ЦИВИЛИЗАЦИОННЫЕ СЦЕНАРИИ РАЗВИТИЯ РОССИИ

In the modern world plays an important role civilization factor. In this connection before Russia a task stands forming of civilization identity. A problem consists in that, that exists a few scenarios of civilization development. To their consideration and this article is devoted.В современном мире важную роль играет цивилизационный фактор. В связи с этим перед Россией стоит задача формирования цивилизационной идентичности. Проблема заключается в том, что существует несколько сценариев цивилизационного развития. Их рассмотрению и посвящена данная статья

Statistical Diagnostics of Metastatic Involvement of Regional Lymph Nodes

The method of statistical classification with indicating patients that require more detailed diagnostics is proposed and analysed

USING HEAT PUMPS

В настоящее время, с возросшей популярностью возобновляемых источников энергии, исследуются различные способы использования тепловых насосов в ряде стран. В статье рассмотрены различные статистические данные использования тепловых насосов в мире.Currently, with the increasing popularity of renewable energy sources, various ways of using heat pumps in several countries are being investigated. The article discusses various statistics on the use of heat pumps in the world

Электрофизиологическое ремоделирование правого желудочка при экспериментальной сердечной недостаточности различной этиологии

The aim of the study was to evaluate electrophysiological remodeling of the right ventricle in rats in experimental heart failure of different etiologies. Materials and methods. Isadrin-, doxorubicin- and monocrotaline-induced heart failure models were developed. Unipolar epicardial electrograms of the ventricles (256 recording sites) were recorded using a 144-channel system. The cardiac output and pressure in both ventricles of the heart were measured. Activation-recovery intervals were used as an index of duration of local repolarization, and the general and local dispersions of activation-recovery intervals were used as an index of heterogeneity of ventricular repolarization. Results. In all models of heart failure, the following were identified: 1) non-uniform prolongation of repolarization with the greatest elongation at the apex of the right ventricle; 2) an increase in apicobasal differences of repolarization with the greatest change in the right ventricle; 3) an increase in the heterogeneity of the repolarization of the epicardial layer of the ventricles with heterogeneous changes in the local heterogeneity of repolarization and a decrease in the interregional differences in the heterogeneity of the electrophysiological properties of the myocardium; 4) more pronounced changes in the repolarization of the right ventricle than in the repolarization of the left ventricle. Conclusion. Thus, irrespective of the cause of the heart failure, the following changes occur: 1) prolongation of the right ventricular repolarization occurs non-uniformly (mostly due to the apical area), which results in an increase in the right ventricular repolarization heterogeneity; 2) an increase in the heterogeneity of right ventricular repolarization is observed, which causes an increase in the overall heterogeneity of the ventricular epicardial surface. Целью работы явилась оценка электрофизиологического ремоделирования правого желудочка крыс с экспериментальной сердечной недостаточностью различной этиологии.Материалы и методы. Проводили экспериментальное моделирование изадрин-, доксорубицин- и монокроталин-индуцированной сердечной недостаточности. Униполярные эпикардиальные электрограммы желудочков (256 точек регистрации) регистрировали с помощью 144-канальной системы. Измеряли сердечный выброс и давление в обоих желудочках сердца. Вычисляли интервалы «активация – восстановление» как показатель длительности локальной реполяризации, а также определяли общую и локальную дисперсию интервалов «активация – восстановление» для оценки гетерогенности реполяризации желудочков. Результаты. Во всех моделях сердечной недостаточности выявлены: 1) неоднородная пролонгация реполяризации с наибольшим удлинением на верхушке правого желудочка; 2) увеличение апикобазальных различий реполяризации с наибольшим изменением на правом желудочке; 3) увеличение гетерогенности реполяризации эпикардиального слоя желудочков при неоднородных изменениях локальной гетерогенности реполяризации и уменьшение межрегиональных различий неоднородности электрофизиологических свойств миокарда; 4) более выраженные изменения в реполяризации правого желудочка, чем в реполяризации левого желудочка. Заключение. Независимо от причины развития сердечной недостаточности происходит неравномерное увеличение длительности реполяризации эпикардиальной поверхности (в большей степени за счет верхушки) и наблюдается усиление гетерогенности реполяризации правого желудочка, что является причиной роста общей гетерогенности реполяризации эпикардиальной поверхности желудочков в целом

Requirements for a global data infrastructure in support of CMIP6

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)’s Working Group on Climate Modelling (WGCM) Infrastructure Panel (WIP) was formed in 2014 in response to the explosive growth in size and complexity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) between CMIP3 (2005–2006) and CMIP5 (2011–2012). This article presents the WIP recommendations for the global data infrastruc- ture needed to support CMIP design, future growth, and evolution. Developed in close coordination with those who build and run the existing infrastructure (the Earth System Grid Federation; ESGF), the recommendations are based on several principles beginning with the need to separate requirements, implementation, and operations. Other im- portant principles include the consideration of the diversity of community needs around data – a data ecosystem – the importance of provenance, the need for automation, and the obligation to measure costs and benefits. This paper concentrates on requirements, recognizing the diversity of communities involved (modelers, analysts, soft- ware developers, and downstream users). Such requirements include the need for scientific reproducibility and account- ability alongside the need to record and track data usage. One key element is to generate a dataset-centric rather than system-centric focus, with an aim to making the infrastruc- ture less prone to systemic failure. With these overarching principles and requirements, the WIP has produced a set of position papers, which are summa- rized in the latter pages of this document. They provide spec- ifications for managing and delivering model output, includ- ing strategies for replication and versioning, licensing, data quality assurance, citation, long-term archiving, and dataset tracking. They also describe a new and more formal approach for specifying what data, and associated metadata, should be saved, which enables future data volumes to be estimated, particularly for well-defined projects such as CMIP6. The paper concludes with a future facing consideration of the global data infrastructure evolution that follows from the blurring of boundaries between climate and weather, and the changing nature of published scientific results in the digital age

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design

Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (&gt;  50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario. </jats:p

Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as −9 °C, compared to −14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain–snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1148594)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ROSES Grant 09-IDS09-0049

A novel method to improve temperature simulations of general circulation models based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition and its application to multi-model ensembles

A novel method based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method was developed to improve model performance. This method was evaluated by applying it to global surface air temperatures, which were simulated by eight general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The temperature simulations of the eight models were separated into their different components by EEMD. The model's performance improved after the first high-frequency component was removed from the original simulations by EEMD for each model, on both the global and continental scale. Moreover, EEMD was more effective in improving the model's performance compared to the wavelet transform method. The multi-model ensembles (MMEs) were calculated based on the EEMD-improved model simulations using the Average Ensemble Mean, Multiple Linear Regression, Singular Value Decomposition and Bayesian Model Averaging methods. The results showed that the MME forecasts performed better when the calculations were based on the EEMD-improved simulations as opposed to the original simulations on both the global and continental scale. Therefore, the results of the MME were further improved by using the EEMD-improved model simulations. This new method provides a simple way to improve model performance and can be easily applied to further improve MME simulations

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere--ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring a distinct wet and dry season, it is directly related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. Models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, Phase 5, consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in West Africa, western Mexico and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a general circulation model are associated with excessively peaked monthly precipitation fractions, too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding and following the wet season; negative biases are instead due, in most cases, to an excess of rainfall during the premonsoonal months

Improvements in the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) through systematic model analysis: CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1

The Canadian Earth System Model version 5.0 (CanESM5.0), the most recent major version of the global climate model developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), has been used extensively in climate research and for providing future climate projections in the context of climate services. Previous studies have shown that CanESM5.0 performs well compared to other models and have revealed several model biases. To address these biases, the CCCma has recently initiated the “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity, a coordinated analysis activity in support of CanESM development. Here we describe the goals and organization of this effort and introduce two variants (“p1” and “p2”) of a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features important improvements as a result of the A4D activity. These improvements include the elimination of spurious stratospheric temperature spikes and an improved simulation of tropospheric dust. Other climate aspects of the p1 variant of CanESM5.1 are similar to those of CanESM5.0, while the p2 variant of CanESM5.1 features reduced equilibrium climate sensitivity and improved El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability as a result of intentional tuning of the atmospheric component. The A4D activity has also led to the improved understanding of other notable CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1 biases, including the overestimation of North Atlantic sea ice, a cold bias over sea ice, biases in the stratospheric circulation and a cold bias over the Himalayas. It provides a potential framework for the broader climate community to contribute to CanESM development, which will facilitate further model improvements and ultimately lead to improved climate change information.</p