Impacts of Pacific SSTs on Atmospheric Circulations Leading to California Winter Precipitation Variability: A Diagnostic Modeling

One of the primary meteorological causes of the winter precipitation deficits and droughts in California (CA) is anomalous developments and maintenance of upper-tropospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific. In order to understand and find the key factors controlling the winter precipitation variability in CA, the present study examines two dominant atmospheric modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere using an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and their associated large-scale circulation patterns for the last 41 winters (1974/75–2014/15). Explaining 17.5% of variability, the second mode (EOF2) shows strong anti-cyclonic circulations in the North Pacific and cyclonic circulations in the eastern USA and mid-latitude North Atlantic, similar to the atmospheric circulation observed in the 2013/14 drought of CA. EOF2 is tightly and significantly correlated with CA winter precipitation. EOF2 is associated with warm western-cool eastern tropical Pacific, resembling a mirror image of canonical El Niño events. In particular, it is found that, since the mid-1990s, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western tropical Pacific have been more tightly correlated with EOF2 and with the variability of CA precipitation. A diagnostic regression model based on the west-east SST difference in the tropical Pacific developed for two recent decades (1994/95–2014/15) has been found to capture the slow-moving interannual variability of the CA winter precipitation (about 50%). The regression model performs well, especially for the central and northern CA precipitation, where the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation are indecisive. Our results emphasize the significant role of the western tropical Pacific SST forcing in the recent past, and in turn on CA droughts and potentially other precipitation extremes

Physically based equation representing the forcing-driven precipitation in climate models

This study aims to improve our understanding of the response of precipitation to forcings by proposing a physically-based equation that resolves simulated precipitation based on the atmospheric energy budget. The equation considers the balance between latent heat release by precipitation and the sum of the slow response by tropospheric temperature changes and the fast response by abrupt radiative forcing (RF) changes. The equation is tuned with three parameters for each climate model and then adequately reproduces time-varying precipitation. By decomposing the equation, we highlight the slow response as the largest contributor to forcing-driven responses and uncertainty sizes in simulations. The second largest one to uncertainty is the fast-RF response from aerosols or greenhouse gases (GHG), depending on the low or highest Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection 6 future scenarios. The likely range of precipitation change at specific warming levels under GHG removal (GGR) and solar radiation management (SRM) mitigation plans is evaluated by a simple model optimizing the relationship between temperature and decomposed contributions from multi-simulations under three scenarios. The results indicate that GGR has more severe effects from aerosols than GHG for a 1.5 K warming, resulting in 0.91%–1.62% increases in precipitation. In contrast, SRM pathways project much drier conditions than GGR results due to the tropospheric cooling and remaining anthropogenic radiative heating. Overall, the proposed physically-based equation, the decomposition analysis, and our simple model provide valuable insights into the uncertainties under different forcings and mitigation pathways, highlighting the importance of slow and fast responses to human-induced forcings in shaping future precipitation changes

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

This study assessed the anthropogenic contribution to the 2015 record-breaking high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Considering a close link between extreme warm events in these regions, we conducted a joint attribution analysis using a fraction of attributable risk approach. Probability of occurrence of such extreme anomalies and long-term trends for the two oceanic regions were compared between CMIP5 multi-model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Results show that the excessive warming in both regions is well beyond the range of natural variability and robustly attributable to human activities due to greenhouse gas increase. We further explored associated mechanisms including the Bjerknes feedback and background anthropogenic warming. It is concluded that background warming was the main contribution to the 2015 extreme SST event over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean on a developing El Niño condition, which in turn induced the extreme SST event over the tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric bridge effect.113Ysciescopu

A Temporal Multiscale Analysis of the Waters off the East Coast of South Korea over the Past Four Decades

We address the trends in water temperature variability to understand the local global warming effects through different time scales using daily sea surface temperature (SST) measurements from 1966 - 2004. The abrupt SST changes off of the east coast of Korea are related to similar changes observed in the North Pacific. Seasonal water temperatures have increased by at least a factor of two or more in winter than in summer. While SSTs on annual timescales have increased significantly, SSTs on interannual timescales have decreased slightly at all stations. The anomalies in SST decadal time scales reveal maxima in temperature occurring in the mid-to-late 1970¡¦s, circa 1990 and circa 2000. These maxima coincide with major peaks in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) with a lag of 4 - 7 months. The most significant warming appears in the long-term SST trends at each station where it approaches +0.05°C yr-1. Overall, the SST off the east coast of Korea has increased at rates that are far greater than what is reported in many other marginal seas

Contrasting response of hydrological cycle over land and ocean to a changing CO2 pathway

The hydrological cycle has a significant impact on human activities and ecosystems, so understanding its mechanisms with respect to a changing climate is essential. In particular, a more detailed understanding of hydrological cycle response to transient climate change is required for successful adaptation and mitigation policies. In this study, we exploit large ensemble model experiments using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2 (CESM1) in which CO2 concentrations increase steadily and then decrease along the same path. Our results show that precipitation changes in the CO2 increasing and decreasing phases are nearly symmetrical over land but asymmetric over oceans. After CO2 concentrations peak, the ocean continues to uptake heat from the atmosphere, which is a key process leading the hydrological cycle’s contrasting response over land and ocean. The symmetrical hydrological cycle response over land involves a complex interplay between rapid responses to CO2 and slower responses to ensuing warming. Therefore, the surface energy constraints lead to the contrasting hydrological response over land and ocean to CO2 forcing that needs to be verified and considered in climate change mitigation and adaption actions

Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales

There is an evidence of the increasing intensity as well as occurrence frequency of the so-called central Pacific (CP) El Niño events since the 1990s. We examine whether such an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño may be a manifestation of natural climate variability. A control simulation of the Kiel Climate Model, run for 4200 years with the present values of greenhouse gases, exhibit large variations of the occurrence frequency of the CP El Niño versus the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. A model simulates to some extent changes in the occurrence ratio of CP and EP El Niño in comparison with the observations. Therefore, we can not exclude the possibility that an increasing of occurrence frequency of CP El Niño during recent decades in the observation could be a part of natural variability in the tropical climate system

Nonlinear impact of the Arctic Oscillation on extratropical surface air temperature

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the leading climate mode of sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies during cold season in the Northern Hemisphere. To a large extent, the atmospheric climate anomalies associated with positive and negative phases of the AO are opposite to each other, indicating linear impact. However, there is also significant nonlinear relationship between the AO and other winter climate variability. We investigate nonlinear impacts of the AO on surface air temperature (SAT) using reanalysis data and a multi-millennial long climate simulation. It is found that SAT response to the AO, in terms of both spatial pattern and magnitude, is almost linear when the amplitude of the AO is moderate. However, the response becomes quite nonlinear as the amplitude of the AO becomes stronger. First, the pattern shift in SAT depends on AO phase and magnitude, and second, the SAT magnitude depends on AO phase. In particular, these nonlinearities are distinct over the North America and Eurasian Continent. Based on the analyses of model output, we suggest that the nonlinear zonal advection term is one of the critical components in generating nonlinear SAT response, particularly over the North America. Key Points: - We investigate nonlinear impacts of the AO on surface air temperature - The response becomes nonlinear for the strong AO events - The nonlinear advection is a critical component for the nonlinear SAT respons

ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

This is the final version of the article. Available from AGU via the DOI in this record.El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.S. W. Y. is supported by the KoreaMeteorological Administration Researchand Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2112. Wenju Cai is supported by Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australia National Environmental Science Programme, and Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, an international collaboration between CSIRO and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Sciences and Technology. B. Dewitte acknowledges supports from FONDECYT(1151185) and from LEFE-GMMC. Dietmar Dommenget is supported by ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028)