Limited contribution of permafrost carbon to methane release from thawing peatlands

Models predict that thaw of permafrost soils at northern high-latitudes will release tens of billions of tonnes of carbon (C) to the atmosphere by 21001-3. The effect on the Earth's climate depends strongly on the proportion of this C which is released as the more powerful greenhouse gas methane (CH4), rather than carbon dioxide (CO2)1,4; even if CH4 emissions represent just 2% of the C release, they would contribute approximately one quarter of the climate forcing5. In northern peatlands, thaw of ice-rich permafrost causes surface subsidence (thermokarst) and water-logging6, exposing substantial stores (10s of kg C m-2, ref. 7) of previously-frozen organic matter to anaerobic conditions, and generating ideal conditions for permafrost-derived CH4 release. Here we show that, contrary to expectations, although substantial CH4 fluxes (>20 g CH4 m 2 yr-1) were recorded from thawing peatlands in northern Canada, only a small amount was derived from previously-frozen C (<2 g CH4 m-2 yr-1). Instead, fluxes were driven by anaerobic decomposition of recent C inputs. We conclude that thaw-induced changes in surface wetness and wetland area, rather than the anaerobic decomposition of previously-frozen C, may determine the effect of permafrost thaw on CH4 emissions from northern peatlands

Vegetation Type Dominates the Spatial Variability in CH<inf>4</inf> Emissions Across Multiple Arctic Tundra Landscapes

Methane (CH4) emissions from Arctic tundra are an important feedback to global climate. Currently, modelling and predicting CH4 fluxes at broader scales are limited by the challenge of upscaling plot-scale measurements in spatially heterogeneous landscapes, and by uncertainties regarding key controls of CH4 emissions. In this study, CH4 and CO2 fluxes were measured together with a range of environmental variables and detailed vegetation analysis at four sites spanning 300 km latitude from Barrow to Ivotuk (Alaska). We used multiple regression modelling to identify drivers of CH4 flux, and to examine relationships between gross primary productivity (GPP), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and CH4 fluxes. We found that a highly simplified vegetation classification consisting of just three vegetation types (wet sedge, tussock sedge and other) explained 54% of the variation in CH4 fluxes across the entire transect, performing almost as well as a more complex model including water table, sedge height and soil moisture (explaining 58% of the variation in CH4 fluxes). Substantial CH4 emissions were recorded from tussock sedges in locations even when the water table was lower than 40 cm below the surface, demonstrating the importance of plant-mediated transport. We also found no relationship between instantaneous GPP and CH4 fluxes, suggesting that models should be cautious in assuming a direct relationship between primary production and CH4 emissions. Our findings demonstrate the importance of vegetation as an integrator of processes controlling CH4 emissions in Arctic ecosystems, and provide a simplified framework for upscaling plot scale CH4 flux measurements from Arctic ecosystems

Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using adynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution

A large amount of organic carbon is stored in highlatitude soils. A substantial proportion of this carbon stock is vulnerable and may decompose rapidly due to temperature increases that are already greater than the global average. It is therefore crucial to quantify and understand carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subarctic/arctic ecosystems. In this paper, we combine an Arctic-enabled version of the process-based dynamic ecosystem model, LPJGUESS (version LPJG-WHyMe-TFM) with comprehensive observations of terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes to simulate long-term carbon exchange in a subarctic catchment at 50m resolution. Integrating the observed carbon fluxes from aquatic systems with the modeled terrestrial carbon fluxes across the whole catchment, we estimate that the area is a carbon sink at present and will become an even stronger carbon sink by 2080, which is mainly a result of a projected densification of birch forest and its encroachment into tundra heath. However, the magnitudes of the modeled sinks are very dependent on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Furthermore, comparisons of global warming potentials between two simulations with and without CO2 increase since 1960 reveal that the increased methane emission from the peatland could double the warming effects of the whole catchment by 2080 in the absence of CO2 fertilization of the vegetation. This is the first process-based model study of the temporal evolution of a catchment-level carbon budget at high spatial resolution, including both terrestrial and aquatic carbon. Though this study also highlights some limitations in modeling subarctic ecosystem responses to climate change, such as aquatic system flux dynamics, nutrient limitation, herbivory and other disturbances, and peatland expansion, our study provides one process-based approach to resolve the complexity of carbon cycling in subarctic ecosystems while simultaneously pointing out the key model developments for capturing complex subarctic processes

Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw

This is the final version. Available on open access from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this recordData Availability. The results and peat core data are summarized in Datasets S1–S6. Maps of predicted peatland extent, peat depth, and peat C and N storage (10-km pixels) are archived and freely available for download at https://bolin.su.se/data/hugelius-2020Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.Swedish Research CouncilEuropean UnionEuropean Union Horizon 2020Gordon and Betty and Gordon Moore FoundationNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)National Science FoundationNational Natural Science Foundation of Chin

Environmental and vegetation controls on the spatial variability of CH4 emission from wet-sedge and tussock tundra ecosystems in the Arctic

Aims Despite multiple studies investigating the environmental controls on CH4 fluxes from arctic tundra ecosystems, the high spatial variability of CH4 emissions is not fully understood. This makes the upscaling of CH4 fluxes from plot to regional scale, particularly challenging. The goal of this study is to refine our knowledge of the spatial variability and controls on CH4 emission from tundra ecosystems. Methods CH4 fluxes were measured in four sites across a variety of wet-sedge and tussock tundra ecosystems in Alaska using chambers and a Los Gatos CO2 and CH4 gas analyser. Results All sites were found to be sources of CH4, with northern sites (in Barrow) showing similar CH4 emission rates to the southernmost site (ca. 300 km south, Ivotuk). Gross primary productivity (GPP), water level and soil temperature were the most important environmental controls on CH4 emission. Greater vascular plant cover was linked with higher CH4 emission, but this increased emission with increased vascular plant cover was much higher (86 %) in the drier sites, than the wettest sites (30 %), suggesting that transport and/or substrate availability were crucial limiting factors for CH4 emission in these tundra ecosystems. Conclusions Overall, this study provides an increased understanding of the fine scale spatial controls on CH4 flux, in particular the key role that plant cover and GPP play in enhancing CH4 emissions from tundra soils

Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes

Thermokarst is the process whereby the thawing of ice-rich permafrost ground causes land subsidence, resulting in development of distinctive landforms. Accelerated thermokarst due to climate change will damage infrastructure, but also impact hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry. Here, we present a circumpolar assessment of the distribution of thermokarst landscapes, defined as landscapes comprised of current thermokarst landforms and areas susceptible to future thermokarst development. At 3.6 × 106 km2, thermokarst landscapes are estimated to cover ∼20% of the northern permafrost region, with approximately equal contributions from three landscape types where characteristic wetland, lake and hillslope thermokarst landforms occur. We estimate that approximately half of the below-ground organic carbon within the study region is stored in thermokarst landscapes. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering thermokarst when assessing impacts of climate change, including future landscape greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a means for assessing such impacts at the circumpolar scale

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: a Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate

Aquatic Ecosystems are the Largest Source of Methane on Earth

Methane concentrations in the atmosphere have almost tripled since the industrial revolution, contributing 16% of the additional radiative forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Aquatic ecosystems are an important but poorly constrained source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Here, we present the first global methane emission assessment from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems including streams and rivers, freshwater lakes and reservoirs, aquaculture ponds, estuaries, coastal vegetated wetlands (mangroves, salt-marshes, seagrasses), tidal flats, continental shelves and the open ocean, in comparison to recent estimates from natural wetlands and rice paddies. We find that aquatic systems are the largest source of methane globally with contributions from small lakes and coastal ocean ecosystems higher than previously estimated. We suggest that increased biogenic methane from aquatic ecosystems due to a combined effect of climate-feedbacks and human disturbance, may contribute more than expected to rising methane concentrations in the atmosphere

Aquatic Ecosystems are the Most Uncertain but Potentially Largest Source of Methane on Earth

Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas that has tripled in concentration since pre-industrial times. The causes of rising methane concentrations are poorly understood given its multiple sources and complex biogeochemistry. Natural and human-made aquatic ecosystems, including wetlands, are potentially the largest single source of methane, but their total emissions relative to other sources have not been assessed. Based on a new synthesis of inventory, remote sensing and modeling efforts, we present a bottom-up estimate of methane emissions from streams and rivers, freshwater lakes and reservoirs, estuaries, coastal wetlands (mangroves, seagrasses, salt-marshes), intertidal flats, aquaculture ponds, continental shelves, along with recently published estimates of global methane emissions from freshwater wetlands, rice paddies, the continental slope and open ocean. Our findings emphasize the high variability of aquatic methane fluxes and a possibly skewed distribution of currently available data, making global estimates sensitive to statistical assumptions. Mean emissions make aquatic ecosystems the largest source of methane globally (53% of total global methane emissions). Median emissions are 42% of the total global methane emissions. We argue that these emissions will likely increase due to urbanization, eutrophication and climate change

Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution

A large amount of organic carbon is stored in high-latitude soils. A substantial proportion of this carbon stock is vulnerable and may decompose rapidly due to temperature increases that are already greater than the global average. It is therefore crucial to quantify and understand carbon exchange between the atmosphere and subarctic/arctic ecosystems. In this paper, we combine an Arctic-enabled version of the process-based dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (version LPJG-WHyMe-TFM) with comprehensive observations of terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes to simulate long-term carbon exchange in a subarctic catchment at 50 m resolution. Integrating the observed carbon fluxes from aquatic systems with the modeled terrestrial carbon fluxes across the whole catchment, we estimate that the area is a carbon sink at present and will become an even stronger carbon sink by 2080, which is mainly a result of a projected densification of birch forest and its encroachment into tundra heath. However, the magnitudes of the modeled sinks are very dependent on future atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Furthermore, comparisons of global warming potentials between two simulations with and without CO₂ increase since 1960 reveal that the increased methane emission from the peatland could double the warming effects of the whole catchment by 2080 in the absence of CO₂ fertilization of the vegetation. This is the first process-based model study of the temporal evolution of a catchment-level carbon budget at high spatial resolution, including both terrestrial and aquatic carbon. Though this study also highlights some limitations in modeling subarctic ecosystem responses to climate change, such as aquatic system flux dynamics, nutrient limitation, herbivory and other disturbances, and peatland expansion, our study provides one process-based approach to resolve the complexity of carbon cycling in subarctic ecosystems while simultaneously pointing out the key model developments for capturing complex subarctic processes.For a previous discussion paper please see: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/56948. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. The published article can be found at: http://www.biogeosciences.net/home.html