glacierized in 2000–2014 showed that 67 % of the lakes developed at the sites of the overdeepenings. The rates of increase in areas of new lakes correlated with areas of modelled overdeepenings. Locations where hazardous lakes may develop in the future were identified. The GlabTop2 approach is shown to be a useful tool in hazard management providing data on the potential evolution of future lakes

Changes in the mountain river discharge in the northern Tien Shan since the mid-20th Century: Results from the analysis of a homogeneous daily streamflow data set from seven catchments

This study is an assessment of the changes in seasonal and monthly flow in seven catchments draining the northern Tien Shan Mountains in Central Asia over a period from the 1950s to the present day. The purpose is to provide a first assessment of the flow response to climate change in regionally important catchments given their contribution to the water resource. All the catchments have a natural flow regime, and are therefore sensitive to climate change, but differ in area, elevation and glacial extent. Trends in flow were characterised using the Mann-Kendall test for standard meteorological seasons and individual months for mean flow, five flow quantiles and peak-over-threshold series for the period 1974–2013 at all sites and from the 1950s where data were available. The results were related to trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation from the regional high elevation meteorological stations and glacier mass balance, equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and accumulation area ratio (AAR) records from the Tuyuksu glacier. The results show no reduction in streamflow in any catchment or season in the northern Tien Shan since the 1950s. Positive trends in all flow indicators, including peak over- threshold frequency, were observed in catchments with higher glacierization of over 10% and extensive presence of rock glaciers and permafrost indicating increased melt over the period which is characterised by a long-term increase in temperature. These trends were most evident in autumn and winter. In catchments with low glacierization, variability in summer flow was controlled primarily by precipitation of the preceding cold season. Correlation with glacier mass balance was weak but changes in ELA and AAR indicate that production of liquid runoff at higher elevations contributes to increased streamflow partly compensating for the declining glacier area. The observed changes in streamflow do not suggest any immediate problems with water availability in the northern Tien Shan. On the contrary, increased autumn and winter flows point at a more prolonged recharge of reservoirs and aquifers though eventually this water source will be exhausted

Результаты геодезических измерений баланса массы некоторых ледников Заилийского Алатау

SummaryThe current state and mass balance of some glaciers of the Trans-Ili Alatau (Zailiyskiy Alatau, Tien Shan, Kazakhstan) is estimated in the paper. The remote sensing data (images of the Pléiades satellites) and detailed field geodetic measurements (differential global positioning system with the South G6 instrument)were used for the analysis. The field works were carried out in August-September 2021on the northern slope of the Zailiyskiy Alatau ridge. A digital relief model had been built for the analysis as well. Negative trends in the area of the studied glaciers have been revealed, which generally correspond to the average rate of degradation of the glaciation of the Trans-Ili Alatau from 1955 to the present. A comparison of glaciological (contact, i.e., obtained as a result of measurements made on the glacier) and geodetic (resulted from analysis of remote sensing data) methods for estimating the annual mass balance of the Central Tuyuksu glacier for the period 2016-2021 showed that the final values calculated by these two methods are very close in values. For example, the sum of annual balances calculated by the glaciological method for this period was -2.9 m w.e., or -0.58 a-1 m w.e. per a year, while the balance calculated by the geodetic method for the same period was - 0.63 a-1 m w.e. Thus, the results of comparison of the above methods of the glacier mass-balance investigation confirm that the geodetic one based on satellite measurements and the ground surveys using the South G6 instrument is in a good agreement with results of glaciological methods of measurements and calculations.Деградация оледенения вызывает изменения в горных экосистемах, оказывая непосредственное влияние на жизнедеятельность людей, вызывает изменения в гидрологическом режиме, биогеохимии рек и гляциальных озёр, влияя на качество и доступность водных ресурсов. Рассмотрены вопросы оценки баланса массы ледников северного склона Заилийского (Иле) Алатау посредством применения данных дистанционного зондирования Земли (ДЗЗ) в сочетании с полевыми исследованиями и измерениями

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts