Application of DOT-MORSE coupling to the analysis of three-dimensional SNAP shielding problems

The use of discrete ordinates and Monte Carlo techniques to solve radiation transport problems is discussed. A general discussion of two possible coupling schemes is given for the two methods. The calculation of the reactor radiation scattered from a docked service and command module is used as an example of coupling discrete ordinates (DOT) and Monte Carlo (MORSE) calculations

Sustained impact of drought on wet shrublands mediated by soil physical changes

13 páginas.-- 6 figuras.-- 52 referencias.-- The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10533-014-0059-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.-- Domínguez, María Teresa et al...Projected climate warming may substantially increase carbon emissions from wet organic soils, contributing to a positive feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change. Evidence suggests that in these soils the stimulation of soil respiration by warming can be sustained over long periods of time due to the large availability of C substrates. However, the long-term response of wet organic soils to drought remains uncertain. Organo-mineral soils might be particularly vulnerable, because of their limited soil moisture pool to buffer drought events. Using a whole-ecosystem climate-change experiment in North Wales (UK) we show that soil respiration in podzolic (organo-mineral) soils from wet shrublands is more vulnerable to recurrent drought than to warming, and that the drought impact does not attenuate at decadal time scales. Stimulation of soil respiration by drought was linked to major changes in soil structure that led to a 54 % reduction in water holding capacity compared to control. Bryophyte abundance was found to buffer soil moisture losses, moderating soil CO2 efflux under warming. As there was no evidence of change in plant productivity to offset the increased soil C emissions under drought, this response may result in a positive climate feedback. The results indicate the potentially critical role that changes in sub-dominant vegetation and in soil physical properties may have in determining climate change impacts on soil C dynamics.We thank all the CEH staff members who have contributed to the experiment establishment and maintenance over the years, in particular David Williams. This research was funded by the EU projects CLIMOOR, VULCAN and INCREASE FP7-INFRASTRUCTURE-2008-1 (Grant Agreement no. 227628)—the INCREASE project. M.T.D was supported by two postdoctoral fellowships awarded by the Spanish National Science and Technology FoundationPeer reviewe

Patterns and trends of topsoil carbon in the UK: complex interactions of land use change, climate and pollution

The UK Countryside Survey (CS) is a national long-term survey of soils and vegetation that spans three decades (1978–2007). Past studies using CS data have identified clear contrasting trends in topsoil organic carbon (tSOC) concentrations (0–15 cm) related to differences between habitat types. Here we firstly examine changes in tSOC resulting from land use change, and secondly construct mixed models to describe the impact of indirect drivers where land use has been constant. Where it occurs, land use change is a strong driver of SOC change, with largest changes in tSOC for transitions involving SOC-rich soils in upland and bog systems. Afforestation did not always increase tSOC, and the effect of transitions involving woodland was dependent on the other vegetation type. The overall national spatial pattern of tSOC concentration where land use has been constant is most strongly related to vegetation type and topsoil pH, with contributions from climate variables, deposition and geology. Comparisons of models for tSOC across time periods suggest that declining SO4 deposition has allowed recovery of topsoils from acidification, but that this has not resulted in the increased decomposition rates and loss of tSOC which might be expected. As a result, the relationship between pH and tSOC in UK topsoils has changed significantly between 1978 and 2007. The contributions of other indirect drivers in the models suggest negative relationships to seasonal temperature metrics and positive relationships to seasonal precipitation at the dry end of the scale. The results suggest that the CS approach of long-term collection of co-located vegetation and soil biophysical data provides essential tools both for identifying trends in tSOC at national and habitat levels, and for identifying areas of risk or areas with opportunities for managing topsoil SOC and vegetation change

Modelling the ecosystem effects of nitrogen deposition: Model of ecosystem retention and loss of inorganic nitrogen (MERLIN)

A catchment-scale mass-balance model of linked carbon and nitrogen cycling in ecosystems has been developed for simulating leaching losses of inorganic nitrogen. The model (MERLIN) considers linked biotic and abiotic processes affecting the cycling and storage of nitrogen. The model is aggregated in space and time and contains compartments intended to be observable and/or interpretable at the plot or catchment scale. The structure of the model includes the inorganic soil, a plant compartment and two soil organic compartments. Fluxes in and out of the ecosystem and between compartments are regulated by atmospheric deposition, hydrological discharge, plant uptake, litter production, wood production, microbial immobilization, mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification. Nitrogen fluxes are controlled by carbon productivity, the C:N ratios of organic compartments and inorganic nitrogen in soil solution. Inputs required are: 1) temporal sequences of carbon fluxes and pools- 2) time series of hydrological discharge through the soils, 3) historical and current external sources of inorganic nitrogen; 4) current amounts of nitrogen in the plant and soil organic compartments; 5) constants specifying the nitrogen uptake and immobilization characteristics of the plant and soil organic compartments; and 6) soil characteristics such as depth, porosity, bulk density, and anion/cation exchange constants. Outputs include: 1) concentrations and fluxes of NO3 and NH4 in soil solution and runoff; 2) total nitrogen contents of the organic and inorganic compartments; 3) C:N ratios of the aggregated plant and soil organic compartments; and 4) rates of nitrogen uptake and immobilization and nitrogen mineralization. The behaviour of the model is assessed for a combination of land-use change and nitrogen deposition scenarios in a series of speculative simulations. The results of the simulations are in broad agreement with observed and hypothesized behaviour of nitrogen dynamics in growing forests receiving nitrogen deposition

An application of hybrid life cycle assessment as a decision support framework for green supply chains

In an effort to achieve sustainable operations, green supply chain management has become an important area for firms to concentrate on due to its inherent involvement with all the processes that provide foundations to successful business. Modelling methodologies of product supply chain environmental assessment are usually guided by the principles of life cycle assessment (LCA). However, a review of the extant literature suggests that LCA techniques suffer from a wide range of limitations that prevent a wider application in real-world contexts; hence, they need to be incorporated within decision support frameworks to aid environmental sustainability strategies. Thus, this paper contributes in understanding and overcoming the dichotomy between LCA model development and the emerging practical implementation to inform carbon emissions mitigation strategies within supply chains. Therefore, the paper provides both theoretical insights and a practical application to inform the process of adopting a decision support framework based on a LCA methodology in a real-world scenario. The supply chain of a product from the steel industry is considered to evaluate its environmental impact and carbon ‘hotspots’. The study helps understanding how operational strategies geared towards environmental sustainability can be informed using knowledge and information generated from supply chain environmental assessments, and for highlighting inherent challenges in this process

Acid deposition, land-use change and global change: MAGIC 7 model applied to Aber, UK (NITREX project) and Risdalsheia, Norway (RAIN and CLIMEX projects)

International audienceNitrogen processes are now included in a new version of MAGIC (version 7), a process-oriented catchment-scale model for simulating runoff chemistry. Net retention of nitrogen (N) is assumed to be controlled by plant uptake and the carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratio of soil organic matter, the latter as evidenced by empirical data from forest stands in Europe. The ability of this version of MAGIC 7 to simulate and predict inorganic N concentrations in runoff is evaluated by means of data from whole-ecosystem manipulation experiments at Aber, Wales, UK, (nitrogen addition as part of the NITREX project) and Risdalsheia, Norway (exclusion of acid deposition as part of the RAIN project and climate change as part of the CLIMEX project). MAGIC 7 simulated the changes in N leaching satisfactorily as well as changes in base cations and acid neutralising capacity observed at these two sites. MAGIC 7 offers a potential tool for regional assessments and scenario studies of the combined effects of acid deposition, land-use and climate change

On the Sensitivity and Specificity of Postmortem Upper Respiratory Tract Testing for SARS-CoV-2

Background Postmortem testing can improve our understanding of the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) if sufficiently sensitive and specific. Methods We investigated the postmortem sensitivity and specificity of reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing on upper respiratory swabs using a dataset of everyone tested for SARS-CoV-2 before and after death in England, 1 March to 29 October 2020. We analyzed sensitivity in those with a positive test before death by time to postmortem test. We developed a multivariate model and conducted time-to-negativity survival analysis. For specificity, we analyzed those with a negative test in the week before death. Results Postmortem testing within a week after death had a sensitivity of 96.8% if the person had tested positive within a week before death. There was no effect of age, sex, or specimen type on sensitivity, but individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)–related codes on their death certificate were 5.65 times more likely to test positive after death (95% confidence interval, 2.31–13.9). Specificity was 94.2%, increasing to 97.5% in individuals without COVID-19 on the death certificate. Conclusion Postmortem testing has high sensitivity (96.8%) and specificity (94.2%) if performed within a week after death and could be a useful diagnostic tool

Global assessment of nitrogen deposition effects on terrestrial plant diversity : a synthesis

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is it recognized threat to plant diversity ill temperate and northern parts of Europe and North America. This paper assesses evidence from field experiments for N deposition effects and thresholds for terrestrial plant diversity protection across a latitudinal range of main categories of ecosystems. from arctic and boreal systems to tropical forests. Current thinking on the mechanisms of N deposition effects on plant diversity, the global distribution of G200 ecoregions, and current and future (2030) estimates of atmospheric N-deposition rates are then used to identify the risks to plant diversity in all major ecosystem types now and in the future. This synthesis paper clearly shows that N accumulation is the main driver of changes to species composition across the whole range of different ecosystem types by driving the competitive interactions that lead to composition change and/or making conditions unfavorable for some species. Other effects such its direct toxicity of nitrogen gases and aerosols long-term negative effects of increased ammonium and ammonia availability, soil-mediated effects of acidification, and secondary stress and disturbance are more ecosystem, and site-specific and often play a supporting role. N deposition effects in mediterranean ecosystems have now been identified, leading to a first estimate of an effect threshold. Importantly, ecosystems thought of as not N limited, such as tropical and subtropical systems, may be more vulnerable in the regeneration phase. in situations where heterogeneity in N availability is reduced by atmospheric N deposition, on sandy soils, or in montane areas. Critical loads are effect thresholds for N deposition. and the critical load concept has helped European governments make progress toward reducing N loads on sensitive ecosystems. More needs to be done in Europe and North America. especially for the more sensitive ecosystem types. including several ecosystems of high conservation importance. The results of this assessment Show that the Vulnerable regions outside Europe and North America which have not received enough attention are ecoregions in eastern and Southern Asia (China, India), an important part of the mediterranean ecoregion (California, southern Europe). and in the coming decades several subtropical and tropical parts of Latin America and Africa. Reductions in plant diversity by increased atmospheric N deposition may be more widespread than first thought, and more targeted Studies are required in low background areas, especially in the G200 ecoregions

Experimental evidence for drought induced alternative stable states of soil moisture

Ecosystems may exhibit alternative stable states (ASS) in response to environmental change. Modelling and observational data broadly support the theory of ASS, however evidence from manipulation experiments supporting this theory is limited. Here, we provide long-term manipulation and observation data supporting the existence of drought induced alternative stable soil moisture states (irreversible soil wetting) in upland Atlantic heath, dominated by Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull. Manipulated repeated moderate summer drought, and intense natural summer drought both lowered resilience resulting in shifts in soil moisture dynamics. The repeated moderate summer drought decreased winter soil moisture retention by ~10%. However, intense summer drought, superimposed on the experiment, that began in 2003 and peaked in 2005 caused an unexpected erosion of resilience and a shift to an ASS; both for the experimental drought manipulation and control plots, impairing the soil from rewetting in winter. Measurements outside plots, with vegetation removal, showed no evidence of moisture shifts. Further independent evidence supports our findings from historical soil moisture monitoring at a long-term upland hydrological observatory. The results herald the need for a new paradigm regarding our understanding of soil structure, hydraulics and climate interaction