PAHs molecules and heating of the interstellar gas

Until now it has remained difficult to account for the rather high temperatures seen in many diffuse interstellar clouds. Various heating mechanisms have been considered: photoionization of minor species, ionization of H by cosmic rays, and photoelectric effect on small grains. Yet all these processes are either too weak or efficient under too restricting conditions to balance the observed cooling rates. A major heat source is thus still missing in the thermal balance of the diffuse gas. Using photoionization cross sections measured in the lab, it was shown that in order to balance the observed cooling rates in cold diffuse clouds (T approx. 80 K) the PAHs would have to contain 15 percent of the cosmic abundance of carbon. This value does not contradict the former estimation of 6 percent deduced from the IR emission bands since this latter is to be taken as a lower limit. Further, it was estimated that the contribution to the heating rate due to PAH's in a warm HI cloud, assuming the same PAH abundance as for a cold HI cloud, would represent a significant fraction of the value required to keep the medium in thermal balance. Thus, photoionization of PAHs might well be a major heat source for the cold and warm HI media

An enhanced component connection method for conversion of fault trees to binary decision diagrams

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is widely applied to assess the failure probability of industrial systems. Many computer packages are available which are based on conventional Kinetic Tree Theory methods. When dealing with large (possibly non-coherent) fault trees, the limitations of the technique in terms of accuracy of the solutions and the efficiency of the processing time becomes apparent. Over recent years the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) method has been developed that solves fault trees and overcomes the disadvantages of the conventional FTA approach. First of all, a fault tree for a particular system failure mode is constructed and then converted to a BDD for analysis. This paper analyses alternative methods for the fault tree to BDD conversion process. For most fault tree to BDD conversion approaches the basic events of the fault tree are placed in an ordering. This can dramatically affect the size of the final BDD and the success of qualitative and quantitative analyses of the system. A set of rules are then applied to each gate in the fault tree to generate the BDD. An alternative approach can also be used, where BDD constructs for each of the gate types are first built and then merged to represent a parent gate. A powerful and efficient property, sub-node sharing, is also incorporated in the enhanced method proposed in this paper. Finally a combined approach is developed taking the best features of the alternative methods. The efficiency of the techniques is analysed and discussed

Predictive maintenance for the heated hold-up tank

We present a numerical method to compute an optimal maintenance date for the test case of the heated hold-up tank. The system consists of a tank containing a fluid whose level is controlled by three components: two inlet pumps and one outlet valve. A thermal power source heats up the fluid. The failure rates of the components depends on the temperature, the position of the three components monitors the liquid level in the tank and the liquid level determines the temperature. Therefore, this system can be modeled by a hybrid process where the discrete (components) and continuous (level, temperature) parts interact in a closed loop. We model the system by a piecewise deterministic Markov process, propose and implement a numerical method to compute the optimal maintenance date to repair the components before the total failure of the system.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1101.174

Transitions dynamiques -changement des lois d'occurrence a des instants discrets

International audienc

Estimating Probability of Failure of a Complex System Based on Inexact Information about Subsystems and Components, with Potential Applications to Aircraft Maintenance

In many real-life applications (e.g., in aircraft maintenance), we need to estimate the probability of failure of a complex system (such as an aircraft as a whole or one of its subsystems). Complex systems are usually built with redundancy allowing them to withstand the failure of a small number of components. In this paper, we assume that we know the structure of the system, and, as a result, for each possible set of failed components, we can tell whether this set will lead to a system failure. For each component A, we know the probability P(A) of its failure with some uncertainty: e.g., we know the lower and upper bounds P(A) and P(A) for this probability. Usually, it is assumed that failures of different components are independent events. Our objective is to use all this information to estimate the probability of failure of the entire the complex system. In this paper, we describe several methods for solving this problem, including a new efficient method for such estimation based on Cauchy deviates

An efficient phased mission reliability analysis for autonomous vehicles

Autonomous systems are becoming more commonly used, especially in hazardous situations. Such systems are expected to make their own decisions about future actions when some capabilities degrade due to failures of their subsystems. Such decisions are made without human input, therefore they need to be well-informed in a short time when the situation is analysed and future consequences of the failure are estimated. The future planning of the mission should take account of the likelihood of mission failure. The reliability analysis for autonomous systems can be performed using the methodologies developed for phased mission analysis, where the causes of failure for each phase in the mission can be expressed by fault trees. Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles (UAVs) are of a particular interest in the aeronautical industry, where it is a long term ambition to operate them routinely in civil airspace. Safety is the main requirement for the UAV operation and the calculation of failure probability of each phase and the overall mission is the topic of this paper. When components or sub-systems fail or environmental conditions throughout the mission change, these changes can affect the future mission. The new proposed methodology takes into account the available diagnostics data and is used to predict future capabilities of the UAV in real-time. Since this methodology is based on the efficient BDD method, the quickly provided advice can be used in making decisions. When failures occur appropriate actions are required in order to preserve safety of the autonomous vehicle. The overall decision making strategy for autonomous vehicles is explained in this paper. Some limitations of the methodology are discussed and further improvements are presented based on experimental results

System design and maintenance modelling for safety in extended life operation

It is frequently the most cost effective option to operate systems and infrastructure over an extended life period rather than enter a new build programme. The condition and performance of existing systems operated beyond their originally intended design life are controlled through maintenance. For new systems there is the option to simultaneously develop the design and the maintenance processes for best effect when a longer life expectancy is planned. This paper reports a combined Petri net and Bayesian network approach to investigate the effects of design and maintenance features on the system performance. The method has a number of features which overcome limitations in traditionally used system performance modelling techniques, such as fault tree analysis, and also enhances the modelling capabilities. Significantly, for the assessment of aging systems, the new method avoids the need to assume a constant failure rate over the lifetime duration. In addition the assumption of independence between component failures events is no longer required. In comparison with the commonly applied system modelling techniques, this new methodology also has the capability to represent the maintenance process in far greater detail and as such options for: inspection and testing, servicing, reactive repair and component replacement based on condition, age or use can all be included. In considering system design options, levels of redundancy and diversity along with the component types selected can be investigated. All of the options for the design and maintenance can be incorporated into a single integrated Petri net and Bayesian network model and turned on and off as required to predict the effects of any combination of options selected. In addition this model has the ability to evaluate different system failure modes. The integrated Petri-net and Bayesian network approach is demonstrated through application to a remote un-manned wellhead platform from the oil and gas industry