Nitric acid in the stratosphere based on Odin observations from 2001 to 2009 – Part 2: High-altitude polar enhancements

The wintertime abundance of nitric acid (HNO<sub>3</sub>) in the polar upper stratosphere displays a strong inter-annual variability, and is known to be strongly influenced by energetic particle precipitation (EPP), primarily by protons during solar proton events (SPEs), but also by precipitating auroral or relativistic electrons. We analyse a multi-year record (August 2001 to April 2009) of middle atmospheric HNO<sub>3</sub> measurements by the Sub-Millimeter Radiometer instrument aboard the Odin satellite, with a focus on the polar upper stratosphere. SMR observations show clear evidence of two different types of polar high-altitude HNO<sub>3</sub> enhancements linked to EPP. In the first type, referred to as direct enhancements by analogy with the EPP/NO<sub>x</sub> direct effect, enhanced HNO<sub>3</sub> mixing ratios are observed for a short period (1 week) after a SPE, upwards of a level typically in the mid-stratosphere. In a second type, referred to as indirect enhancements by analogy with the EPP/NO<sub>x</sub> indirect effect, the descent of mesospheric air triggers a stronger and longer-lasting enhancement. Each of the three major SPEs that occurred during the Northern Hemisphere autumn or winter, in November 2001, October–November 2003 and January 2005, are observed to lead to both direct and indirect HNO<sub>3</sub> enhancements. On the other hand, indirect enhancements occur recurrently in winter, are stronger in the Southern Hemisphere, and are influenced by EPP at higher altitudes

Growing land-sea temperature contrast and the intensification of Arctic cyclones

Cyclones play an important role in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system on a range of timescales. Modelling studies suggest that storminess will increase in the Arctic summer due to the enhanced land-sea thermal contrast along the Arctic coastline, in a region known as the Arctic Frontal Zone (AFZ). However, the climate models used in these studies are poor at reproducing the present-day Arctic summer cyclone climatology and so their projections of Arctic cyclones and related quantities, such as sea ice, may not be reliable. In this study we perform composite analysis of Arctic cyclone statistics using AFZ variability as an analogue for climate change. High AFZ years are characterised both by increased cyclone frequency and dynamical intensity, compared to low years. Importantly, the size of the response in this analogue suggests that GCMs may underestimate the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change, given a similar change in baroclinicity

Descent from the polar mesosphere and anomalously high stratopause observed in 8 years of water vapor and temperature satellite observations by the Odin Sub-Millimeter Radiometer

Using newly analyzed mesospheric water vapor and temperature observations from the Sub-Millimeter Radiometer instrument aboard the Odin research satellite over the period 2001-2009, we present evidence for an anomalously strong descent of dry mesospheric air from the lower mesosphere into the upper stratosphere in the winters of 2004, 2006, and 2009. In the three cases, the descent follows the recovery of the upper stratospheric polar vortex from a major midwinter stratospheric sudden warming. It is also accompanied by the rapid formation of an anomalously warm polar mesospheric layer, i.e., an elevated polar stratopause, near 75 km, and its slower descent to prewarming level (near 1 hPa) over 1.5-2 months. These three winters stand out in the current record of Odin/Sub-Millimeter Radiometer observations started in July 2001

Dynamics and chemistry of vortex remnants in late Arctic spring 1997 and 2000: Simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS)

High-resolution simulations of the chemical composition of the Arctic stratosphere during late spring 1997 and 2000 were performed with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). The simulations were performed for the entire northern hemisphere on two isentropic levels 450 K (~18 km) and 585 K (~24 km).<br> <br> The spatial distribution and the lifetime of the vortex remnants formed after the vortex breakup in May 1997 display different behavior above and below 20 km. Above 20 km, vortex remnants propagate southward (up to 40°N) and are &quot;frozen in'' in the summer circulation without significant mixing. Below 20 km the southward propagation of the remnants is bounded by the subtropical jet. Their lifetime is shorter by a factor of 2 than that above 20 km, owing to significant stirring below this altitude. The behavior of vortex remnants formed in March 2000 is similar but, due to an earlier vortex breakup, dominated during the first 6 weeks after the vortex breakup by westerly winds, even above 20 km.<br> <br> Vortex remnants formed in May 1997 are characterized by large mixing ratios of HCl indicating negligible, halogen-induced ozone loss. In contrast, mid-latitude ozone loss in late boreal spring 2000 is dominated, until mid-April, by halogen-induced ozone destruction within the vortex remnants, and subsequent transport of the ozone-depleted polar air masses (dilution) into the mid-latitudes. By varying the intensity of mixing in CLaMS, the impact of mixing on the formation of ClONO₂ and ozone depletion is investigated. We find that the photochemical decomposition of HNO₃ and not mixing with NO_x-rich mid-latitude air is the main source of NO_x within the vortex remnants in March and April 2000. Ozone depletion in the remnants is driven by ClO_x photolytically formed from ClONO₂. At the end of May 1997, the halogen-induced ozone deficit at 450 K poleward of 30°N amounts to ~12% with ~10% in the polar vortex and ~2% in well-isolated vortex remnants after the vortex breakup

Impacts of snow assimilation on seasonal snow and meteorological forecasts for the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) contains the largest amount of snow outside the polar regions and is the source of many major rivers in Asia. An accurate long-range (i.e. seasonal) meteorological forecast is of great importance for this region. The fifth-generation seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (SEAS5) provides global long-range meteorological forecasts including over the TP. However, SEAS5 uses land initial conditions produced by assimilating Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow data only below 1500 m altitude, which may affect the forecast skill of SEAS5 over mountainous regions like the TP. To investigate the impacts of snow assimilation on the forecasts of snow, temperature and precipitation, twin ensemble reforecasts are initialized with and without snow assimilation above 1500 m altitude over the TP for spring and summer 2018. Significant changes occur in the springtime. Without snow assimilation, the reforecasts overestimate snow cover and snow depth while underestimating daily temperature over the TP. Compared to satellite-based estimates, precipitation reforecasts perform better in the west TP (WTP) than in the east TP (ETP). With snow assimilation, the reforecasts of snow cover, snow depth and temperature are consistently improved in the TP in the spring. However, the positive bias between the precipitation reforecasts and satellite observations worsens in the ETP. Compared to the experiment with no snow assimilation, the snow assimilation experiment significantly increases temperature and precipitation for the ETP and around the longitude 95∘ E. The higher temperature after snow assimilation, in particular the cold bias reduction after initialization, can be attributed to the effects of a more realistic, decreased snowpack, providing favourable conditions for generating more precipitation. Overall, snow assimilation can improve seasonal forecasts through the interaction between land and atmosphere.</p

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Regional differences of vitamin D deficiency in rheumatoid arthritis patients in Italy

Vitamin D deficiency is very common in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency among the different Italian regions and whether these variations are associated with different severity of the disease. The study includes 581 consecutive RA patients (464 women), not taking vitamin D supplements, from 22 Italian rheumatology centres uniformly distributed across Italy. Together with parameters of disease activity (disease activity score 28), functional impairment (activities of daily living and health assessment questionnaire disability index) and mean sun exposure time, all patients had serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) measured in a centralized laboratory. Vitamin D deficiency (25OHD level <20 ng/mL) was very frequent among RA patients; its prevalence was 60%, 52% and 38% in southern, central and northern Italy, respectively. Mean disease activity and disability scores were worse in southern regions of Italy. These scores were inversely related to 25OHD levels and this correlation remained statistically significant after adjusting for both body mass index (BMI) and sun exposure time. However, disease severity remained significantly higher in southern regions versus central-northern Italy after adjustment also for serum 25OHD levels, age and BMI. In RA Italian patients there are significant regional differences in the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency explained by different BMI, and sun exposure time, and inversely associated with disease activity and disability scores

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution