Resonance induced by repulsive interactions in a model of globally-coupled bistable systems

We show the existence of a competition-induced resonance effect for a generic globally coupled bistable system. In particular, we demonstrate that the response of the macroscopic variable to an external signal is optimal for a particular proportion of repulsive links. Furthermore, we show that a resonance also occurs for other system parameters, like the coupling strength and the number of elements. We relate this resonance to the appearance of a multistable region, and we predict the location of the resonance peaks, by a simple spectral analysis of the Laplacian matrix

Forecasting the underlying potential governing the time series of a dynamical system

Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for ‘potential analysis’ of tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting nonlinear changes including bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis. Although being applied to climatological series in the present paper, the method is very general and can be used to forecast dynamics in time series of any origin.NERCAXA Research FundEuropean Commissio

APPLICATION OF CIRCULAR ECONOMY IN SHRINKING REGIONS

Shrinking of rural regions is going on in Eastern and Western European countries. Shrinking phenomena includes Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and other countries and regions. The shrinking region is considered as untoward and gone territory for economic growth particularly from the perspective of policy makers. Shrinking region requires specific tools for development. The aim of this study is to analyse theoretical options for circular economy development in shrinking regions. The growth economy which requires planning more and more profit, units of goods, jobs etc. is not an adequate strategy for shrinking regions. The desktop approach is applied by analysing research articles on shrinking phenomena and circular economy with aim to explore the potential benefits provided by application of principles of circular economy in shrinking regions. The study also reviews policy planning documents on circular economy and regional development at the European Union level and specifically in Latvia which has lost dramatic proportion of inhabitants in last few decades. The findings of the study show that at first, national policy and EU policy does not accept the phenomena of shrinking regions; second, principles of circular economy are applicable to shrinking regions. There are such challenges as cooperation, philosophy of consumption and values, willingness and availability to pay for services. The study will open a discussion about shrinking rural regions and circular economy from another perspective because until now circular economy is mostly related with the zero waste concept

NATURE PARK AS A RESOURCE FOR NATURE BASED TOURISM

The aim of this comparative article is to show the differences between the visitors' purposes and habits in two national parks: Gauja National Park (GNP) in Latvia and Kasu Bramhananda Reddy National Park (KBR) in Hyderabad, Telangana in India. As well as that, the article aims at highlighting differences in the functional use of the national parks and their locations in the urban and rural context. The study has used the secondary data analysis, such as the analysis and overview of the literature, previously conducted studies and information sources, visitors’ surveys in the national parks, and the exploration of the park areas for the evaluation of tourism infrastructure. The results of the study show distinct differences in the national park functions, target groups and their needs. The main target group in KBR is local inhabitants of the million city, and the national park basically fulfils the function of a city park –it is a green area for passive and active (jogging) leisure rather than a nature tourism offer. GNP has three target groups: the local population for a healthy leisure time, domestic visitors and foreign visitors for nature and cultural purposes. Thus, KBR status as a national park is misleading for the international traveller. In the future research it is planned to compare GNP with a national park in India which is located outside the urban environment, carrying out an in-depth study of visitors’ opinion on the purpose and elements of infrastructure

Dansgaard-Oeschger events: tipping points in the climate system

Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be the more correct for describing the paleoclimatic signal. In this work, we assess the bimodality of the system reconstructing the topology of the multi--dimensional attractor over which the climate system evolves. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We show that Dansgaard-Oeschger events have weak early warning signals if the ensemble of events is considered. We find that the statistics are consistent with the switches between two different climate equilibrium states in response to a changing external forcing (e.g. solar, ice sheets...), either forcing directly the transition or pacing it through stochastic resonance. These findings are most consistent with a model that associates Dansgaard-Oeschger with changing boundary conditions, and with the presence of a bifurcation point.Comment: Final typeset version freely available at: Clim. Past, 9, 323-333, 2013 www.clim-past.net/9/323/2013/ doi:10.5194/cp-9-323-201

CRAFTSMANSHIP PADA TEKTONIKA WARUNG CITARASA

Abstract- Tectonics in architecture is a construction element associated with the material, goals, and builders of a building. It does not stop there, the result of combining abstract thinking (implicit) and the ability to make (explicit). Craftsmanship also talks about how craftsmen think in creating. The study was conducted to understand the role of designers, craftsmen, in craftsmanship to form tectonics and connections that should be able to bring stories and characters in architecture, especially in this modern era.                 Oky Kusprianto (1977-2019) was the principal architect of Studio Apta. Studio Apta's works pay a lot of attention to architectural materials and tectonics. Through tectonics, his work presents liveliness of space in cafes, adventures in stores, and solitude in urban forests. The object taken was Lembang Citarasa Warung, the reason being that it was one of the projects that was experimental on material and was still just being built (2017-2018). The articulation of the expression of the burden between the connections is strong with the appearance of honest elements. Thus what needs to be known is the craftsmanship method used in Warung Citarasa which is related to thinking and making and its adaptation in the modern world which is already relatively different from what was known about previous craftsmanship.                 This study uses a qualitative descriptive method by describing the tectonics that are formed and how they are formed through the craftsmanship process. Data collected through direct observation, literature study and interviews. Tectonics are divided into three based on the main material, namely stone, iron and wood tectonics. The results then become a reference in the identification of craftsmanship in the process of forming the tectonics. The first is based on knowledge (thinking hand) which is subdivided into explicit and implicit knowledge. Then identified again by the skills (working hand) which is divided into analog and digital tools. After that, an analysis of the aspects of collaboration between the development actors responsible for tectonic formation. Finally, the results of the analysis of the three aspects are combined to analyze the craftsmanship process that occurs in each tectonics.                 Tectonics can be classified into three, namely stone, iron and wood. In experimental wood tectonics, there is little knowledge or experience, but most exchanges of knowledge between actors and the use of analog design tools. In contrast, in stone and iron tectonics, there is more explicit knowledge and experience possessed by actors. The effect, design flow and construction are linear. The majority of stone and iron tectonic design processes use digital media, this is in line with the statement that architect craftsmanship in modern times cannot be separated from digital influence. The lack of digital use is rewarded by the collaborative process between designers and builders who have the same goal in forming the tectonics, strong communication skill and tools, shared common knowledge, and the advancement of analog media in translating hand language using painting software with tablets.   Key Words: craftsmanship, architecture, tectonics, warung citarasa lembangAbstrak- Tektonika dalam arsitektur merupakan elemen konstruksi yang terkait dengan material, tujuan, dan pembangun dari suatu bangunan. Tidak berhenti disana, hasil dari penggabungan pemikiran abstrak (implisit/thinking) dan kemampuan membuat (eksplisit/making). Craftsmanship atau ketukangan juga berbicara mengenai bagaimana cara pengrajin berpikir dalam berkarya. Studi dilakukan untuk memahami apa saja peran desainer, tukang, dalam craftsmanship untuk membentuk tektonika dan sambungan yang seharusnya dapat membawa cerita dan karakter dalam arsitektur khususnya pada masa modern ini.                  Oky Kusprianto (1977-2019) adalah arsitek prinsipal Studio Apta. Karya Studio Apta banyak menaruh perhatian terhadap material dan tektonika arsitektur. Melalui tektonika, karyanya menghadirkan liveliness ruang di cafe, petualangan di toko, dan solitude di hutan kota. Objek yang diambil merupakan Warung Citarasa Lembang, alasannya karena merupakan salah satu proyeknya yang eksperimental terhadap material dan masih baru terbangun (2017-2018). Artikulasi ekspresi beban antar sambungannya kuat dengan penampilan elemen yang jujur. Dengan demikian yang perlu diketahui adalah cara craftsmanship yang digunakan di Warung Citarasa yang berhubungan dengan thinking dan making dan adaptasinya di dunia modern ini yang sudah relatif berbeda dengan apa yang diketahui mengenai craftsmanship sebelumnya.                 Studi ini menggunakan metode deskriptif kualitatif dengan cara mendeskripsikan tektonika yang terbentuk dan bagaimana pembentukannya melalui proses ketukangan. Data dikumpulkan melalui observasi langsung, studi pustaka dan wawancara. Tektonika terbagi menjadi tiga berdasarkan material utamanya, yaitu tektonika batu, besi, dan kayu. Hasilnya kemudian menjadi acuan dalam identifikasi ketukangan pada proses pembentukan tektonika tersebut. Pertama berdasarkan pengetahuan (thinking hand) yang terbagi lagi menjadi pengetahuan eksplisit dan implisit. Kemudian diidentifikasi lagi dengan ketrampilan (working hand) yang terbagi menjadi alat analog dan digital. Setelah itu, analisa mengenai aspek kolaborasi antar pelaku pembangun yang bertanggung jawab dalam pembentukan tektonika. Terakhir, hasil analisa ketiga aspek tersebut digabungkan untuk menganalisis proses ketukangan yang terjadi pada masing-masing tektonika.                 Tektonika dapat digolongkan menjadi tiga, yaitu batu, besi, dan kayu. Pada tektonika kayu yang eksperimentatif, pengetahuan atau pengalaman yang dimiliki sedikit, tetapi paling banyak pertukaran pengetahuan antar pelaku dan penggunaan alat desain analog. Sebaliknya, pada tektonika batu dan besi, lebih banyak pengetahuan eksplisit dan pengalaman yang dimiliki pelaku. Pengaruhnya, alur desain dan konstruksinya linear. Proses desain tektonika batu dan besi mayoritas menggunakan media digital, hal ini sejalan dengan pernyataan bahwa craftsmanship arsitek di masa modern tidak dapat lepas dari pengaruh digital. Kekurangan penggunaan digital dibalas dengan adanya proses kolaboratif antar desainer dan pembangun yang memiliki satu tujuan yang sama dalam pembentukan tektonikanya, ketrampilan dan alat komunikasi yang kuat, pengetahuan eksplisit umum yang dimiliki seluruh pelaku, dan kemajuan media analog dalam menerjemahkan bahasa tangan menggunakan software melukis dengan tablet.   Kata Kunci: ketukangan, arsitektur, tektonika, warung citarasa lemban

Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history

We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time$\tau_0$. As a consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time$\hat \tau(\tau_0)$between two events increases monotonically with$\tau_0$. For$\tau_0$well below the average recurrence time$\ov{\tau}, \hat\tau(\tau_0)$is smaller than$\ov{\tau}$, while for$\tau_0>\ov{\tau}$,$\hat\tau(\tau_0)$is greater than$\ov{\tau}$. Also the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not depend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on$\tau_0$. The larger$\tau_0$ is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be taken into account in any earthquake prognosis.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Physica

A novel scaling indicator of early warning signals helps anticipate tropical cyclones

Tipping events in dynamical systems have been studied in many contexts, often modelled by the decay of critical modes, system states which are tending towards bifurcation, characterised by increased return times to stable equilibria. Temporal scaling properties of time series data can be used to detect the presence of a critical mode by estimating the decay rate, and indicators of changes in these properties may therefore be used to provide an early warning signal (EWS) for an impending tipping event. The lag-1 autocorrelation function (ACF(1)) indicator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) indicator have previously been used in such a way; in this paper we introduce a novel scaling indicator based on the decay rate of the power spectrum (PS). We compare the ACF(1), DFA- and PS-indicators using artificial data; data from a model which includes a bifurcation point; and sea-level pressure data along the paths of 14 tropical cyclones. By using the PS-indicator with such data, we show that the new indicator may be used to provide an EWS in a context where the ACF(1)- and DFA-indicators fail