Modelling Spatial Compositional Data: Reconstructions of past land cover and uncertainties

In this paper, we construct a hierarchical model for spatial compositional data, which is used to reconstruct past land-cover compositions (in terms of coniferous forest, broadleaved forest, and unforested/open land) for five time periods during the past $6\,000$ years over Europe. The model consists of a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) with Dirichlet observations. A block updated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), including an adaptive Metropolis adjusted Langevin step, is used to estimate model parameters. The sparse precision matrix in the GMRF provides computational advantages leading to a fast MCMC algorithm. Reconstructions are obtained by combining pollen-based estimates of vegetation cover at a limited number of locations with scenarios of past deforestation and output from a dynamic vegetation model. To evaluate uncertainties in the predictions a novel way of constructing joint confidence regions for the entire composition at each prediction location is proposed. The hierarchical model's ability to reconstruct past land cover is evaluated through cross validation for all time periods, and by comparing reconstructions for the recent past to a present day European forest map. The evaluation results are promising and the model is able to capture known structures in past land-cover compositions

Past land-use and land-cover change: the challenge of quantification at the subcontinental to global scales

No abstract available

RELATION BETWEEN HARDNESS OF (Ti, Al)N BASED MULTILAYERED COATINGS AND PERIODS OF THEIR STACKING

This study aims to model, by using a finite element method, the relationship between the hardness and the period Λ of metal/nitride multilayer coatings (Ti0.54Al0.46/Ti0.54Al0.46N)n in order to understand the increase of the hardness at the low periods [1] and then optimise the multilayer coating architecture to obtain the best mechanical properties. A 2D axisymmetric finite element model of the Berkovich nanoindentation test was developed. The coating was designed as a stacking of Ti0.54Al0.46 and Ti0.54Al0.46N nanolayers with, in the first hypothesis, equal thickness and perfect interface. The elastoplastic behaviours of the metal and nitride layers were identified by Berkovich nanoindentation experiments and inverse analysis on thick monolayer samples. The indentation curves (P-h) obtained by this model depend on the period Λ of the stacking. Simulated (P-h) curves were compared with experimental data on 2 μm thick films with different periods Λ ranging from 10 to 50 nm deposited by RF magnetron sputtering using reactive gas pulsing process (RGPP). The model forecasts are very consistent with the experience for the largest period but the model does not reproduce the hardness increase at the lowest periods. The Λ = 10 nm coating was analysed by electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) on a transmission electron microscope. Results show intermixing of the layers with the presence of nitrogen atoms in the metal layer over a few nanometers [1]. It was concluded that the metal/ceramic interface plays an important role at low periods. The addition in the model of a transition layer in the metal/nitride stacking, with an elastoplastic metal/ceramic medium behaviour, allows to reproduce the nanoindentation experimental curves. The thickness of this transition layer deduced from model updating method is in very good agreement with EELS observations

Global-scale comparisons of human land use: developing shared terminology for land-use practices for global change

Although archaeological data are needed to understand the impacts of past human land use on the Earth system, synthesis is hampered by a lack of consistent categories. We develop hierarchical and scalable land-use classifications for use across the globe

Deciphering the genetic control of innate and adaptive immune responses in pig: a combined genetic and genomic study

Improving animal robustness and resistance to pathogens by adding health criteria in selection schemes is one of the challenging objectives of the next decade. In order to better understand the genetic control of immunity in French Large White pigs, we have launched a program combining genetic and genomic studies not focussing on any particular pathogen. Animals recorded for production traits were scored for a wide range of immunity parameters three weeks after vaccination against Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae: i) total white blood cells and lymphocyte counts and proportions of various leucocyte subsets including cells harbouring IgM, γδTCR, CD4/CD8, CD16/CD2 and CD16/CD172a/MHCII, ii) innate immune response parameters (phagocytosis and in vitro production of IL1B, IL6, IL8, TNF, IL12 and IFNαafter blood stimulation), iii) adaptive immune response parameters (lymphocyte proliferation, in vitro production of IL2, IL4, IL10 and IFNγ after blood stimulation, total IgG, IgA, IgM and specific IgG levels) and iv) two acute phase proteins (C-reactive protein and haploglobin). Across traits, heritability estimates reached 0.4 on average (se=0.1) and 42 of the 54 measured parameters showed moderate to high heritabilities (≥0.2), confirming that many parameters are under genetic control and could be included in selection protocols. Functional analyses revealed that the blood transcriptome is informative for part of the immunity traits and should provide relevant phenotypic information to better characterize some immunity traits

“Think horizontally, act vertically” : the centenary (1916–2016) of pollen analysis and the legacy of Lennart von Post

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The potential of stomata analysis in conifers to estimate presence of conifer trees: examples from the Alps

To estimate whether or not a plant taxon found in the fossil record was locally present may be difficult if only pollen is analyzed. Plant macrofossils, in contrast, provide a clear indication of a taxon's local presence, although in some lake sediments or peats, macrofossils may be rare or degraded. For conifers, the stomata found on pollen slides are derived from needles and thus provide a valuable proxy for local presence and they can be identified to genus level. From previously published studies, a transect across the Alps based on 13 sites is presented. For basal samples in sandy silt above the till with high pollen values of Pinus, for example, we may distinguish pine pollen from distant sources (samples with no stomata), from reworked pollen (samples with stomata present). The first apparent local presence of most conifer genera based on stomata often but not always occurs together with the phase of rapid pollen increase (rational limit). An exception is Larix, with its annual deposition of needles and heavy poorly dispersed pollen, for it often shows the first stomata earlier, at the empirical pollen limit. The decline and potential local extinction of a conifer can sometimes be shown in the stomata record. The decline may have been caused by climatic change, competition, or human impact. In situations where conifers form the timberline, the stomata record may indicate timberline fluctuations. In the discussion of immigration or migration of taxa we advocate the use of the cautious term "apparent local presence” to include some uncertainties. Absence of a taxon is impossible to prove

Holocene changes in vegetation composition in northern Europe: why quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstructions matter

International audienceWe present pollen-based reconstructions of the spatio-temporal dynamics of northern European regional vegetation abundance through the Holocene. We apply the Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model using fossil pollen records from eighteen sites within five modern biomes in the region. The eighteen sites are classified into four time-trajectory types on the basis of principal components analysis of both the REVEALS-based vegetation estimates (RVs) and the pollen percentage (PPs). The four trajectory types are more clearly separated for RVs than PPs. Further, the timing of major Holocene shifts, rates of compositional change, and diversity indices (turnover and evenness) differ between RVs and PPs. The differences are due to the reduction by REVEALS of biases in fossil pollen assemblages caused by different basin size, and inter-taxonomic differences in pollen productivity and dispersal properties. For example, in comparison to the PPs, the RVs show an earlier increase in Corylus and Ulmus in the early-Holocene and a more pronounced increase in grassland and deforested areas since the mid-Holocene. The results suggest that the influence of deforestation and agricultural activities on plant composition and abundance from Neolithic times was stronger than previously inferred from PPs. Relative to PPs, RVs show a more rapid compositional change, a largest decrease in turnover, and less variable evenness in most of northern Europe since 5200 cal yr BP. All these changes are primarily related to the strong impact of human activities on the vegetation. This study demonstrates that RV-based estimates of diversity indices, timing of shifts, and rates of change in reconstructed vegetation provide new insights into the timing and magnitude of major humandisturbance on Holocene regional vegetation, features that are critical in the assessment of humanimpact on vegetation, land-cover, biodiversity, and climate in the past

Creating spatially continuous maps of past land cover from point estimates: A new statistical approach applied to pollen data

International audienceReliable estimates of past land cover are critical for assessing potential effects of anthropogenic land-cover changes on past earth surface-climate feedbacks and landscape complexity. Fossil pollen records from lakes and bogs have provided important information on past natural and human-induced vegetation cover. However, those records provide only point estimates of past land cover, and not the spatially continuous maps at regional and sub-continental scales needed for climate modelling. We propose a set of statistical models that create spatially continuous maps of past land cover by combining two data sets: 1) pollen-based point estimates of past land cover (from the REVEALS model) and 2) spatially continuous estimates of past land cover, obtained by combining simulated potential vegetation (from LPJ-GUESS) with an anthropogenic land-cover change scenario (KK10). The proposed models rely on statistical methodology for compositional data and use Gaussian Markov Random Fields to model spatial dependencies in the data. Land-cover reconstructions are presented for three time windows in Europe: 0.05, 0.2, and 6 ka years before present (BP). The models are evaluated through cross-validation, deviance information criteria and by comparing the reconstruction of the 0.05 ka time window to the present-day land-cover data compiled by the European Forest Institute (EFI). For 0.05 ka, the proposed models provide reconstructions that are closer to the EFI data than either the REVEALS-or LPJ-GUESS/KK10-based estimates; thus the statistical combination of the two estimates improves the reconstruction. The reconstruction by the proposed models for 0.2 ka is also good. For 6 ka, however, the large differences between the REVEALS-and LPJ-GUESS/KK10-based estimates reduce the reliability of the proposed models. Possible reasons for the increased differences between REVEALS and LPJ-GUESS/KK10 for older time periods and further improvement of the proposed models are discussed