Common climatic signal from glaciers in the European Alps over the last 50 years

Conventional glacier-wide mass balances are commonly used to study the effect of climate forcing on glacier melt. Unfortunately, the glacier-wide mass balances are also influenced by the glacier's dynamic response. Investigations on the effects of climate forcing on glaciers can be largely improved by analyzing point mass balances. Using a statistical model, we have found that 52% of the year-to-year deviations in the point mass balances of six glaciers distributed across the entire European Alps can be attributed to a common variability. Point mass balance changes reveal remarkable regional consistencies reaching 80% for glaciers less than 10 km apart. Compared to the steady state conditions of the 1962–1982 period, the surface mass balance changes are −0.85 m water equivalent (w.e.) a⁻¹ for 1983–2002 and −1.63 m w.e. a⁻¹ for 2003–2013. This indicates a clear and regionally consistent acceleration of mass loss over recent decades over the entire European Alps

Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR(∞) Models *

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/101814/1/1468-2354.t01-1-00016.pd

An RBC model with investment-specific technological change: lessons for Bulgaria (1999–2018)

We introduce investment-specific technological change (ISTC) into an otherwise standard real-business-cycle setup with a government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999–2018). We then investigate the quantitative importance of the ISTC process in such a model for cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria, and compare the results to a setup where cycles are driven by shocks to total factor productivity. We find that the model with ISTC shocks matches Bulgarian data better than the standard model driven by changes to total factor productivity only. The ISTC process is thus a better candidate for a a ”technology shock generation process,” at least in Bulgaria since the 2000s

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/