Diverging responses of high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios

The present study investigates the response of the high-latitude carbon cycle to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in idealized climate change scenarios. To this end we use an adapted version of JSBACH – the land surface component of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) – that accounts for the organic matter stored in the permafrost-affected soils of the high northern latitudes. The model is run under different climate scenarios that assume an increase in GHG concentrations, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which peaks in the years 2025, 2050, 2075 or 2100, respectively. The peaks are followed by a decrease in atmospheric GHGs that returns the concentrations to the levels at the beginning of the 21st century, reversing the imposed climate change. We show that the soil CO2 emissions exhibit an almost linear dependence on the global mean surface temperatures that are simulated for the different climate scenarios. Here, each degree of warming increases the fluxes by, very roughly, 50 % of their initial value, while each degree of cooling decreases them correspondingly. However, the linear dependence does not mean that the processes governing the soil CO2 emissions are fully reversible on short timescales but rather that two strongly hysteretic factors offset each other – namely the net primary productivity and the availability of formerly frozen soil organic matter. In contrast, the soil methane emissions show a less pronounced increase with rising temperatures, and they are consistently lower after the peak in the GHG concentrations than prior to it. Here, the net fluxes could even become negative, and we find that methane emissions will play only a minor role in the northern high-latitude contribution to global warming, even when considering the high global warming potential of the gas. Finally, we find that at a global mean temperature of roughly 1.75 K (±0.5 K) above pre-industrial levels the high-latitude ecosystem turns from a CO2 sink into a source of atmospheric carbon, with the net fluxes into the atmosphere increasing substantially with rising atmospheric GHG concentrations. This is very different from scenario simulations with the standard version of the MPI-ESM, in which the region continues to take up atmospheric CO2 throughout the entire 21st century, confirming that the omission of permafrost-related processes and the organic matter stored in the frozen soils leads to a fundamental misrepresentation of the carbon dynamics in the Arctic

Sensitivity of Arctic CH4_4 emissions to landscape wetness diminished by atmospheric feedbacks

Simulations using land surface models suggest future increases in Arctic methane emissions to be limited by the thaw-induced drying of permafrost landscapes. Here we use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to show that this constraint may be weaker than previously thought owing to compensatory atmospheric feedbacks. In two sets of extreme scenario simulations, a modification of the permafrost hydrology resulted in diverging hydroclimatic trajectories that, however, led to comparable methane fluxes. While a wet Arctic showed almost twice the wetland area compared with an increasingly dry Arctic, the latter featured greater substrate availability due to higher temperatures resulting from reduced evaporation, diminished cloudiness and more surface solar radiation. Given the limitations of present-day models and the potential model dependence of the atmospheric response, our results provide merely a qualitative estimation of these effects, but they suggest that atmospheric feedbacks play an important role in shaping future Arctic methane emissions

Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate

The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone, with differences in model structure and parametrizations being one of the main sources of uncertainty. One particularly challenging aspect in modelling is the representation of terrestrial processes in permafrost-affected regions, which are often governed by spatial heterogeneity far below the resolution of the models' land surface components. Here, we use the MPI Earth System model to investigate how different plausible assumptions for the representation of the permafrost hydrology modulate the land-atmosphere interactions and how the resulting feedbacks affect not only the regional and global climate, but also our ability to predict whether the high latitudes will become wetter or drier in a warmer future. Focusing on two idealized setups that induce comparatively "wet" or "dry" conditions in regions that are presently affected by permafrost, we find that the parameter settings determine the direction of the 21st-century trend in the simulated soil water content and result in substantial differences in the land-atmosphere exchange of energy and moisture. The latter leads to differences in the simulated cloud cover and thus in the planetary energy uptake. The respective effects are so pronounced that uncertainties in the representation of the Arctic hydrological cycle can help to explain a large fraction of the inter-model spread in regional surface temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, they affect a range of components of the Earth system as far to the south as the tropics. With both setups being similarly plausible, our findings highlight the need for more observational constraints on the permafrost hydrology to reduce the inter-model spread in Arctic climate projections.publishedVersio

Infiltration from the pedon to global grid scales: an overview and outlook for land surface modelling

Infiltration in soils is a key process that partitions precipitation at the land surface in surface runoff and water that enters the soil profile. We reviewed the basic principles of water infiltration in soils and we analyzed approaches commonly used in Land Surface Models (LSMs) to quantify infiltration as well as its numerical implementation and sensitivity to model parameters. We reviewed methods to upscale infiltration from the point to the field, hill slope, and grid cell scale of LSMs. Despite the progress that has been made, upscaling of local scale infiltration processes to the grid scale used in LSMs is still far from being treated rigorously. We still lack a consistent theoretical framework to predict effective fluxes and parameters that control infiltration in LSMs. Our analysis shows, that there is a large variety in approaches used to estimate soil hydraulic properties. Novel, highly resolved soil information at higher resolutions than the grid scale of LSMs may help in better quantifying subgrid variability of key infiltration parameters. Currently, only a few land surface models consider the impact of soil structure on soil hydraulic properties. Finally, we identified several processes not yet considered in LSMs that are known to strongly influence infiltration. Especially, the impact of soil structure on infiltration requires further research. In order to tackle the above challenges and integrate current knowledge on soil processes affecting infiltration processes on land surface models, we advocate a stronger exchange and scientific interaction between the soil and the land surface modelling communities

Snowfall-albedo feedbacks could have led to deglaciation of snowball Earth starting from mid-latitudes

Simple and complex climate models suggest a hard snowball – a completely ice-covered planet – is one of the steady-states of Earth’s climate. However, a seemingly insurmountable challenge to the hard-snowball hypothesis lies in the difficulty in explaining how the planet could have exited the glaciated state within a realistic range of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we use simulations with the Earth system model MPI-ESM to demonstrate that terminal deglaciation could have been triggered by high dust deposition fluxes. In these simulations, deglaciation is not initiated in the tropics, where a strong hydrological cycle constantly regenerates fresh snow at the surface, which limits the dust accumulation and snow aging, resulting in a high surface albedo. Instead, comparatively low precipitation rates in the mid-latitudes in combination with high maximum temperatures facilitate lower albedos and snow dynamics that – for extreme dust fluxes – trigger deglaciation even at present-day carbon dioxide levels.Snowball Earth could have thawed at atmospheric CO2-levels comparable to the present as a result of low surface albedo in mid-latitudes from a combination dust deposition and low precipitation rates, according to Earth System Model simulationshttps://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/cerasearch/entry?acronym=DKRZ_LTA_231_ds0000

Snowfall-albedo feedbacks could have led to deglaciation of snowball Earth starting from mid-latitudes

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Simple and complex climate models suggest a hard snowball – a completely ice-covered planet – is one of the steady-states of Earth’s climate. However, a seemingly insurmountable challenge to the hard-snowball hypothesis lies in the difficulty in explaining how the planet could have exited the glaciated state within a realistic range of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we use simulations with the Earth system model MPI-ESM to demonstrate that terminal deglaciation could have been triggered by high dust deposition fluxes. In these simulations, deglaciation is not initiated in the tropics, where a strong hydrological cycle constantly regenerates fresh snow at the surface, which limits the dust accumulation and snow aging, resulting in a high surface albedo. Instead, comparatively low precipitation rates in the mid-latitudes in combination with high maximum temperatures facilitate lower albedos and snow dynamics that – for extreme dust fluxes – trigger deglaciation even at present-day carbon dioxide levels.</jats:p&gt