Extensions to the Regression Discontinuity Design with Applications in Biostatistics

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a method for estimating a treatment effect in an observational study where there is a treatment allocation guideline that can be linked to the value of a continuous assignment variable and a pre-determined threshold. Typically, treatment is offered to patients whose assignment variable values lie above (or below) the threshold. Patients whose assignment variable values lie close to the threshold can be seen as exchangeable and typically, treatment effect estimation in an RD design involves comparing patients above and below the threshold. For a continuous outcome, estimating a treatment effect usually entails fitting local linear regression models for patients above and below the threshold. We propose the use of the thin plate regression spline to fit flexible regression models for patients above and below the threshold. Limited research has been done on an RD design for binary and time-to-event outcomes. For the binary outcome, we focused on the estimation of the risk ratio. The Wald and multiplicative structural mean models are approaches for estimating the risk ratio that can be applied to an RD design, however, they require additional assumptions. In this thesis, we have proposed an alternative approach for the estimation of the risk ratio that is based on the assumptions of the RD design. For the time-to-event outcome, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was considered because it has some desirable properties in terms of interpreting causal effects. We propose an estimator of the acceleration factor that is based on the assumptions of an RD design. In addition to this, the structural AFT, a common approach for estimating the acceleration factor in observation studies, was discussed. Simulation studies were carried out to compare the proposed approaches with the existing ones, the results show that the proposed approaches compete favourably with, and in some cases, perform better than the existing methods. In addition, we have provided Bayesian alternatives to the three proposed approaches. Finally, we demonstrated these methods by applying them to real datasets on statin and metformin prescriptions

Regression discontinuity designs for time-to-event outcomes: An approach using accelerated failure time models

Regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) have been developed for the estimation of treatment effects using observational data, where a treatment is administered using an externally defined decision rule, linked to a continuous assignment variable. Typically, RDDs have been applied to situations where the outcome of interest is continuous and non-temporal. Conversely, RDDs for time-to-event outcomes have received less attention, despite such outcomes being common in many applications. We explore RDDs for a time-to-event outcome subject to right censoring. An accelerated failure time (AFT) approach is used to establish a treatment effect estimate for a fuzzy RDD (where treatment is not always strictly applied according to the decision rule). This estimation approach is robust to different levels of fuzziness and unobserved confounding, assessed using simulation studies and compares favourably to established structural AFT models. A motivating example is presented in which models are fitted to estimate the effect of metformin on mortality and cardiovascular disease rate using real observational data from UK Primary Care

LiGHT trial: 6-year results of primary selective laser trabeculoplasty versus eye drops for the treatment of glaucoma and ocular hypertension

PURPOSE: The LiGHT trial has shown selective laser trabeculoplasty (SLT) to be clinically and cost-effective as a primary treatment of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) and ocular hypertension (OHT) at 3 years. This paper reports health-related quality of life (HRQL) and clinical effectiveness of initial treatment with SLT compared to intra-ocular pressure (IOP) lowering eye drops, after 6 years of treatment. DESIGN: Prospective multicentre randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: Treatment-naïve eyes with OAG or OHT, initially treated with SLT or IOP-lowering drops. METHODS: Patients were randomly allocated to initial SLT or eye drops. Eye specific target IOP and monitoring intervals were based on international guidelines. After the initial 3 years of the trial, patients in the SLT arm were permitted a 3rd SLT if necessary; patients in the drops arm were allowed SLT as a treatment switch or escalation. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered at controlled-trials.com (ISRCTN32038223). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was HRQL at 6 years; secondary outcomes were clinical effectiveness and safety. RESULTS: Of the 692 patients completing 3 years in the LiGHT trial, 633 (91.5%) entered the extension and 524 patients completed 6 years in the trial (82.8% of those entering the extension phase, 73% of those initially randomised). At 6 years, there were no significant differences in HRQL for EQ-5D, GUI and GQL-15 (all p>0.05). The SLT arm had better GSS scores than the drops arm (83.6 (SD 18.1) vs 81.3 (SD 17.3), respectively). 69.8% of eyes in the SLT arm remained at or below target IOP without the need for medical or surgical treatment. More eyes in the drops arm exhibited disease progression (26.8% vs 19.6%, respectively, p=0.006). Trabeculectomy was required in 32 eyes in the drops arm compared to 13 eyes in the SLT arm (p<0.001); there were more cataract surgeries in the drops arm (95 compared to 57 eyes, p=0.03). There were no serious laser-related adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: SLT is a safe treatment for OAG and OHT, providing better long-term disease control than initial drop therapy, with reduced need for incisional glaucoma and cataract surgery over 6 years

Safety and Efficacy of Liraglutide, 3.0 mg, Once Daily vs Placebo in Patients With Poor Weight Loss Following Metabolic Surgery: The BARI-OPTIMISE Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Metabolic surgery leads to weight loss and improved health, but these outcomes are highly variable. Poor weight loss is associated with lower circulating levels of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy and safety of the GLP-1 receptor agonist, liraglutide, 3.0 mg, on percentage body weight reduction in patients with poor weight loss and suboptimal GLP-1 response after metabolic surgery. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Evaluation of Liraglutide 3.0 mg in Patients With Poor Weight Loss and a Suboptimal Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Response (BARI-OPTIMISE) randomized placebo-controlled trial recruited adult patients at least 1 year after metabolic surgery who had experienced 20% or less body weight loss from the day of surgery and a suboptimal nutrient-stimulated GLP-1 response from 2 hospitals in London, United Kingdom, between October 2018 and November 2019. Key exclusion criteria were type 1 diabetes; severe concomitant psychiatric, gastrointestinal, cardiac, kidney or metabolic disease; and use of insulin, GLP-1 receptor analogues, and medication that can affect weight. The study period was 24 weeks followed by a 4-week follow-up period. Last participant follow-up was completed in June 2020. All participants and clinical study personnel were blinded to treatment allocation. Of 154 assessed for eligibility, 70 met trial criteria and were included in the study, and 57 completed follow-up. INTERVENTIONS: Liraglutide, 3.0 mg, once daily or placebo as an adjunct to lifestyle intervention with a 500-kcal daily energy deficit for 24 weeks, on a 1:1 allocation by computer-generated randomization sequence, stratified by surgery type (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass [RYGB] or sleeve gastrectomy [SG]) and type 2 diabetes status. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was change in percentage body weight from baseline to the end of the 24-week study period based on an intention-to-treat analysis. Participant safety was assessed through monitoring of biochemical parameters, including kidney and liver function, physical examination, and assessment for adverse events. RESULTS: A total of 70 participants (mean [SD] age, 47.6 [10.7] years; 52 [74%] female) with a poor weight loss response following RYGB or SG were randomized to receive 3.0-mg liraglutide (n = 35) or placebo (n = 35). All participants received at least 1 dose of the trial drug. Eight participants discontinued treatment (4 per group), and 2 in the 3.0-mg liraglutide group and 1 in the placebo group were lost to follow-up. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, 3 participants in the 3.0-mg liraglutide group and 7 in the placebo group were unable to attend their final in-person assessment. Estimated change in mean (SD) percentage body weight from baseline to week 24 was -8.82 (4.94) with liraglutide, 3.0 mg (n = 31), vs -0.54 (3.32) with placebo (n = 26). The mean difference in percentage body weight change for liraglutide, 3.0 mg, vs placebo was -8.03 (95% CI, -10.39 to -5.66; P < .001). Adverse events, predominantly gastrointestinal, were more frequent with liraglutide, 3.0 mg (28 events [80%]), than placebo (20 events [57%]). There were no serious adverse events and no treatment-related deaths. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: These findings support the use of adjuvant liraglutide, 3.0 mg, for weight management in patients with poor weight loss and suboptimal GLP-1 response after metabolic surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03341429

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of DREAMS START (Dementia RElAted Manual for Sleep; STrAtegies for RelaTives) for people living with dementia and their carers: a study protocol for a parallel multicentre randomised controlled trial

Introduction: Many people living with dementia experience sleep disturbance and there are no known effective treatments. Non-pharmacological treatment options should be the first-line sleep management. For family carers, relatives’ sleep disturbance leads to interruption of their sleep, low mood and breakdown of care. Our team developed and delivered DREAMS START (Dementia RElAted Manual for Sleep; STrAtegies for RelaTives), a multimodal non-pharmacological intervention, showing it to be feasible and acceptable. The aim of this randomised controlled trial is to establish whether DREAMS START is clinically cost-effective in reducing sleep disturbances in people living with dementia living at home compared with usual care. // Methods and analysis: We will recruit 370 participant dyads (people living with dementia and family carers) from memory services, community mental health teams and the Join Dementia Research Website in England. Those meeting inclusion criteria will be randomised (1:1) either to DREAMS START or to usual treatment. DREAMS START is a six-session (1 hour/session), manualised intervention delivered every 1–2 weeks by supervised, non-clinically trained graduates. Outcomes will be collected at baseline, 4 months and 8 months with the primary outcome being the Sleep Disorders Inventory score at 8 months. Secondary outcomes for the person with dementia (all proxy) include quality of life, daytime sleepiness, neuropsychiatric symptoms and cost-effectiveness. Secondary outcomes for the family carer include quality of life, sleep disturbance, mood, burden and service use and caring/work activity. Analyses will be intention-to-treat and we will conduct a process evaluation. // Ethics and dissemination: London—Camden & Kings Cross Ethics Committee (20/LO/0894) approved the study. We will disseminate our findings in high-impact peer-reviewed journals and at national and international conferences. This research has the potential to improve sleep and quality of life for people living with dementia and their carers, in a feasible and scalable intervention. // Trial registration number: ISRCTN13072268

Effects of a high-dose 24-h infusion of tranexamic acid on death and thromboembolic events in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (HALT-IT): an international randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Tranexamic acid reduces surgical bleeding and reduces death due to bleeding in patients with trauma. Meta-analyses of small trials show that tranexamic acid might decrease deaths from gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to assess the effects of tranexamic acid in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods: We did an international, multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 164 hospitals in 15 countries. Patients were enrolled if the responsible clinician was uncertain whether to use tranexamic acid, were aged above the minimum age considered an adult in their country (either aged 16 years and older or aged 18 years and older), and had significant (defined as at risk of bleeding to death) upper or lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients were randomly assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Patients received either a loading dose of 1 g tranexamic acid, which was added to 100 mL infusion bag of 0·9% sodium chloride and infused by slow intravenous injection over 10 min, followed by a maintenance dose of 3 g tranexamic acid added to 1 L of any isotonic intravenous solution and infused at 125 mg/h for 24 h, or placebo (sodium chloride 0·9%). Patients, caregivers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. The primary outcome was death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation; analysis excluded patients who received neither dose of the allocated treatment and those for whom outcome data on death were unavailable. This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN11225767, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01658124. Findings: Between July 4, 2013, and June 21, 2019, we randomly allocated 12 009 patients to receive tranexamic acid (5994, 49·9%) or matching placebo (6015, 50·1%), of whom 11 952 (99·5%) received the first dose of the allocated treatment. Death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation occurred in 222 (4%) of 5956 patients in the tranexamic acid group and in 226 (4%) of 5981 patients in the placebo group (risk ratio [RR] 0·99, 95% CI 0·82–1·18). Arterial thromboembolic events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were similar in the tranexamic acid group and placebo group (42 [0·7%] of 5952 vs 46 [0·8%] of 5977; 0·92; 0·60 to 1·39). Venous thromboembolic events (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) were higher in tranexamic acid group than in the placebo group (48 [0·8%] of 5952 vs 26 [0·4%] of 5977; RR 1·85; 95% CI 1·15 to 2·98). Interpretation: We found that tranexamic acid did not reduce death from gastrointestinal bleeding. On the basis of our results, tranexamic acid should not be used for the treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding outside the context of a randomised trial

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Effects of a high-dose 24-h infusion of tranexamic acid on death and thromboembolic events in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (HALT-IT): an international randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BackgroundTranexamic acid reduces surgical bleeding and reduces death due to bleeding in patients with trauma. Meta-analyses of small trials show that tranexamic acid might decrease deaths from gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to assess the effects of tranexamic acid in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding.MethodsWe did an international, multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 164 hospitals in 15 countries. Patients were enrolled if the responsible clinician was uncertain whether to use tranexamic acid, were aged above the minimum age considered an adult in their country (either aged 16 years and older or aged 18 years and older), and had significant (defined as at risk of bleeding to death) upper or lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients were randomly assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Patients received either a loading dose of 1 g tranexamic acid, which was added to 100 mL infusion bag of 0·9% sodium chloride and infused by slow intravenous injection over 10 min, followed by a maintenance dose of 3 g tranexamic acid added to 1 L of any isotonic intravenous solution and infused at 125 mg/h for 24 h, or placebo (sodium chloride 0·9%). Patients, caregivers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. The primary outcome was death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation; analysis excluded patients who received neither dose of the allocated treatment and those for whom outcome data on death were unavailable. This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN11225767, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01658124.FindingsBetween July 4, 2013, and June 21, 2019, we randomly allocated 12 009 patients to receive tranexamic acid (5994, 49·9%) or matching placebo (6015, 50·1%), of whom 11 952 (99·5%) received the first dose of the allocated treatment. Death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation occurred in 222 (4%) of 5956 patients in the tranexamic acid group and in 226 (4%) of 5981 patients in the placebo group (risk ratio [RR] 0·99, 95% CI 0·82–1·18). Arterial thromboembolic events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were similar in the tranexamic acid group and placebo group (42 [0·7%] of 5952 vs 46 [0·8%] of 5977; 0·92; 0·60 to 1·39). Venous thromboembolic events (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) were higher in tranexamic acid group than in the placebo group (48 [0·8%] of 5952 vs 26 [0·4%] of 5977; RR 1·85; 95% CI 1·15 to 2·98).InterpretationWe found that tranexamic acid did not reduce death from gastrointestinal bleeding. On the basis of our results, tranexamic acid should not be used for the treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding outside the context of a randomised trial.</div