Estimating Health Care Costs Among Fragile and Conflict Affected States: an Elastic Net-Risk Measures Approach

Fragile and conflict affected states (FCAS) are those in which the government lacks the political will and/or capacity to provide the basic functions necessary for poverty reduction, economic development, and the security of human rights of their populations.Until recent history, unfortunately, the majority of research conducted and universal health care debates have been centered around middle income and emerging economies. As a result, FCAS have been neglected from many global discussions and decisions. Due to this neglect, many FCAS do not have proper vaccinations and antibiotics. Seemingly, well estimated health care costs are a necessary stepping stone in improving the health of citizens among FCAS. Fortunately, developments in statistical learning theory combined with data obtained by the WBG and Transparency International make it possible to accurately model health care cost among FCAS. The data used in this paper consisted of 35 countries and 89 variables. Of these 89 variables, health care expenditure (HCE) was the only response variable. With 88 predictor variables, there was expected to be multicollinearity, which occurs when multiple variables share relatively large absolute correlation. Since multicollinearity is expected and the number of variables is far greater than the number of observations, this paper adopts Zou and Hastie\u27s method of regularization via elastic net (ENET). In order to accurately estimate the maximum and expected maximum HCE among FCAS, well-known risk measures, such as Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk, and related quantities were obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. This paper obtained risk measures at 95 security level

Current polarity-dependent manipulation of antiferromagnetic domains

Antiferromagnets have several favourable properties as active elements in spintronic devices, including ultra-fast dynamics, zero stray fields and insensitivity to external magnetic fields. Tetragonal CuMnAs is a testbed system in which the antiferromagnetic order parameter can be switched reversibly at ambient conditions using electrical currents. In previous experiments, orthogonal in-plane current pulses were used to induce 90° rotations of antiferromagnetic domains and demonstrate the operation of all-electrical memory bits in a multi-terminal geometry. Here, we demonstrate that antiferromagnetic domain walls can be manipulated to realize stable and reproducible domain changes using only two electrical contacts. This is achieved by using the polarity of the current to switch the sign of the current-induced effective field acting on the antiferromagnetic sublattices. The resulting reversible domain and domain wall reconfigurations are imaged using X-ray magnetic linear dichroism microscopy, and can also be detected electrically. Switching by domain-wall motion can occur at much lower current densities than those needed for coherent domain switching

Circulating Damage Marker Profiles Support a Neuroprotective Effect of Erythropoietin in Ischemic Stroke Patients

The German Multicenter EPO Stroke Trial, which investigated safety and efficacy of erythropoietin (EPO) treatment in ischemic stroke, was formally declared a negative study. Exploratory subgroup analysis, however, revealed that patients not receiving thrombolysis most likely benefited from EPO during clinical recovery, a result demonstrated in the findings of the Göttingen EPO Stroke Study. The present work investigated whether the positive signal on clinical outcome in this patient subgroup was mirrored by respective poststroke biomarker profiles. All patients of the German Multicenter EPO Stroke Trial nonqualifying for thrombolysis were included if they (a) were treated per protocol and (b) had at least two of the five follow-up blood samples for circulating damage markers drawn (n = 163). The glial markers S100B and glial fibrillary acid protein (GFAP) and the neuronal marker ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase (UCH-L1) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in serum on d 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 poststroke. All biomarkers increased poststroke. Overall, EPO-treated patients had significantly lower concentrations (area under the curve) over 7 d of observation, as reflected by the composite score of all three markers (Cronbach α = 0.811) and by UCH-L1. S100B and GFAP showed a similar tendency. To conclude, serum biomarker profiles, as an outcome measure of brain damage, corroborate an advantageous effect of EPO in ischemic stroke. In particular, reduction in the neuronal damage marker UCH-L1 may reflect neuroprotection by EPO

Hominin track assemblages from Okote Member deposits near Ileret, Kenya, and their implications for understanding fossil hominin paleobiology at 1.5 Ma

Tracks can provide unique, direct records of behaviors of fossil organisms moving across their landscapes millions of years ago. While track discoveries have been rare in the human fossil record, over the last decade our team has uncovered multiple sediment surfaces within the Okote Member of the Koobi Fora Formation near Ileret, Kenya that contain large assemblages of ∼1.5 Ma fossil hominin tracks. Here, we provide detailed information on the context and nature of each of these discoveries, and we outline the specific data that are preserved on the Ileret hominin track surfaces. We analyze previously unpublished data to refine and expand upon earlier hypotheses regarding implications for hominin anatomy and social behavior. While each of the track surfaces discovered at Ileret preserves a different amount of data that must be handled in particular ways, general patterns are evident. Overall, the analyses presented here support earlier interpretations of the ∼1.5 Ma Ileret track assemblages, providing further evidence of large, human-like body sizes and possibly evidence of a group composition that could support the emergence of certain human-like patterns of social behavior. These data, used in concert with other forms of paleontological and archaeological evidence that are deposited on different temporal scales, offer unique windows through which we can broaden our understanding of the paleobiology of hominins living in East Africa at ∼1.5 Ma