Evaluation of trends in derived snowfall and rainfall across Eurasia and linkages with discharge to the Arctic Ocean

To more fully understand the role of precipitation in observed increases in freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean, data from a new archive of bias-adjusted precipitation records for the former USSR (TD9813), along with the CRU and Willmott-Matsuura data sets, were examined for the period 1936–1999. Across the six largest Eurasian river basins, snowfall derived from TD9813 exhibits a strongly significant increase until the late 1950s and a moderately significant decrease thereafter. A strongly significant decline in derived rainfall is also noted. Spatially, snowfall increases are found primarily across north-central Eurasia, an area where the rainfall decreases are most prominent. Although no significant change is determined in Eurasian-basin snowfall over the entire 64 year period, we note that interpolation from early, uneven station networks causes an overestimation of spatial precipitation, and that the local snowfall trends determined from gridded TD9813 data are likely underestimated. Yet, numerous uncertainties in historical Arctic climate data and the sparse, irregular nature of Arctic station networks preclude a confident assessment of precipitation-discharge linkages during the period of reported discharge trends

Statistical analysis plan for the ‘Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke’ (ENOS) trial

High blood pressure is common during the acute phase of stroke and is associated with a poor outcome. However, the management of high blood pressure remains unclear. The ‘Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke’ trial tested whether transdermal glyceryl trinitrate, a nitric oxide donor that lowers blood pressure, is safe and effective in improving outcome after acute stroke. Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke is an international multicenter, prospective, randomized, single-blind, blinded endpoint trial, with funding from the UK Medical Research Council. Patients with acute ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage and systolic blood pressure 140–220 mmHg were randomized to glyceryl trinitrate or no glyceryl trinitrate and, where relevant, to continue or stop prestrike antihypertensive therapy. The primary outcome is shift in modified Rankin Scale at three-months. Patients or relatives gave written informed (proxy) consent, and all sites had research ethics approval. Analyses will be done by intention to treat. This paper and attachment describe the trial’s statistical analysis plan, developed prior to unblinding of date. The statistical analysis plan contains design and methods for analyses, and unpopulated tables and figures for the two primary publications and some secondary publications. The database will be locked in late February 2014 in preparation for presentation of the results in May 2014. The data from the trial will improve the precision of the estimates of the overall treatment effects (efficacy and safety) of results from completed trials of blood pressure management in acute stroke, and provide the first large-scale randomized evidence on transdermal glyceryl trinitrate, and of continuing (vs. stopping) prestroke antihypertensive medications, in acute stroke

Intracerebral implantation of human neural stem cells and motor recovery after stroke: multicentre prospective single-arm study (PISCES-2)

Background Human neural stem cell implantation may offer improved recovery from stroke. We investigated the feasibility of intracerebral implantation of the allogeneic human neural stem cell line CTX0E03 in the subacute—chronic recovery phase of stroke and potential measures of therapeutic response in a multicentre study. Methods We undertook a prospective, multicentre, single-arm, open-label study in adults aged >40 years with significant upper limb motor deficits 2–13 months after ischaemic stroke. 20 million cells were implanted by stereotaxic injection to the putamen ipsilateral to the cerebral infarct. The primary outcome was improvement by 2 or more points on the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) subtest 2 at 3 months after implantation. Findings Twenty-three patients underwent cell implantation at eight UK hospitals a median of 7 months after stroke. One of 23 participants improved by the prespecified ARAT subtest level at 3 months, and three participants at 6 and 12 months. Improvement in ARAT was seen only in those with residual upper limb movement at baseline. Transient procedural adverse effects were seen, but no cell-related adverse events occurred up to 12 months of follow-up. Two deaths were unrelated to trial procedures. Interpretation Administration of human neural stem cells by intracerebral implantation is feasible in a multicentre study. Improvements in upper limb function occurred at 3, 6 and 12 months, but not in those with absent upper limb movement at baseline, suggesting a possible target population for future controlled trials. Funding ReNeuron, Innovate UK (application no 32074-222145). Trial registration number EudraCT Number: 2012-003482-1

Publication Bias in Reports of Animal Stroke Studies Leads to Major Overstatement of Efficacy

Publication bias confounds attempts to use systematic reviews to assess the efficacy of various interventions tested in experiments modelling acute ischaemic stroke, leading to a 30% overstatement of efficacy of interventions tested in animals

An improvement of the Berry--Esseen inequality with applications to Poisson and mixed Poisson random sums

By a modification of the method that was applied in (Korolev and Shevtsova, 2009), here the inequalities $$\rho(F_n,\Phi)\le\frac{0.335789(\beta^3+0.425)}{\sqrt{n}}$$ and $$\rho(F_n,\Phi)\le \frac{0.3051(\beta^3+1)}{\sqrt{n}}$$ are proved for the uniform distance $\rho(F_n,\Phi)$ between the standard normal distribution function $\Phi$ and the distribution function $F_n$ of the normalized sum of an arbitrary number $n\ge1$ of independent identically distributed random variables with zero mean, unit variance and finite third absolute moment $\beta^3$. The first of these inequalities sharpens the best known version of the classical Berry--Esseen inequality since $0.335789(\beta^3+0.425)\le0.335789(1+0.425)\beta^3<0.4785\beta^3$ by virtue of the condition $\beta^3\ge1$, and 0.4785 is the best known upper estimate of the absolute constant in the classical Berry--Esseen inequality. The second inequality is applied to lowering the upper estimate of the absolute constant in the analog of the Berry--Esseen inequality for Poisson random sums to 0.3051 which is strictly less than the least possible value of the absolute constant in the classical Berry--Esseen inequality. As a corollary, the estimates of the rate of convergence in limit theorems for compound mixed Poisson distributions are refined.Comment: 33 page

Therapeutic potential of transdermal glyceryl trinitrate in the management of acute stroke

The nitric oxide donor, glyceryl trinitrate (GTN), is a candidate treatment for the management of acute stroke with haemodynamic and potential reperfusion and neuroprotective effects. When administered as a transdermal patch during the acute and subacute phases after stroke, GTN was safe, lowered blood pressure, maintained cerebral blood flow, and did not induce cerebral steal or alter functional outcome. However, when given within 6 h of stroke onset, GTN reduced death and dependency (odds ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval 0.34–0.78), death, disability, cognitive impairment and mood disturbance, and improved quality of life (data from two trials, n = 312). In a pooled analysis of four studies (n = 186), GTN reduced between-visit systolic blood pressure variability over days 1–7 compared with no GTN (mean difference -2.09; 95% confidence interval -3.83 to -0.35; p = 0.019). The efficacy of GTN given in the ultra-acute/pre-hospital setting is currently being assessed and, if found to be beneficial, the implications for hyperacute stroke practice are significant. Here, we discuss the evidence to date, potential mechanisms of action and future possibilities, including unanswered questions, for the therapeutic potential of GTN in acute stroke

Can Animal Models of Disease Reliably Inform Human Studies?

H. Bart van der Worp and colleagues discuss the controversies and possibilities of translating the results of animal experiments into human clinical trials

Continuing versus stopping prestroke antihypertensive therapy in acute intracerebral hemorrhage: a subgroup analysis of the efficacy of nitric oxide in stroke trial

Background and purpose: More than 50% of patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) are taking antihypertensive drugs before ictus. Although antihypertensive therapy should be given long term for secondary prevention, whether to continue or stop such treatment during the acute phase of ICH remains unclear, a question that was addressed in the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) trial. Methods: ENOS was an international multicenter, prospective, randomized, blinded endpoint trial. Among 629 patients with ICH and systolic blood pressure between 140 and 220 mmHg, 246 patients who were taking antihypertensive drugs were assigned to continue (n = 119) or to stop (n = 127) taking drugs temporarily for 7 days. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Score at 90 days. Secondary outcomes included death, length of stay in hospital, discharge destination, activities of daily living, mood, cognition, and quality of life. Results: Blood pressure level (baseline 171/92 mmHg) fell in both groups but was significantly lower at 7 days in those patients assigned to continue antihypertensive drugs (difference 9.4/3.5 mmHg, P < .01). At 90 days, the primary outcome did not differ between the groups; the adjusted common odds ratio (OR) for worse outcome with continue versus stop drugs was .92 (95% confidence interval, .45- 1.89; P = .83). There was no difference between the treatment groups for any secondary outcome measure, or rates of death or serious adverse events. Conclusions: Among patients with acute ICH, immediate continuation of antihypertensive drugs during the first week did not reduce death or major disability in comparison to stopping treatment temporarily