Une méthode stochastique pour la prédétermination des fluctuations probables des durées de service des réservoirs collinaires en Tunisie

Un modèle de génération stochastique de pluies est couplé ˆ un modèle de calcul de l'index de leurs érosivités, dérivé de l'Equation Universelle de l'Erosion des Sols (USLE). Le premier fonctionne au pas de temps de 30mn, il est calé sur une série pluviographique de 15 ans de la Tunisie centrale. Le second modèle fonctionne par calcul automatique des cumuls et moyennes de l'érosivité des pluies générées.En mode opérationnel, ces deux modèles sont exploités pour simuler les aléas de l'envasement annuel des réservoirs collinaires de la zone aride et semi-aride de la Tunisie : le bassin versant est considéré comme une "boite noire" où l'agressivité climatique est la principale variable (quelques pluies extrêmes font l'essentiel de l'érosion), les autres facteurs sont considérés constants durant la durée de service du réservoir. Nous observons sur trois bassins versants répartis du nord au sud de la frange comprise entre 500mm et 250mm (de pluie moyenne annuelle), que la distribution annuelle des index d'érosivité des pluies peut être assimilée ˆ la distribution des transports solides.Sur l'un de ces bassins versants (OUED EL HISSIANE : 15,9 ) nous observons également que les valeurs extrêmes de l'érosion sont proportionnelles aux valeurs extrêmes de l'index d'érosivité des pluies. Seulement l'automne et le printemps sont des saisons érosives.Dans le cas de petits bassins versants non-jaugés, comme ceux pour l'aménagement de réservoirs collinaires, le générateur nous permet de constituer des chroniques d'érosivité de pluie. Si on considère que les autres paramètres sont constants, ce modèle nous aide à déterminer les intervalles de confiance de durées de service probables.Une analyse de sensibilité par la modification des paramètres du générateur (nombre d'épisodes, hauteur de pluie, maximum et durée d'averse etc ...) valide la méthodologie. De même une analyse régionale montre les faibles fluctuations des résultats sur l'étendue aride et semi-aride de la Tunisie.Ces deux résultats nous ont conduit à proposer un abaque régional de prédétermination des fluctuations probables des durées de service des réservoirs collinaires, compte tenu de la connaissance préalable de la durée de service moyenne probable.Cette méthode directement opérationnelle peut être utilisée pour l'aménagement, la planification, et la gestion des réservoirs collinaires. Elle améliore les études de faisabilité, notamment lorsqu'on la couple aux calculs économiques.A stochastic rainfall generator and a model for calculating the erosivity index of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) are coupled. The first one operates on a 30 min time step and it is calibrated on a 15 year historical pluviographic database for central Tunisia. The second model works like an automatic calculator, where the rain erosivity index can be averaged or summed. These two models are applied to simulate the annual siltation of hill reservoirs in arid and semi-arid areas of Tunisia. The catchment is considered as a "black-box" where mostly climatic aggressivity is varying (some extreme rainfall events cause most of the erosion) and the other erosion parameters are considered to remain constant over the lifetime of the reservoir. We know that the WISCHMEIER rain erosion index has no upper limit. When all the other factors are maintained constant, erosion is proportional to it. This climatic index is calculated for each rain event, but we can also calculate the annual average or sum it over many years. Soil losses (or solid transport) during a period are proportional to the value of this index summed over the same period.We demonstrate on three representative catchments lying from north to south (from 500 mm to 250 mm annual average rainfall) that the annual rain erosion index distribution can be considered comparable to the solid transport distribution (Galton distributions with equal statistical parameters).For the OUED EL HISSIANE catchment (15.9 km2), the annual extreme value of erosion is proportional to the annual extreme value of the rain erosion index. Only spring and autumn storms need be considered to calculate the annual sediment loss.On gauged small catchments like those of hill reservoirs, the rainfall generator can provide an erosivity rainfall record. Considering that the other erosion parameters are constant, this model allows one to calculate the confidence intervals of a reservoir's predicted durations. We equate the annual erosivity index distribution to the annual solid supplies distribution, and we generate and sum over several consecutive years many series of "solid supplies" to simulate the progressive silting up of the reservoirs (represented by the chosen period : sum over T=5 years, 10 years, 15 years ...). In the context of setting up hill reservoirs, this study concerns the potential duration and possible services of hydraulic structures (including the risk of rapid silting up of the reservoirs). This generator can be computed over many years and avoids the limitation due to the short observed time series.The methodological benefit of such an approach is therefore to avoid the difficulty of limited observed samples. It enlarges the data analysis of the series dispersal and residuals. This approach, based on observations and a statistical method, supports experimental analysis. It gives a clear idea of the rate of siltation, according to climatic hazards. A sensitivity analysis, where we modify the rainfall generator parameters (number of episodes and quantity of rain, peak and duration of storm...), is used to validate the methodology. A regional analysis shows a very low fluctuation considering the whole arid and semi-arid area of Tunisia. These two results led us to set up a regional abacus. This abacus reports the forecasts of the fluctuations of the time length service for hilly and small dams, including the probable average of their service duration. It allow a predetermination of the small dams' life time together with a confidence interval, and it can be used for small dam construction, planning and management. It improves the first feasibility study and can be included in economic calculations

Systematic studies of binding energy dependence of neutron - proton momentum correlation function

Hanbury Brown-Twiss (HBT) results of the neutron-proton correlation function have been systematically investigated for a series nuclear reactions with light projectiles with help of Isospin-Dependent Quantum Molecular Dynamics model. The relationship between the binding energy per nucleon of the projectiles and the strength of the neutron-proton HBT at small relative momentum has been obtained. Results show that neutron-proton HBT results are sensitive to the binding energy per nucleon.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures; accepted by Journal of Physics G: Nuclear and Particle Physic

14Be(p,n)14B reaction at 69 MeV in inverse kinematics

A Gamow-Teller (GT) transition from the drip-line nucleus 14Be to 14B was studied via the (p,n) reaction in inverse kinematics using a secondary 14Be beam at 69 MeV/nucleon. The invariant mass method is employed to reconstruct the energy spectrum. A peak is observed at an excitation energy of 1.27(2) MeV in 14B, together with bumps at 2.08 and 4.06(5) MeV. The observed forward peaking of the state at 1.27 MeV and a good description for the differential cross section, obtained with a DWBA calculation provide support for the 1+ assignment to this state. By extrapolating the cross section to zero momentum transfer the GT-transition strength is deduced. The value is found to compare well with that reported in a beta-delayed neutron emission study.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Parallel momentum distribution of the 28^{28}Si fragments from 29^{29}P

Distribution of the parallel momentum of $^{28}$Si fragments from the breakup of 30.7 MeV/nucleon $^{29}$P has been measured on C targets. The distribution has the FWHM with the value of 110.5 $\pm$ 23.5 MeV/c which is consistent quantitatively with Galuber model calculation assuming by a valence proton in $^{29}$P. The density distribution is also predicted by Skyrme-Hartree-Fock calculation. Results show that there might exist the proton-skin structure in $^{29}$P.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

The practices of apartheid as a war crime: a critical analysis

The human suffering caused by the political ideology of apartheid in South Africa during the Apartheid era (1948-1994) prompted worldwide condemnation and a variety of diplomatic and legal responses. Amongst these responses was the attempt to have apartheid recognised both as a crime against humanity in the 1973 Apartheid Convention as well as a war crime in Article 85(4)(c) of Additional Protocol I. This article examines the origins, nature and current status of the practices of apartheid as a war crime and its possible application to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Mirror Symmetry and Other Miracles in Superstring Theory

The dominance of string theory in the research landscape of quantum gravity physics (despite any direct experimental evidence) can, I think, be justified in a variety of ways. Here I focus on an argument from mathematical fertility, broadly similar to Hilary Putnam's 'no miracles argument' that, I argue, many string theorists in fact espouse. String theory leads to many surprising, useful, and well-confirmed mathematical 'predictions' - here I focus on mirror symmetry. These predictions are made on the basis of general physical principles entering into string theory. The success of the mathematical predictions are then seen as evidence for framework that generated them. I attempt to defend this argument, but there are nonetheless some serious objections to be faced. These objections can only be evaded at a high (philosophical) price.Comment: For submission to a Foundations of Physics special issue on "Forty Years Of String Theory: Reflecting On the Foundations" (edited by G. `t Hooft, E. Verlinde, D. Dieks and S. de Haro)

Developing Global Maps of the Dominant Anopheles Vectors of Human Malaria

Simon Hay and colleagues describe how the Malaria Atlas Project has collated anopheline occurrence data to map the geographic distributions of the dominant mosquito vectors of human malaria

Natural Plant Sugar Sources of Anopheles Mosquitoes Strongly Impact Malaria Transmission Potential

An improved knowledge of mosquito life history could strengthen malaria vector control efforts that primarily focus on killing mosquitoes indoors using insecticide treated nets and indoor residual spraying. Natural sugar sources, usually floral nectars of plants, are a primary energy resource for adult mosquitoes but their role in regulating the dynamics of mosquito populations is unclear. To determine how the sugar availability impacts Anopheles sergentii populations, mark-release-recapture studies were conducted in two oases in Israel with either absence or presence of the local primary sugar source, flowering Acacia raddiana trees. Compared with population estimates from the sugar-rich oasis, An. sergentii in the sugar-poor oasis showed smaller population size (37,494 vs. 85,595), lower survival rates (0.72 vs. 0.93), and prolonged gonotrophic cycles (3.33 vs. 2.36 days). The estimated number of females older than the extrinsic incubation period of malaria (10 days) in the sugar rich site was 4 times greater than in the sugar poor site. Sugar feeding detected in mosquito guts in the sugar-rich site was significantly higher (73%) than in the sugar-poor site (48%). In contrast, plant tissue feeding (poor quality sugar source) in the sugar-rich habitat was much less (0.3%) than in the sugar-poor site (30%). More important, the estimated vectorial capacity, a standard measure of malaria transmission potential, was more than 250-fold higher in the sugar-rich oasis than that in the sugar-poor site. Our results convincingly show that the availability of sugar sources in the local environment is a major determinant regulating the dynamics of mosquito populations and their vector potential, suggesting that control interventions targeting sugar-feeding mosquitoes pose a promising tactic for combating transmission of malaria parasites and other pathogens

Responses of Tectal Neurons to Contrasting Stimuli: An Electrophysiological Study in the Barn Owl

The saliency of visual objects is based on the center to background contrast. Particularly objects differing in one feature from the background may be perceived as more salient. It is not clear to what extent this so called “pop-out” effect observed in humans and primates governs saliency perception in non-primates as well. In this study we searched for neural-correlates of pop-out perception in neurons located in the optic tectum of the barn owl. We measured the responses of tectal neurons to stimuli appearing within the visual receptive field, embedded in a large array of additional stimuli (the background). Responses were compared between contrasting and uniform conditions. In a contrasting condition the center was different from the background while in the uniform condition it was identical to the background. Most tectal neurons responded better to stimuli in the contrsating condition compared to the uniform condition when the contrast between center and background was the direction of motion but not when it was the orientation of a bar. Tectal neurons also preferred contrasting over uniform stimuli when the center was looming and the background receding but not when the center was receding and the background looming. Therefore, our results do not support the hypothesis that tectal neurons are sensitive to pop-out per-se. The specific sensitivity to the motion contrasting stimulus is consistent with the idea that object motion and not large field motion (e.g., self-induced motion) is coded in the neural responses of tectal neurons

Mortality among patients with tuberculosis requiring intensive care: a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To describe the characteristics of patients with tuberculosis (TB) requiring intensive care and to identify the factors that predicts in-hospital mortality in a city of a developing country with intermediate-to-high TB endemicity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a retrospective, cohort study, between November 2005 and November 2007. The patients with TB requiring intensive care were included. Predictors of mortality were assessed. The primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the study period, 67 patients with TB required intensive care. Of them, 62 (92.5%) had acute respiratory failure and required mechanical ventilation. Forty-four (65.7%) patients died. Coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus was present in 46 (68.7%) patients. Early intensive care unit admission and ventilator-associated pneumonia were independently associated with the in-hospital mortality.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study we found a high mortality rate in TB patients requiring intensive care, especially in those with an early ICU admission.</p