Evaluation of bottom-up and top-down strategies for aggregated forecasts: state space models and arima applications

Abstract. In this research, we consider monthly series from the M4 competition to study the relative performance of top-down and bottom-up strategies by means of implementing forecast automation of state space and ARIMA models. For the bottomup strategy, the forecast for each series is developed individually and then these are combined to produce a cumulative forecast of the aggregated series. For the top-down strategy, the series or components values are first combined and then a single forecast is determined for the aggregated series. Based on our implementation, state space models showed a higher forecast performance when a top-down strategy is applied. ARIMA models had a higher forecast performance for the bottom-up strategy. For state space models the top-down strategy reduced the overall error significantly. ARIMA models showed to be more accurate when forecasts are first determined individually. As part of the development we also proposed an approach to improve the forecasting procedure of aggregation strategies

Disgorgement of profits in Belgian private law

The traditional rendition of Belgian law does not list disgorgement as a remedy. In reality, however, disgorgement is ordered in certain circumstances, but it is generally not recognized as such. For example, case law on personality rights and intellectual property rights contains examples where courts, under the banner of loss compensation, in fact set damages at a level higher than the actual losses to force the wrongdoer to hand over his profits. Also, non-compliance penalties are set at a level to provide an incentive to obey a court order, requiring the amount to be equal to the profits that can be made by ignoring the order. On the other hand, some instances of primary proprietary rights to profits can alternatively be understood as examples of disgorgement as a remedy for infringements of rights. Examples are the right of an owner to the fruits a male fide possessor realizes from his property and the right of the solvens to the income the bad faith accipiens has earned from an undue payment. In the view of the national reporter, Belgian private law apparently includes a (hidden) general principle that gives the holder of a subjective right a claim for disgorgement of profits realized by another person who in bad faith infringed the exclusive authority of the rightholder. This general principle has not (yet) been explicitly recognized by the courts, but it helps to understand what courts are actually doing in cases that cannot be explained under standard rules of civil liability

Emu-BCL10 mice exhibit constitutive activation of both canonical and noncanonical NF-kappaB pathways generating marginal zone (MZ) B-cell expansion as a precursor to splenic MZ lymphoma.

BCL10, required for nuclear factor kappaB (NF-kappaB) activation during antigen-driven lymphocyte responses, is aberrantly expressed in mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue-type marginal zone (MZ) lymphomas because of chromosomal translocations. Emu-driven human BCL10 transgenic (Tg) mice, which we created and characterize here, had expanded populations of MZ B cells and reduced follicular and B1a cells. Splenic B cells from Tg mice exhibited constitutive activation of both canonical and noncanonical NF-kappaB signaling pathways is associated with increased expression of NF-kappaB target genes. These genes included Tnfsf13b, which encodes the B-cell activating factor (BAFF). In addition, levels of BAFF were significantly increased in sera from Tg mice. MZ B cells of Tg mice exhibited reduced turnover in vivo and enhanced survival in vitro, indicative of lymphoaccumulation rather than lymphoproliferation as the cause of MZ expansion. In vivo antibody responses to both T-independent, and especially T-dependent, antigens were significantly reduced in Tg mice. Mortality was accelerated in Tg animals, and some mice older than 8 months had histologic and molecular findings indicative of clonal splenic MZ lymphoma. These results suggest that, in addition to constitutive activation of BCL10 in MZ B cells, other genetic factors or environmental influences are required for short latency oncogenic transformation