Spatial Distribution of Human Schistosoma japonicum Infections in the Dongting Lake Region, China

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to spatially model the effect of demographic, reservoir hosts and environmental factors on human Schistosoma japonicum infection prevalence in the Dongting Lake area of Hunan Province, China and to determine the potential of each indicator in targeting schistosomiasis control. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Cross-sectional serological, coprological and demographic data were obtained from the 2004 nationwide periodic epidemiologic survey for Hunan Province. Environmental data were downloaded from the USGS EROS data centre. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed for spatial analysis of the infection prevalence among study participants. A total of 47,139 participants from 47 administrative villages were selected. Age, sex and occupation of residents and the presence of infected buffaloes and environmental factors, i.e. NDVI, distance to the lake and endemic type of setting, were significantly associated with S. japonicum infection prevalence. After taking into account spatial correlation, however, only demographic factors (age, sex and occupation) and the presence of infected buffaloes remained significant indicators. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Long established demographic factors, as well presence of host reservoirs rather than environmental factors are driving human transmission. Findings of this work can be used for epidemiologic surveillance and for the future planning of interventions in the Dongting Lake area of Hunan Province

Computational framework for longevity risk management

Longevity risk threatens the financial stability of private and government sponsored defined benefit pension systems as well as social security schemes, in an environment already characterized by persistent low interest rates and heightened financial uncertainty. The mortality experience of countries in the industrialized world would suggest a substantial age-time interaction, with the two dominant trends affecting different age groups at different times. From a statistical point of view, this indicates a dependence structure. It is observed that mortality improvements are similar for individuals of contiguous ages (Wills and Sherris, Integrating financial and demographic longevity risk models: an Australian model for financial applications, Discussion Paper PI-0817, 2008). Moreover, considering the dataset by single ages, the correlations between the residuals for adjacent age groups tend to be high (as noted in Denton et al., J Population Econ 18:203-227, 2005). This suggests that there is value in exploring the dependence structure, also across time, in other words the inter-period correlation. In this research, we focus on the projections of mortality rates, contravening the most commonly encountered dependence property which is the "lack of dependence" (Denuit et al., Actuarial theory for dependent risks: measures. Orders and models, Wiley, New York, 2005). By taking into account the presence of dependence across age and time which leads to systematic over-estimation or under-estimation of uncertainty in the estimates (Liu and Braun, J Probability Stat, 813583:15, 2010), the paper analyzes a tailor-made bootstrap methodology for capturing the spatial dependence in deriving confidence intervals for mortality projection rates. We propose a method which leads to a prudent measure of longevity risk, avoiding the structural incompleteness of the ordinary simulation bootstrap methodology which involves the assumption of independence

New approaches to measuring anthelminthic drug efficacy: parasitological responses of childhood schistosome infections to treatment with praziquantel

By 2020, the global health community aims to control and eliminate human helminthiases, including schistosomiasis in selected African countries, principally by preventive chemotherapy (PCT) through mass drug administration (MDA) of anthelminthics. Quantitative monitoring of anthelminthic responses is crucial for promptly detecting changes in efficacy, potentially indicative of emerging drug resistance. Statistical models offer a powerful means to delineate and compare efficacy among individuals, among groups of individuals and among populations.; We illustrate a variety of statistical frameworks that offer different levels of inference by analysing data from nine previous studies on egg counts collected from African children before and after administration of praziquantel.; We quantify responses to praziquantel as egg reduction rates (ERRs), using different frameworks to estimate ERRs among population strata, as average responses, and within strata, as individual responses. We compare our model-based average ERRs to corresponding model-free estimates, using as reference the World Health Organization (WHO) 90 % threshold of optimal efficacy. We estimate distributions of individual responses and summarize the variation among these responses as the fraction of ERRs falling below the WHO threshold.; Generic models for evaluating responses to anthelminthics deepen our understanding of variation among populations, sub-populations and individuals. We discuss the future application of statistical modelling approaches for monitoring and evaluation of PCT programmes targeting human helminthiases in the context of the WHO 2020 control and elimination goals

Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm

The paper suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in a previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration. Here two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but it is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. The paper provides the questionnaire which was designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian Population from 2010 up to 2065 is proposed

Biodiversity of Fusarium species in Mexico associated with ear rot in maize, and their identification using a phylogenetic approach

Fusariumproliferatum, F. subglutinans, and F. verticillioides are known causes of ear and kernel rot in maize worldwide. In Mexico, only F. verticillioides and F. subglutinans, have been reported previously as causal agents of this disease. However, Fusarium isolates with different morphological characteristics to the species that are known to cause this disease were obtained in the Highland-Valley region of this country from symptomatic and symptomless ears of native and commercial maize genotypes. Moreover, while the morphological studies were not sufficient to identify the correct taxonomic position at the species level, analyses based in the Internal Transcribed Spacer region and the Nuclear Large Subunit Ribosomal partial sequences allowed for the identification of F. subglutinans, F. solani, and F. verticillioides, as well as four species (F. chlamydosporum, F. napiforme, F. poae, and F. pseudonygamai) that had not previously been reported to be associated with ear rot. In addition, F. napiforme and F. solani were absent from symptomless kernels. Phylogenetic analysis showed genetic changes in F. napiforme, and F. pseudonygamai isolates because they were not true clones, and probably constitute separate sibling species. The results of this study suggest that the biodiversity of Fusarium species involved in ear rot in Mexico is greater than that reported previously in other places in the world. This new knowledge will permit a better understanding of the relationship between all the species involved in ear rot disease and their relationship with maize

Who settles for less? Subjective dispositions, objective circumstances, and housing satisfaction

In recent years there has been growing interest in individuals’ self-perceptions of their wellbeing on the grounds that these complement well-established objective indicators of welfare. However, individuals’ assessments depend on both objective circumstances and subjective, idiosyncratic dispositions, such as aspirations and expectations. We add to the literature by formulating a modelling strategy that uncovers how these subjective dispositions differ across socio-demographic groups. This is then tested using housing satisfaction data from a large-scale household panel survey from Australia. We find that there are significant differences in the way in which individuals with different characteristics rate the same objective reality. For instance, male, older, migrant, and Indigenous individuals rate equal housing conditions more favourably than female, younger, Australian-born, and non-Indigenous individuals. These findings have important implications for how self-reported housing satisfaction, and wellbeing data in general, are to be used to inform evidence-based policy

Treatment for Schistosoma japonicum, Reduction of Intestinal Parasite Load, and Cognitive Test Score Improvements in School-Aged Children

Parasitic worm infections are associated with cognitive impairment and lower academic achievement for infected relative to uninfected children. However, it is unclear whether curing or reducing worm infection intensity improves child cognitive function. We examined the independent associations between: (i) Schistosoma japonicum infection-free duration, (ii) declines in single helminth species, and (iii) joint declines of ≥2 soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections and improvements in four cognitive tests during18 months of follow-up. Enrolled were schistosome-infected school-aged children among whom coinfection with STH was common. All children were treated for schistosome infection only at enrolment with praziquantel. Children cured or schistosome-free for >12 months scored higher in memory and verbal fluency tests compared to persistently infected children. Likewise, declines of single and polyparasitic STH infections predicted higher scores in three of four tests. We conclude that reducing the intensity of certain helminth species and the frequency of multi-species STH infections may have long-term benefits for affected children's cognitive performance. The rapidity of schistosome re-infection and the ubiquity of concurrent multi-species infection highlight the importance of sustained deworming for both schistosome and STH infections to enhance the learning and educational attainment of children in helminth-endemic settings

Malaria and Helminth Co-infections in School and Preschool Children: A Cross-sectional Study in Magu district, north-Western Tanzania.

Malaria, schistosomiasis and soil transmitted helminth infections (STH) are important parasitic infections in Sub-Saharan Africa where a significant proportion of people are exposed to co-infections of more than one parasite. In Tanzania, these infections are a major public health problem particularly in school and pre-school children. The current study investigated malaria and helminth co-infections and anaemia in school and pre-school children in Magu district, Tanzania. School and pre-school children were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Stool samples were examined for Schistosoma mansoni and STH infections using Kato Katz technique. Urine samples were examined for Schistosoma haematobium using the urine filtration method. Blood samples were examined for malaria parasites and haemoglobin concentrations using the Giemsa stain and Haemoque methods, respectively. Out of 1,546 children examined, 1,079 (69.8%) were infected with one or more parasites. Malaria-helminth co-infections were observed in 276 children (60% of all children with P. falciparum infection). Malaria parasites were significantly more prevalent in hookworm infected children than in hookworm free children (p = 0.046). However, this association was non-significant on multivariate logistic regression analysis (OR = 1.320, p = 0.064). Malaria parasite density decreased with increasing infection intensity of S. mansoni and with increasing number of co-infecting helminth species. Anaemia prevalence was 34.4% and was significantly associated with malaria infection, S. haematobium infection and with multiple parasite infections. Whereas S. mansoni infection was a significant predictor of malaria parasite density, P. falciparum and S. haematobium infections were significant predictors of anaemia. These findings suggest that multiple parasite infections are common in school and pre-school children in Magu district. Concurrent P. falciparum, S. mansoni and S. haematobium infections increase the risk of lower Hb levels and anaemia, which in turn calls for integrated disease control interventions. The associations between malaria and helminth infections detected in this study need further investigation