Operationalizing risk perception and preparedness behavior research for a multi-hazard context

Increasingly, citizens are being asked to take a more active role in disaster risk reduction (DRR), as decentralization of hazard governance has shifted greater responsibility for hazard preparedness actions onto individuals. Simultaneously, the taxonomy of hazards considered for DRR has expanded to include medical and social crises alongside natural hazards. Risk perception research emerged to support decision-makers with understanding how people characterize and evaluate different hazards to anticipate behavioral response and guide risk communication. Since its inception, the risk perception concept has been incorporated into many behavioral theories, which have been applied to examine preparedness for numerous hazard types. Behavioral theories have had moderate success in predicting or explaining preparedness behaviors; however, they are typically applied to a single hazard type and there is a gap in understanding which theories (if any) are suited for examining multiple hazard types simultaneously. This paper first reviews meta-analyses of behavioral theories to better understand performance. Universal lessons learnt are summarized for survey design. Second, theoretically based preparedness studies for floods, earthquakes, epidemics, and terrorism are reviewed to assess the conceptual requirements for a ‘multi-hazard’ preparedness approach. The development of an online preparedness self-assessment and learning platform is discussed

ROC curve regression analysis: the use of ordinal regression models for diagnostic test assessment.

Diagnostic tests commonly are characterized by their true positive (sensitivity) and true negative (specificity) classification rates, which rely on a single decision threshold to classify a test result as positive. A more complete description of test accuracy is given by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a graph of the false positive and true positive rates obtained as the decision threshold is varied. A generalized regression methodology, which uses a class of ordinal regression models to estimate smoothed ROC curves has been described. Data from a multi-institutional study comparing the accuracy of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging with computed tomography (CT) in detecting liver metastases, which are ideally suited for ROC regression analysis, are described. The general regression model is introduced and an estimate for the area under the ROC curve and its standard error using parameters of the ordinal regression model is given. An analysis of the liver data that highlights the utility of the methodology in parsimoniously adjusting comparisons for covariates is presented

Cell kinetic analysis of murine squamous cell carcinomas: a comparison of single versus double labelling using flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry.

The study was originally set up to measure accurate cell kinetic parameters in two murine squamous cell carcinomas (scc) for comparison with radiobiological data on proliferation during radiotherapy. The tumours, AT84 and AT478, were both moderately well differentiated aneuploid scc. In the course of the study, several comparisons of techniques were made in two different centres. This paper reports on the results of those comparisons involving two different detection methods (flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry), single vs double labelling, and in vivo and in vitro labelling, the latter using tissue slices incubated under high pressure oxygen. Pulse labelling studies with bromodeoxyuridine (BrdUrd) showed that the labelling indices (LI) were not significantly different after in vitro or in vivo labelling. In addition, the flow cytometry (FCM) and immunohistochemistry (IHC) methods also gave labelling indices which were not significantly different. Only tumour cells were analysed in these studies by selecting cells on the basis of aneuploidy (FCM) or morphology (IHC). The DNA synthesis time of the tumour cells were analysed by both techniques. For FCM, the Relative Movement method was used (Begg et al., 1985). For IHC, a double labelling method was used, employing BrdUrd and triated thymidine (3H-TdR) administered several hours apart, detected simultaneously using immunoperoxidase and autoradiography, respectively. When both labels were administered in vivo, there was good agreement for Ts between the FCM and IHC methods. Attempts were also made to measure Ts in vitro using both techniques. With double labelling, it was found that cells did not take up the second label, implying a failure of cycle progression. This was confirmed by FCM results, showing no movement of labelled cells through the S-phase, despite an initially high uptake. This could not be influenced by lowering the DNA precursor concentration or by adding foetal calf serum. This indicates that DNA synthesis times are difficult or impossible to measure in vitro in fresh tumour explants. Finally, the double labelling IHC method allowed intratumoural variations of both LI and Ts to be studied. Both parameters were found to vary markedly throughout the tumour volume, particularly for larger tumours (600 mg), giving calculated local potential doubling time values (Tpot) ranging from 1-7 days

What is the contribution of physician associates in hospital care in England? A mixed methods, multiple case study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the deployment of physician associates (PAs); the factors supporting and inhibiting their employment and their contribution and impact on patients' experience and outcomes and the organisation of services. DESIGN: Mixed methods within a case study design, using interviews, observations, work diaries and documentary analysis. SETTING: Six acute care hospitals in three regions of England in 2016-2017. PARTICIPANTS: 43 PAs, 77 other health professionals, 28 managers, 28 patients and relatives. RESULTS: A key influencing factor supporting the employment of PAs in all settings was a shortage of doctors. PAs were found to be acceptable, appropriate and safe members of the medical/surgical teams by the majority of doctors, managers and nurses. They were mainly deployed to undertake inpatient ward work in the medical/surgical team during core weekday hours. They were reported to positively contribute to: continuity within their medical/surgical team, patient experience and flow, inducting new junior doctors, supporting the medical/surgical teams' workload, which released doctors for more complex patients and their training. The lack of regulation and attendant lack of authority to prescribe was seen as a problem in many but not all specialties. The contribution of PAs to productivity and patient outcomes was not quantifiable separately from other members of the team and wider service organisation. Patients and relatives described PAs positively but most did not understand who and what a PA was, often mistaking them for doctors. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers new insights concerning the deployment and contribution of PAs in medical and surgical specialties in English hospitals. PAs provided a flexible addition to the secondary care workforce without drawing from existing professions. Their utility in the hospital setting is unlikely to be completely realised without the appropriate level of regulation and authority to prescribe medicines and order ionising radiation within their scope of practice

The Waipounamu Erosion Surface: questioning the antiquity of the New Zealand land surface and terrestrial fauna and flora

The Waipounamu Erosion Surface is a time-transgressive, nearly planar, wave-cut surface. It is not a peneplain. Formation of the Waipounamu Erosion Surface began in Late Cretaceous time following break-up of Gondwanaland, and continued until earliest Miocene time, during a 60 million year period of widespread tectonic quiescence, thermal subsidence and marine transgression. Sedimentary facies and geomorphological evidence suggest that the erosion surface may have eventually covered the New Zealand subcontinent (Zealandia). We can find no geological evidence to indicate that land areas were continuously present throughout the middle Cenozoic. Important implications of this conclusion are: (1) the New Zealand subcontinent was largely, or entirely, submerged and (2) New Zealand's present terrestrial fauna and flora evolved largely from fortuitous arrivals during the past 22 million years. Thus the modern terrestrial biota may not be descended from archaic ancestors residing on Zealandia when it broke away from Gondwanaland in the Cretaceous, since the terrestrial biota would have been extinguished if this landmass was submerged in Oligocene–Early Miocene time. We conclude that there is insufficient geological basis for assuming that land was continuously present in the New Zealand region through Oligocene to Early Miocene time, and we therefore contemplate the alternative possibility, complete submergence of Zealandia

Can early host responses to mycobacterial infection predict eventual disease outcomes?

Diagnostic tests used for Johne’s disease in sheep either have poor sensitivity and specificity or only detect disease in later stages of infection. Predicting which of the infected sheep are likely to become infectious later in life is currently not feasible and continues to be a major hindrance in disease control. We conducted this longitudinal study to investigate if a suite of diagnostic tests conducted in Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) exposed lambs at 4 months post infection can accurately predict their clinical status at 12 months post infection. We tracked cellular and humoral responses and quantity of MAP shedding for up to 12 months post challenge in 20 controls and 37 exposed sheep. Infection was defined at necropsy by tissue culture and disease spectrum by lesion type. Data were analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models and a subset of variables from the earliest period post inoculation (4 months) was selected for predicting disease outcomes later on (12 months). Sensitivity and specificity of tests and their combinations in series and parallel were determined. Early elevation in faecal MAP DNA quantity and a lower interferon gamma (IFNγ) response were significantly associated with sheep becoming infectious as well as progressing to severe disease. Conversely, early low faecal MAP DNA and higher interleukin-10 responses were significantly associated with an exposed animal developing protective immunity. Combination of early elevated faecal MAP DNA or lower IFNγ response had the highest sensitivity (75%) and specificity (81%) for identifying sheep that would become infectious. Collectively, these results highlight the potential for combined test interpretation to aid in the early prediction of sheep susceptibility to MAP infection. KEYWORDS: Paratuberculosis; diagnostic tests; Mycobacterium; faecal DNA; Johne’s disease; interferon gamma.This work was supported by Meat and Livestock Australia and by Cattle Council of Australia, Sheepmeat Council of Australia and WoolProducers Australia through Animal Health Australia

Biomechanics for inclusive urban design : effects of tactile paving on older adults’ gait when crossing the street

In light of our ageing population it is important that the urban environment is easily accessible and hence supports older adults’ independence. Tactile ‘blister’ paving was originally designed to provide guidance for visually impaired people at pedestrian crossings. However, as research links irregular surfaces to falls in older adults, such paving may have an adverse effect on older people. We investigated the effects of tactile paving on older adults’ gait in a scenario closely resembling “crossing the street”. Gait analysis of 32 healthy older adults showed that tactile, as compared to smooth, paving increases the variability in timing of foot placement by 20%, thereby indicating a disturbance of the rhythmic gait pattern. Moreover, toe-clearance during the swing phase increased by 7% on tactile paving, and the ability to stop upon cue from the traffic light was compromised. These results need to be viewed under consideration of the limitations associated with laboratory studies and real world analysis is needed to fully understand their implications for urban design

Accelerated hyperfractionation (AHF) compared to conventional fractionation (CF) in the postoperative radiotherapy of locally advanced head and neck cancer: influence of proliferation

Based on the assumption that an accelerated proliferation process prevails in tumour cell residues after surgery, the possibility that treatment acceleration would offer a therapeutic advantage in postoperative radiotherapy of locally advanced head and neck cancer was investigated. The value of Tpot in predicting the treatment outcome and in selecting patients for accelerated fractionation was tested. Seventy patients with (T2/N1–N2) or (T3-4/any N) squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity, larynx and hypopharynx who underwent radical surgery, were randomized to either (a) accelerated hyperfractionation: 46.2 Gy per 12 days, 1.4 Gy per fraction, three fractions per day with 6 h interfraction interval, treating 6 days per week or (b) Conventional fractionation: 60 Gy per 6 weeks, 2 Gy per fraction, treating 5 days per week. The 3-year locoregional control rate was significantly better in the accelerated hyperfractionation (88±4%) than in the CF (57±9%) group, P=0.01 (and this was confirmed by multivariate analysis), but the difference in survival (60±10% vs 46±9%) was not significant (P=0.29). The favourable influence of a short treatment time was further substantiated by demonstrating the importance of the gap between surgery and radiotherapy and the overall treatment time between surgery and end of radiotherapy. Early mucositis progressed more rapidly and was more severe in the accelerated hyperfractionation group; reflecting a faster rate of dose accumulation. Xerostomia was experienced by all patients with a tendency to be more severe after accelerated hyperfractionation. Fibrosis and oedema also tended to be more frequent after accelerated hyperfractionation and probably represent consequential reactions. Tpot showed a correlation with disease-free survival in a univariate analysis but did not prove to be an independent factor. Moreover, the use of the minimum and corrected P-values did not identify a significant cut-off. Compared to conventional fractionation, accelerated hyperfractionation did not seem to offer a survival advantage in fast tumours though a better local control rate was noted. This limits the use of Tpot as a guide for selecting patients for accelerated hyperfractionation. For slowly growing tumours, tumour control and survival probabilities were not significantly different in the conventional fractionation and accelerated hyperfractionation groups. A rapid tumour growth was associated with a higher risk of distant metastases (P=0.01). In conclusion, tumour cell repopulation seems to be an important determinant of postoperative radiotherapy of locally advanced head and neck cancer despite lack of a definite association between Tpot and treatment outcome. In fast growing tumours accelerated hyperfractionation provided an improved local control but without a survival advantage. To gain a full benefit from treatment acceleration, the surgery-radiotherapy gap and the overall treatment time should not exceed 6 and 10 weeks respectively

EFFECTS OF STATIC STRETCHING ON MAXIMAL ISOKINETIC TORQUE

The effects of 20 seconds of agonist (AGO), antagonist (ANT) or no (NO) pre-exercise stretch on concentric (CON) and eccentric (ECC) maximal isokinetic torque produced at the knee were examined. Twelve male semi-pro rugby players performed dominant isokinetic knee extension following the specified stretch protocol. One-way Repeated Measures ANOVA revealed AGO to be significantly less (p < 0.05) than the other protocols for both CON (270 28 Nm) and ECC (309 42 Nm) torque. There was no difference between the ANT or NO for either CON (303 35 Nm and 304 38 Nm, respectively) or ECC (341 40 Nm and 33644 Nm). The results support the theory that pre-exercise agonist stretching may lead to performance decrements in maximal concentric torque production