55 research outputs found

    Parameter Instability and Forecasting Performance. A Monte Carlo Study

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    This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to assess the loss in terms of forecast accuracy which is incurred when the true DGP exhibits parameter instability which is either overlooked or incorrectly modelled. We find that the loss is considerable when a FCM is estimated instead of the true TVCM, this loss being an increasing function of the degree of persistence and of the variance of the process driving the slope coefficient. A loss is also incurred when a TVCM different from the correct one is specified, the resulting forecasts being even less accurate than those of a FCM. However, the loss can be minimised by selecting a TVCM which, although incorrect, nests the true one, more specifically an AR(1) model with a constant. Finally, there is hardly any loss resulting from using a TVCM when the underlying DGP is characterised by fixed coefficients.Fixed coefficient model, Time varying parameter models, Forecasting

    Effect of religiosity/spirituality and sense of coherence on depression within a rural population in Greece: the Spili III project

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    Background: Recent research has addressed the hypothesis that religiosity/spirituality and sense of coherence buffer the negative effects of stress on numerous health issues. The aim of the current study was to further this work by exploring potential links between psycho-social factors such as religiosity/ spirituality and sense of coherence with depression. Methods: A total of 220 subjects of the SPILI III cohort (1988-2012) attending a primary care setting in the town of Spili on rural Crete represented the target group. All participants underwent a standardized procedure. Validated questionnaires were used to evaluate sense of coherence, depression levels and religious and spiritual beliefs. A multiple linear regression analysis of the Beck Depression Inventory Scale (BDI) in relation to demographic characteristics, scores on the Royal Free Interview for Spiritual and Religious Beliefs scale (RFI-SRB) and Sense of Coherence scale (SOC) was used. Results: A significant inverse association was found between BDI and RFI-SRB scale (B-coef=-0.6999, p<0.001), as well as among BDI and SOC scale (B-coef=-0.556, p<0.001). Conclusions: The findings of the current observational study indicate that highly religious participants are less likely to score high in the depression scale. Furthermore, participants with high SOC scored significantly low in the BDI scale. Further research is required in order to explore the potential effect of SOC and religiosity/spirituality in mental health

    Effect of religiosity/spirituality and sense of coherence on depression within a rural population in Greece: the Spili III project

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    Background: Recent research has addressed the hypothesis that religiosity/spirituality and sense of coherence buffer the negative effects of stress on numerous health issues. The aim of the current study was to further this work by exploring potential links between psycho-social factors such as religiosity/ spirituality and sense of coherence with depression. Methods: A total of 220 subjects of the SPILI III cohort (1988-2012) attending a primary care setting in the town of Spili on rural Crete represented the target group. All participants underwent a standardized procedure. Validated questionnaires were used to evaluate sense of coherence, depression levels and religious and spiritual beliefs. A multiple linear regression analysis of the Beck Depression Inventory Scale (BDI) in relation to demographic characteristics, scores on the Royal Free Interview for Spiritual and Religious Beliefs scale (RFI-SRB) and Sense of Coherence scale (SOC) was used. Results: A significant inverse association was found between BDI and RFI-SRB scale (B-coef=-0.6999, p<0.001), as well as among BDI and SOC scale (B-coef=-0.556, p<0.001). Conclusions: The findings of the current observational study indicate that highly religious participants are less likely to score high in the depression scale. Furthermore, participants with high SOC scored significantly low in the BDI scale. Further research is required in order to explore the potential effect of SOC and religiosity/spirituality in mental health

    Bio-psychosocial determinants of cardiovascular disease in a rural population on Crete, Greece: formulating a hypothesis and designing the SPILI-III study

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    Background: In 1988, the SPILI project was established in order to evaluate the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile of the inhabitants of Spili, in rural Crete, Greece. The first reports from this project revealed that against the unfavourable risk factors’ profile observed, only a few men with a previous myocardial infarction were encountered. A follow-up study (SPILI II) was performed twelve years after the initial examination, and the unfavourable cardiovascular risk profile was re-confirmed. Presentation of the Hypothesis: This paper presents a hypothesis formulated on the basis of previous research to investigate if dynamic psycho-social determinants, including social coherence of the local community, religiosity and spirituality, are protective against the development of coronary heart disease in a well-defined population. Testing the Hypothesis: A follow-up examination of this Cretan cohort is currently being performed to assess the link between psychosocial factors and CVD. Psychosocial factors including sense of control, religiosity and spirituality are assessed in together with conventional CVD risk factors. Smoking and alcohol consumption, as well as dietary habits and activity levels are recorded. Oxidative stress and inflammatory markers, as well as ultrasound measurement of carotid intima media thickness, a preclinical marker of atherosclerosis, will also be measured. Implications of the hypothesis tested: The issue of the cardio-protective effect of psycho-social factors would be revisited based on the results of this Cretan cohort; nevertheless, further research is needed across different subpopulations in order to establish a definite relationship. A comprehensive approach based on the aspects of biosocial life may result in more accurate CVD risk management

    Drying-mediated patterns in colloid-polymer suspensions

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    Drying-mediated patterning of colloidal particles is a physical phenomenon that must be understood in inkjet printing technology to obtain crack-free uniform colloidal films. Here we experimentally study the drying-mediated patterns of a model colloid-polymer suspension and specifically observe how the deposit pattern appears after droplet evaporation by varying particle size and polymer concentration. We find that at a high polymer concentration, the ring-like pattern appears in suspensions with large colloids, contrary to suppression of ring formation in suspensions with small colloids thanks to colloidpolymer interactions. We attribute this unexpected reversal behavior to hydrodynamics and size dependence of colloid-polymer interactions. This finding would be very useful in developing control of drying-mediated self-assembly to produce crack-free uniform patterns from colloidal fluids.ope

    Prospective Observational Study on acute Appendicitis Worldwide (POSAW)

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    Background: Acute appendicitis (AA) is the most common surgical disease, and appendectomy is the treatment of choice in the majority of cases. A correct diagnosis is key for decreasing the negative appendectomy rate. The management can become difficult in case of complicated appendicitis. The aim of this study is to describe the worldwide clinical and diagnostic work-up and management of AA in surgical departments.Methods: This prospective multicenter observational study was performed in 116 worldwide surgical departments from 44 countries over a 6-month period (April 1, 2016-September 30, 2016). All consecutive patients admitted to surgical departments with a clinical diagnosis of AA were included in the study.Results: A total of 4282 patients were enrolled in the POSAW study, 1928 (45%) women and 2354 (55%) men, with a median age of 29 years. Nine hundred and seven (21.2%) patients underwent an abdominal CT scan, 1856 (43.3%) patients an US, and 285 (6.7%) patients both CT scan and US. A total of 4097 (95.7%) patients underwent surgery; 1809 (42.2%) underwent open appendectomy and 2215 (51.7%) had laparoscopic appendectomy. One hundred eighty-five (4.3%) patients were managed conservatively. Major complications occurred in 199 patients (4.6%). The overall mortality rate was 0.28%.Conclusions: The results of the present study confirm the clinical value of imaging techniques and prognostic scores. Appendectomy remains the most effective treatment of acute appendicitis. Mortality rate is low.</p

    Prospective Observational Study on acute Appendicitis Worldwide (POSAW)

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    Acute appendicitis (AA) is the most common surgical disease, and appendectomy is the treatment of choice in the majority of cases. A correct diagnosis is key for decreasing the negative appendectomy rate. The management can become difficult in case of complicated appendicitis. The aim of this study is to describe the worldwide clinical and diagnostic work-up and management of AA in surgical departments.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Physiological parameters for Prognosis in Abdominal Sepsis (PIPAS) Study : a WSES observational study

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    BackgroundTiming and adequacy of peritoneal source control are the most important pillars in the management of patients with acute peritonitis. Therefore, early prognostic evaluation of acute peritonitis is paramount to assess the severity and establish a prompt and appropriate treatment. The objectives of this study were to identify clinical and laboratory predictors for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute peritonitis and to develop a warning score system, based on easily recognizable and assessable variables, globally accepted.MethodsThis worldwide multicentre observational study included 153 surgical departments across 56 countries over a 4-month study period between February 1, 2018, and May 31, 2018.ResultsA total of 3137 patients were included, with 1815 (57.9%) men and 1322 (42.1%) women, with a median age of 47years (interquartile range [IQR] 28-66). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 8.9%, with a median length of stay of 6days (IQR 4-10). Using multivariable logistic regression, independent variables associated with in-hospital mortality were identified: age > 80years, malignancy, severe cardiovascular disease, severe chronic kidney disease, respiratory rate >= 22 breaths/min, systolic blood pressure 4mmol/l. These variables were used to create the PIPAS Severity Score, a bedside early warning score for patients with acute peritonitis. The overall mortality was 2.9% for patients who had scores of 0-1, 22.7% for those who had scores of 2-3, 46.8% for those who had scores of 4-5, and 86.7% for those who have scores of 7-8.ConclusionsThe simple PIPAS Severity Score can be used on a global level and can help clinicians to identify patients at high risk for treatment failure and mortality.Peer reviewe
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