Bayesian and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for identifying nonlinear systems in the presence of uncertainty

In this paper, the authors outline the general principles behind an approach to Bayesian system identification and highlight the benefits of adopting a Bayesian framework when attempting to identify models of nonlinear dynamical systems in the presence of uncertainty. It is then described how, through a summary of some key algorithms, many of the potential difficulties associated with a Bayesian approach can be overcome through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The paper concludes with a case study, where an MCMC algorithm is used to facilitate the Bayesian system identification of a nonlinear dynamical system from experimentally observed acceleration time histories

Do emotional difficulties and peer problems hew together from childhood to adolescence? The case of children with a history of developmental language disorder (DLD)

Children and adolescents with developmental language disorder (DLD) are, overall, vulnerable to difficulties in emotional adjustment and in peer relations. However, previous research has shown that different subgroups follow different trajectories in respect of quality of peer relations. Less is known of the trajectories of emotional development. We consider here the possibility that development in these two domains is interrelated: that is, the trajectories of emotional and peer problems will proceed in parallel. We conducted longitudinal joint trajectories analyses of emotional and peer relations in a sample of young people identified as having DLD at age 7 years and seen at intervals up to 16 years. Potential influences on joint trajectory group membership were examined. Findings revealed five distinct joint trajectories. Emotional and peer difficulties do hew together from childhood to adolescence for just over half of the sample, but not all. The variables most clearly associated with group membership were pragmatic language ability, prosociality and parental mental health. This is the first study to examine joint longitudinal trajectories of emotional and peer difficulties in individuals with DLD. We demonstrate that development in individuals with DLD is heterogeneous and identify three key variables associated with personal and social adjustment from childhood to adolescence. Theoretical and clinical implications of these findings are discussed

Global and regional brain metabolic scaling and its functional consequences

Background: Information processing in the brain requires large amounts of metabolic energy, the spatial distribution of which is highly heterogeneous reflecting complex activity patterns in the mammalian brain. Results: Here, it is found based on empirical data that, despite this heterogeneity, the volume-specific cerebral glucose metabolic rate of many different brain structures scales with brain volume with almost the same exponent around -0.15. The exception is white matter, the metabolism of which seems to scale with a standard specific exponent -1/4. The scaling exponents for the total oxygen and glucose consumptions in the brain in relation to its volume are identical and equal to $0.86\pm 0.03$, which is significantly larger than the exponents 3/4 and 2/3 suggested for whole body basal metabolism on body mass. Conclusions: These findings show explicitly that in mammals (i) volume-specific scaling exponents of the cerebral energy expenditure in different brain parts are approximately constant (except brain stem structures), and (ii) the total cerebral metabolic exponent against brain volume is greater than the much-cited Kleiber's 3/4 exponent. The neurophysiological factors that might account for the regional uniformity of the exponents and for the excessive scaling of the total brain metabolism are discussed, along with the relationship between brain metabolic scaling and computation.Comment: Brain metabolism scales with its mass well above 3/4 exponen

Modeling Slope Instability as Shear Rupture Propagation in a Saturated Porous Medium

When a region of intense shear in a slope is much thinner than other relevant geometric lengths, this shear failure may be approximated as localized slip, as in faulting, with strength determined by frictional properties of the sediment and effective stress normal to the failure surface. Peak and residual frictional strengths of submarine sediments indicate critical slope angles well above those of most submarine slopes—in contradiction to abundant failures. Because deformation of sediments is governed by effective stress, processes affecting pore pressures are a means of strength reduction. However, common methods of exami ning slope stability neglect dynamically variable pore pressure during failure. We examine elastic-plastic models of the capped Drucker-Prager type and derive approximate equations governing pore pressure about a slip surface when the adjacent material may deform plastically. In the process we identify an elastic-plastic hydraulic diffusivity with an evolving permeability and plastic storage term analogous to the elastic term of traditional poroelasticity. We also examine their application to a dynamically propagating subsurface rupture and find indications of downslope directivity.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied Science

Age-Related Attenuation of Dominant Hand Superiority

The decline of motor performance of the human hand-arm system with age is well-documented. While dominant hand performance is superior to that of the non-dominant hand in young individuals, little is known of possible age-related changes in hand dominance. We investigated age-related alterations of hand dominance in 20 to 90 year old subjects. All subjects were unambiguously right-handed according to the Edinburgh Handedness Inventory. In Experiment 1, motor performance for aiming, postural tremor, precision of arm-hand movement, speed of arm-hand movement, and wrist-finger speed tasks were tested. In Experiment 2, accelerometer-sensors were used to obtain objective records of hand use in everyday activities

The effect of fight cost structure on fighting behaviour

A common feature of animal populations is the stealing by animals of resources such as food from other animals. This has previously been the subject of a range of modelling approaches, one of which is the so called "producer-scrounger" model. In this model a producer finds a resource that takes some time to be consumed, and some time later a (generally) conspecific scrounger discovers the producer with its resource and potentially attempts to steal it. In this paper we consider a variant of this scenario where each individual can choose to invest an amount of energy into this contest, and the level of investment of each individual determines the probability of it winning the contest, but also the additional cost it has to bear. We analyse the model for a specific set of cost functions and maximum investment levels and show how the evolutionarily stable behaviour depends upon them. In particular we see that for high levels of maximum investment, the producer keeps the resource without a fight for concave cost functions, but for convex functions the scrounger obtains the resource (albeit at some cost)

The deuteron: structure and form factors

A brief review of the history of the discovery of the deuteron in provided. The current status of both experiment and theory for the elastic electron scattering is then presented.Comment: 80 pages, 33 figures, submited to Advances in Nuclear Physic

Using PCR-Based Detection and Genotyping to Trace Streptococcus salivarius Meningitis Outbreak Strain to Oral Flora of Radiology Physician Assistant

We recently investigated three cases of bacterial meningitis that were reported from a midwestern radiology clinic where facemasks were not worn during spinal injection of contrast agent during myelography procedures. Using pulsed field gel electrophoresis we linked a case strain of S. salivarius to an oral specimen of a radiology physician assistant (RPA). We also used a real-time PCR assay to detect S. salivarius DNA within a culture-negative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimen. Here we extend this investigation through using a nested PCR/sequencing strategy to link the culture-negative CSF specimen to the case strain. We also provide validation of the real-time PCR assay used, demonstrating that it is not solely specific for Streptococcus salivarius, but is also highly sensitive for detection of the closely related oral species Streptococcus vestibularis. Through using multilocus sequence typing and 16S rDNA sequencing we further strengthen the link between the CSF case isolate and the RPA carriage isolate. We also demonstrate that the newly characterized strains from this study are distinct from previously characterized S. salivarius strains associated with carriage and meningitis

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio