Oat variety characteristics for suppressing weeds

Oats are a valuable food source and useful in the crop rotation both in organic and conventional farming systems, partly because of their excellent weed suppression ability. Thomas Döring, Louisa Winkler and Nick Fradgley report new results that show how plant breeding can make oats even better

Vergleich genetisch diverser Brokkoli-Populationssorten mit einer F1-Hybride unter ökologischen Anbaubedingungen

Field trials were conducted for three years on an organic farm in England to assess the performance and yield variability of two synthetic sprouting broccoli populations with 4 or 8 parents respectively, along with the original landrace mother plants and a commercial F1 hybrid variety as control (Santée). In terms of total yield, Santée outperformed the other entries, but for some other traits, e.g. heading time and number of sprouts, Santée was comparable with the mean of one or more of the genetically diverse entries. Analysis of yield variability over time showed mixed results. With regard to total yield and total sprout number, variability was higher in the F1 hybrid than in the genetically diverse populations, but for other parameters such as average sprout weight and time to maturity, patterns were less clear. Using broccoli populations in commercial production will depend on acceptability of within-population variability of phenotypic traits, especially maturation time

Expert Status and Performance

Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1], [2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback

Defining the landscape of circular RNAs in neuroblastoma unveils a global suppressive function of MYCN

Circular RNAs (circRNAs) are a regulatory RNA class. While cancer-driving functions have been identified for single circRNAs, how they modulate gene expression in cancer is not well understood. We investigate circRNA expression in the pediatric malignancy, neuroblastoma, through deep whole-transcriptome sequencing in 104 primary neuroblastomas covering all risk groups. We demonstrate that MYCN amplification, which defines a subset of high-risk cases, causes globally suppressed circRNA biogenesis directly dependent on the DHX9 RNA helicase. We detect similar mechanisms in shaping circRNA expression in the pediatric cancer medulloblastoma implying a general MYCN effect. Comparisons to other cancers identify 25 circRNAs that are specifically upregulated in neuroblastoma, including circARID1A. Transcribed from the ARID1A tumor suppressor gene, circARID1A promotes cell growth and survival, mediated by direct interaction with the KHSRP RNA-binding protein. Our study highlights the importance of MYCN regulating circRNAs in cancer and identifies molecular mechanisms, which explain their contribution to neuroblastoma pathogenesis

Burden of injury along the development spectrum : associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Human Practice. Digital Ecologies. Our Future. : 14. Internationale Tagung Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI 2019) : Tagungsband

Erschienen bei: universi - Universitätsverlag Siegen. - ISBN: 978-3-96182-063-4Aus dem Inhalt: Track 1: Produktion & Cyber-Physische Systeme Requirements and a Meta Model for Exchanging Additive Manufacturing Capacities Service Systems, Smart Service Systems and Cyber- Physical Systems—What’s the difference? Towards a Unified Terminology Developing an Industrial IoT Platform – Trade-off between Horizontal and Vertical Approaches Machine Learning und Complex Event Processing: Effiziente Echtzeitauswertung am Beispiel Smart Factory Sensor retrofit for a coffee machine as condition monitoring and predictive maintenance use case Stakeholder-Analyse zum Einsatz IIoT-basierter Frischeinformationen in der Lebensmittelindustrie Towards a Framework for Predictive Maintenance Strategies in Mechanical Engineering - A Method-Oriented Literature Analysis Development of a matching platform for the requirement-oriented selection of cyber physical systems for SMEs Track 2: Logistic Analytics An Empirical Study of Customers’ Behavioral Intention to Use Ridepooling Services – An Extension of the Technology Acceptance Model Modeling Delay Propagation and Transmission in Railway Networks What is the impact of company specific adjustments on the acceptance and diffusion of logistic standards? Robust Route Planning in Intermodal Urban Traffic Track 3: Unternehmensmodellierung & Informationssystemgestaltung (Enterprise Modelling & Information Systems Design) Work System Modeling Method with Different Levels of Specificity and Rigor for Different Stakeholder Purposes Resolving Inconsistencies in Declarative Process Models based on Culpability Measurement Strategic Analysis in the Realm of Enterprise Modeling – On the Example of Blockchain-Based Initiatives for the Electricity Sector Zwischenbetriebliche Integration in der Möbelbranche: Konfigurationen und Einflussfaktoren Novices’ Quality Perceptions and the Acceptance of Process Modeling Grammars Entwicklung einer Definition für Social Business Objects (SBO) zur Modellierung von Unternehmensinformationen Designing a Reference Model for Digital Product Configurators Terminology for Evolving Design Artifacts Business Role-Object Specification: A Language for Behavior-aware Structural Modeling of Business Objects Generating Smart Glasses-based Information Systems with BPMN4SGA: A BPMN Extension for Smart Glasses Applications Using Blockchain in Peer-to-Peer Carsharing to Build Trust in the Sharing Economy Testing in Big Data: An Architecture Pattern for a Development Environment for Innovative, Integrated and Robust Applications Track 4: Lern- und Wissensmanagement (e-Learning and Knowledge Management) eGovernment Competences revisited – A Literature Review on necessary Competences in a Digitalized Public Sector Say Hello to Your New Automated Tutor – A Structured Literature Review on Pedagogical Conversational Agents Teaching the Digital Transformation of Business Processes: Design of a Simulation Game for Information Systems Education Conceptualizing Immersion for Individual Learning in Virtual Reality Designing a Flipped Classroom Course – a Process Model The Influence of Risk-Taking on Knowledge Exchange and Combination Gamified Feedback durch Avatare im Mobile Learning Alexa, Can You Help Me Solve That Problem? - Understanding the Value of Smart Personal Assistants as Tutors for Complex Problem Tasks Track 5: Data Science & Business Analytics Matching with Bundle Preferences: Tradeoff between Fairness and Truthfulness Applied image recognition: guidelines for using deep learning models in practice Yield Prognosis for the Agrarian Management of Vineyards using Deep Learning for Object Counting Reading Between the Lines of Qualitative Data – How to Detect Hidden Structure Based on Codes Online Auctions with Dual-Threshold Algorithms: An Experimental Study and Practical Evaluation Design Features of Non-Financial Reward Programs for Online Reviews: Evaluation based on Google Maps Data Topic Embeddings – A New Approach to Classify Very Short Documents Based on Predefined Topics Leveraging Unstructured Image Data for Product Quality Improvement Decision Support for Real Estate Investors: Improving Real Estate Valuation with 3D City Models and Points of Interest Knowledge Discovery from CVs: A Topic Modeling Procedure Online Product Descriptions – Boost for your Sales? Entscheidungsunterstützung durch historienbasierte Dienstreihenfolgeplanung mit Pattern A Semi-Automated Approach for Generating Online Review Templates Machine Learning goes Measure Management: Leveraging Anomaly Detection and Parts Search to Improve Product-Cost Optimization Bedeutung von Predictive Analytics für den theoretischen Erkenntnisgewinn in der IS-Forschung Track 6: Digitale Transformation und Dienstleistungen Heuristic Theorizing in Software Development: Deriving Design Principles for Smart Glasses-based Systems Mirroring E-service for Brick and Mortar Retail: An Assessment and Survey Taxonomy of Digital Platforms: A Platform Architecture Perspective Value of Star Players in the Digital Age Local Shopping Platforms – Harnessing Locational Advantages for the Digital Transformation of Local Retail Outlets: A Content Analysis A Socio-Technical Approach to Manage Analytics-as-a-Service – Results of an Action Design Research Project Characterizing Approaches to Digital Transformation: Development of a Taxonomy of Digital Units Expectations vs. Reality – Benefits of Smart Services in the Field of Tension between Industry and Science Innovation Networks and Digital Innovation: How Organizations Use Innovation Networks in a Digitized Environment Characterising Social Reading Platforms— A Taxonomy-Based Approach to Structure the Field Less Complex than Expected – What Really Drives IT Consulting Value Modularity Canvas – A Framework for Visualizing Potentials of Service Modularity Towards a Conceptualization of Capabilities for Innovating Business Models in the Industrial Internet of Things A Taxonomy of Barriers to Digital Transformation Ambidexterity in Service Innovation Research: A Systematic Literature Review Design and success factors of an online solution for cross-pillar pension information Track 7: IT-Management und -Strategie A Frugal Support Structure for New Software Implementations in SMEs How to Structure a Company-wide Adoption of Big Data Analytics The Changing Roles of Innovation Actors and Organizational Antecedents in the Digital Age Bewertung des Kundennutzens von Chatbots für den Einsatz im Servicedesk Understanding the Benefits of Agile Software Development in Regulated Environments Are Employees Following the Rules? On the Effectiveness of IT Consumerization Policies Agile and Attached: The Impact of Agile Practices on Agile Team Members’ Affective Organisational Commitment The Complexity Trap – Limits of IT Flexibility for Supporting Organizational Agility in Decentralized Organizations Platform Openness: A Systematic Literature Review and Avenues for Future Research Competence, Fashion and the Case of Blockchain The Digital Platform Otto.de: A Case Study of Growth, Complexity, and Generativity Track 8: eHealth & alternde Gesellschaft Security and Privacy of Personal Health Records in Cloud Computing Environments – An Experimental Exploration of the Impact of Storage Solutions and Data Breaches Patientenintegration durch Pfadsysteme Digitalisierung in der Stressprävention – eine qualitative Interviewstudie zu Nutzenpotenzialen User Dynamics in Mental Health Forums – A Sentiment Analysis Perspective Intent and the Use of Wearables in the Workplace – A Model Development Understanding Patient Pathways in the Context of Integrated Health Care Services - Implications from a Scoping Review Understanding the Habitual Use of Wearable Activity Trackers On the Fit in Fitness Apps: Studying the Interaction of Motivational Affordances and Users’ Goal Orientations in Affecting the Benefits Gained Gamification in Health Behavior Change Support Systems - A Synthesis of Unintended Side Effects Investigating the Influence of Information Incongruity on Trust-Relations within Trilateral Healthcare Settings Track 9: Krisen- und Kontinuitätsmanagement Potentiale von IKT beim Ausfall kritischer Infrastrukturen: Erwartungen, Informationsgewinnung und Mediennutzung der Zivilbevölkerung in Deutschland Fake News Perception in Germany: A Representative Study of People’s Attitudes and Approaches to Counteract Disinformation Analyzing the Potential of Graphical Building Information for Fire Emergency Responses: Findings from a Controlled Experiment Track 10: Human-Computer Interaction Towards a Taxonomy of Platforms for Conversational Agent Design Measuring Service Encounter Satisfaction with Customer Service Chatbots using Sentiment Analysis Self-Tracking and Gamification: Analyzing the Interplay of Motivations, Usage and Motivation Fulfillment Erfolgsfaktoren von Augmented-Reality-Applikationen: Analyse von Nutzerrezensionen mit dem Review-Mining-Verfahren Designing Dynamic Decision Support for Electronic Requirements Negotiations Who is Stressed by Using ICTs? A Qualitative Comparison Analysis with the Big Five Personality Traits to Understand Technostress Walking the Middle Path: How Medium Trade-Off Exposure Leads to Higher Consumer Satisfaction in Recommender Agents Theory-Based Affordances of Utilitarian, Hedonic and Dual-Purposed Technologies: A Literature Review Eliciting Customer Preferences for Shopping Companion Apps: A Service Quality Approach The Role of Early User Participation in Discovering Software – A Case Study from the Context of Smart Glasses The Fluidity of the Self-Concept as a Framework to Explain the Motivation to Play Video Games Heart over Heels? An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Emotions and Review Helpfulness for Experience and Credence Goods Track 11: Information Security and Information Privacy Unfolding Concerns about Augmented Reality Technologies: A Qualitative Analysis of User Perceptions To (Psychologically) Own Data is to Protect Data: How Psychological Ownership Determines Protective Behavior in a Work and Private Context Understanding Data Protection Regulations from a Data Management Perspective: A Capability-Based Approach to EU-GDPR On the Difficulties of Incentivizing Online Privacy through Transparency: A Qualitative Survey of the German Health Insurance Market What is Your Selfie Worth? A Field Study on Individuals’ Valuation of Personal Data Justification of Mass Surveillance: A Quantitative Study An Exploratory Study of Risk Perception for Data Disclosure to a Network of Firms Track 12: Umweltinformatik und nachhaltiges Wirtschaften Kommunikationsfäden im Nadelöhr – Fachliche Prozessmodellierung der Nachhaltigkeitskommunikation am Kapitalmarkt Potentiale und Herausforderungen der Materialflusskostenrechnung Computing Incentives for User-Based Relocation in Carsharing Sustainability’s Coming Home: Preliminary Design Principles for the Sustainable Smart District Substitution of hazardous chemical substances using Deep Learning and t-SNE A Hierarchy of DSMLs in Support of Product Life-Cycle Assessment A Survey of Smart Energy Services for Private Households Door-to-Door Mobility Integrators as Keystone Organizations of Smart Ecosystems: Resources and Value Co-Creation – A Literature Review Ein Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem zur ökonomischen Bewertung von Mieterstrom auf Basis der Clusteranalyse Discovering Blockchain for Sustainable Product-Service Systems to enhance the Circular Economy Digitale Rückverfolgbarkeit von Lebensmitteln: Eine verbraucherinformatische Studie Umweltbewusstsein durch audiovisuelles Content Marketing? Eine experimentelle Untersuchung zur Konsumentenbewertung nachhaltiger Smartphones Towards Predictive Energy Management in Information Systems: A Research Proposal A Web Browser-Based Application for Processing and Analyzing Material Flow Models using the MFCA Methodology Track 13: Digital Work - Social, mobile, smart On Conversational Agents in Information Systems Research: Analyzing the Past to Guide Future Work The Potential of Augmented Reality for Improving Occupational First Aid Prevent a Vicious Circle! The Role of Organizational IT-Capability in Attracting IT-affine Applicants Good, Bad, or Both? Conceptualization and Measurement of Ambivalent User Attitudes Towards AI A Case Study on Cross-Hierarchical Communication in Digital Work Environments ‘Show Me Your People Skills’ - Employing CEO Branding for Corporate Reputation Management in Social Media A Multiorganisational Study of the Drivers and Barriers of Enterprise Collaboration Systems-Enabled Change The More the Merrier? The Effect of Size of Core Team Subgroups on Success of Open Source Projects The Impact of Anthropomorphic and Functional Chatbot Design Features in Enterprise Collaboration Systems on User Acceptance Digital Feedback for Digital Work? Affordances and Constraints of a Feedback App at InsurCorp The Effect of Marker-less Augmented Reality on Task and Learning Performance Antecedents for Cyberloafing – A Literature Review Internal Crowd Work as a Source of Empowerment - An Empirical Analysis of the Perception of Employees in a Crowdtesting Project Track 14: Geschäftsmodelle und digitales Unternehmertum Dividing the ICO Jungle: Extracting and Evaluating Design Archetypes Capturing Value from Data: Exploring Factors Influencing Revenue Model Design for Data-Driven Services Understanding the Role of Data for Innovating Business Models: A System Dynamics Perspective Business Model Innovation and Stakeholder: Exploring Mechanisms and Outcomes of Value Creation and Destruction Business Models for Internet of Things Platforms: Empirical Development of a Taxonomy and Archetypes Revitalizing established Industrial Companies: State of the Art and Success Principles of Digital Corporate Incubators When 1+1 is Greater than 2: Concurrence of Additional Digital and Established Business Models within Companies Special Track 1: Student Track Investigating Personalized Price Discrimination of Textile-, Electronics- and General Stores in German Online Retail From Facets to a Universal Definition – An Analysis of IoT Usage in Retail Is the Technostress Creators Inventory Still an Up-To-Date Measurement Instrument? Results of a Large-Scale Interview Study Application of Media Synchronicity Theory to Creative Tasks in Virtual Teams Using the Example of Design Thinking TrustyTweet: An Indicator-based Browser-Plugin to Assist Users in Dealing with Fake News on Twitter Application of Process Mining Techniques to Support Maintenance-Related Objectives How Voice Can Change Customer Satisfaction: A Comparative Analysis between E-Commerce and Voice Commerce Business Process Compliance and Blockchain: How Does the Ethereum Blockchain Address Challenges of Business Process Compliance? Improving Business Model Configuration through a Question-based Approach The Influence of Situational Factors and Gamification on Intrinsic Motivation and Learning Evaluation von ITSM-Tools für Integration und Management von Cloud-Diensten am Beispiel von ServiceNow How Software Promotes the Integration of Sustainability in Business Process Management Criteria Catalog for Industrial IoT Platforms from the Perspective of the Machine Tool Industry Special Track 3: Demos & Prototyping Privacy-friendly User Location Tracking with Smart Devices: The BeaT Prototype Application-oriented robotics in nursing homes Augmented Reality for Set-up Processe Mixed Reality for supporting Remote-Meetings Gamification zur Motivationssteigerung von Werkern bei der Betriebsdatenerfassung Automatically Extracting and Analyzing Customer Needs from Twitter: A “Needmining” Prototype GaNEsHA: Opportunities for Sustainable Transportation in Smart Cities TUCANA: A platform for using local processing power of edge devices for building data-driven services Demonstrator zur Beschreibung und Visualisierung einer kritischen Infrastruktur Entwicklung einer alltagsnahen persuasiven App zur Bewegungsmotivation für ältere Nutzerinnen und Nutzer A browser-based modeling tool for studying the learning of conceptual modeling based on a multi-modal data collection approach Exergames & Dementia: An interactive System for People with Dementia and their Care-Network Workshops Workshop Ethics and Morality in Business Informatics (Workshop Ethik und Moral in der Wirtschaftsinformatik – EMoWI’19) Model-Based Compliance in Information Systems - Foundations, Case Description and Data Set of the MobIS-Challenge for Students and Doctoral Candidates Report of the Workshop on Concepts and Methods of Identifying Digital Potentials in Information Management Control of Systemic Risks in Global Networks - A Grand Challenge to Information Systems Research Die Mitarbeiter von morgen - Kompetenzen künftiger Mitarbeiter im Bereich Business Analytics Digitaler Konsum: Herausforderungen und Chancen der Verbraucherinformati

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress