Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017 : a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Effectiveness of interventions to promote healthy diet in primary care: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Background A diet rich in fruit, vegetables and dietary fibre and low in fat is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease. This review aimed to estimate the effectiveness of interventions to promote healthy diet for primary prevention among participants attending primary care.<p></p> Methods A systematic review of trials using individual or cluster randomisation of interventions delivered in primary care to promote dietary change over 12 months in healthy participants free from chronic disease or defined high risk states. Outcomes were change in fruit and vegetable intake, consumption of total fat and fibre and changes in serum cholesterol concentration.<p></p> Results Ten studies were included with 12,414 participants. The design and delivery of interventions were diverse with respect to grounding in behavioural theory and intervention intensity. A meta-analysis of three studies showed an increase in fruit consumption of 0.25 (0.01 to 0.49) servings per day, with an increase in vegetable consumption of 0.25 (0.06 to 0.44) serving per day. A further three studies that reported on fruit and vegetable consumption together showed a pooled increment of 0.50 (0.13 to 0.87) servings per day. The pooled effect on consumption of dietary fibre, from four studies, was estimated to be 1.97 (0.43 to 3.52) gm fibre per day. Data from five studies showed a mean decrease in total fat intake of 5.2% of total energy (1.5 to 8.8%). Data from three studies showed a mean decrease in serum cholesterol of 0.10 (-0.19 to 0.00) mmol/L.<p></p> Conclusion Presently-reported interventions to promote healthy diet for primary prevention in primary care, which illustrate a diverse range of intervention methods, may yield small beneficial changes in consumption of fruit, vegetables, fibre and fat over 12 months. The present results do not exclude the possibility that more effective intervention strategies might be developed.<p></p&gt

Academic self-concept, gender and single-sex schooling

This paper assesses gender differences in academic self-concept for a cohort of children born in 1958 (the National Child Development Study). We address the question of whether attending single-sex or co-educational schools affected students’ perceptions of their own academic abilities (academic self-concept). Academic selfconcept was found to be highly gendered, even controlling for prior test scores. Boys had higher self-concepts in maths and science, and girls in English. Single-sex schooling reduced the gender gap in self-concept, while selective schooling was linked to lower academic self-concept overall

Defining sustainable transport in rural tourism: experiences from the New Forest

Transport policy agendas have long sought to bring about more sustainable transport at tourism destinations. While there are examples of successes, it remains unclear what inroads have been made towards creating a sustainable transport future. Policy directions have evolved over a number of years and in many tourism destination contexts it is far from clear what a desirable transport future looks like. When translated to implementation, the aims of initiatives can be unclear and baseline measures inconsistent, making success difficult to judge. This paper analyses how sustainable travel has been implemented in practice at a destination level. The focus is rural tourism and data are derived from a specific case, the New Forest National Park, UK, where a wide range of transport initiatives have been implemented since the Park’s designation in 2005. The study adopts a social practice theory perspective. Data are derived from a visitor survey, interviews and observations. It finds there is scope to improve sustainable transport provision at destinations through understanding visitor practices, but limited scope to influence meanings associated with visitor travel and travel skills. Policy meets the needs of some visitors more than others

Protocol for the Smoking, Nicotine and Pregnancy (SNAP) trial: double-blind, placebo-randomised, controlled trial of nicotine replacement therapy in pregnancy

Background: Smoking in pregnancy remains a public health challenge. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is effective for smoking cessation in non-pregnant people, but because women metabolise nicotine and cotinine much faster in pregnancy, it is unclear whether this will be effective for smoking cessation in pregnancy. The NHS Health Technology Assessment Programme (HTA)-funded smoking, nicotine and pregnancy ( SNAP) trial will investigate whether or not nicotine replacement therapy ( NRT) is effective, cost-effective and safe when used for smoking cessation by pregnant women. Methods/Design: Over two years, in 5 trial centres, 1050 pregnant women who are between 12 and 24 weeks pregnant will be randomised as they attend hospital for ante-natal ultrasound scans. Women will receive either nicotine or placebo transdermal patches with behavioural support. The primary outcome measure is biochemically-validated, self-reported, prolonged and total abstinence from smoking between a quit date ( defined before randomisation and set within two weeks of this) and delivery. At six months after childbirth self-reported maternal smoking status will be ascertained and two years after childbirth, self-reported maternal smoking status and the behaviour, cognitive development and respiratory symptoms of children born in the trial will be compared in both groups. Discussion: This trial is designed to ascertain whether or not standard doses of NRT ( as transdermal patches) are effective and safe when used for smoking cessation during pregnancy

Effect of Contemporary Bariatric Surgical Procedures on Type 2 Diabetes Remission. A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to evaluate the effect of gastric banding, gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy on medium to long-term diabetes control in obese participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Matched cohort study using primary care electronic health records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Obese participants with type 2 diabetes who received bariatric surgery from 2002 to 2014 were compared with matched control participants who did not receive BS. Remission was defined for each year of follow-up as HbA1c <6.5 % and no antidiabetic drugs prescribed. RESULTS: There were 826 obese participants with T2DM who received bariatric surgery including adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) 220; gastric bypass (GBP) 449; or sleeve gastrectomy (SG) 153; with four procedures undefined. Mean HbA1c declined from 8.0 % before BS to 6.5 % in the second postoperative year; proportion with HbA1c <6.5 % (<48 mmol/mol) increased from 17 to 47 %. The proportion of patients in remission was 30 % in the second year, being 20 % for LAGB, 34 % for GBP and 38 % for SG. The adjusted relative rate of remission over the first six postoperative years was 5.97 (4.86 to 7.33, P < 0.001) overall; for LAGB 3.32 (2.27 to 4.86); GBP 7.16 (5.64 to 9.08); and SG 6.82 (5.05 to 9.19). Rates of remission were maintained into the sixth year of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Remission of diabetes may continue for up to 6 years after bariatric surgical procedures. Diabetes outcomes are generally more favourable after gastric bypass or sleeve gastrectomy than LAGB

Stacked Search for Gravitational Waves from the 2006 SGR 1900+14 Storm

We present the results of a LIGO search for short-duration gravitational waves (GWs) associated with the 2006 March 29 SGR 1900+14 storm. A new search method is used, "stacking'' the GW data around the times of individual soft-gamma bursts in the storm to enhance sensitivity for models in which multiple bursts are accompanied by GW emission. We assume that variation in the time difference between burst electromagnetic emission and potential burst GW emission is small relative to the GW signal duration, and we time-align GW excess power time-frequency tilings containing individual burst triggers to their corresponding electromagnetic emissions. We use two GW emission models in our search: a fluence-weighted model and a flat (unweighted) model for the most electromagnetically energetic bursts. We find no evidence of GWs associated with either model. Model-dependent GW strain, isotropic GW emission energy E_GW, and \gamma = E_GW / E_EM upper limits are estimated using a variety of assumed waveforms. The stacking method allows us to set the most stringent model-dependent limits on transient GW strain published to date. We find E_GW upper limit estimates (at a nominal distance of 10 kpc) of between 2x10^45 erg and 6x10^50 erg depending on waveform type. These limits are an order of magnitude lower than upper limits published previously for this storm and overlap with the range of electromagnetic energies emitted in SGR giant flares.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure