The appropriate use of climatic information in Illinois natural-gas utility weather-normalization techniques

"ISWS/RI-112/90"--Cover.Includes bibliographical references.Enumeration continues through succeeding title

Improving the validation of model-simulated crop yield response to climate change: an application to the EPIC model* Jour. Ser. No. 11339 Nebraska Ag. Res. Div.

Crop models have been used extensively to simulate yield response to various scenarios of climate change. Such simulations have been inadequately validated, limiting their utility in policy analysis. In this research, it is argued that the performance of crop models during recent years of extreme weather conditions relative to current normals may give a better indication of the validity of model simulations of crop yields in response to climate change than performance during the full range of climate conditions (as is done now). Twenty years of the climate record (1971-1990) are separated into different growing season temperature and precipitation classes (normal years, hot/cold extremes, wet/dry extremes) for 7weather stations in eastern Nebraska, USA. The Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC), a crop growth model, is used to simulate crop yields with each of the above weather classes. Statistical comparisons are made between simulated yields, observed yields and observed yields detrended of technology influences. Based on these comparisons, we conclude that EPIC reliably simulates crop yields under temperature extremes, some which approach the types of climate conditions that may become more frequent with climate change. Simulations with precipitation extremes are less reliable than with the temperature extremes but are argued still to be credible. Confidence in crop simulations during years mimicking climate warming scenarios appears warranted

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Land Cover and Rainfall Interact to Shape Waterbird Community Composition

Human land cover can degrade estuaries directly through habitat loss and fragmentation or indirectly through nutrient inputs that reduce water quality. Strong precipitation events are occurring more frequently, causing greater hydrological connectivity between watersheds and estuaries. Nutrient enrichment and dissolved oxygen depletion that occur following these events are known to limit populations of benthic macroinvertebrates and commercially harvested species, but the consequences for top consumers such as birds remain largely unknown. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) and structural equation modeling (SEM) to understand how land cover and annual variation in rainfall interact to shape waterbird community composition in Chesapeake Bay, USA. The MDS ordination indicated that urban subestuaries shifted from a mixed generalist-specialist community in 2002, a year of severe drought, to generalist-dominated community in 2003, of year of high rainfall. The SEM revealed that this change was concurrent with a sixfold increase in nitrate-N concentration in subestuaries. In the drought year of 2002, waterbird community composition depended only on the direct effect of urban development in watersheds. In the wet year of 2003, community composition depended both on this direct effect and on indirect effects associated with high nitrate-N inputs to northern parts of the Bay, particularly in urban subestuaries. Our findings suggest that increased runoff during periods of high rainfall can depress water quality enough to alter the composition of estuarine waterbird communities, and that this effect is compounded in subestuaries dominated by urban development. Estuarine restoration programs often chart progress by monitoring stressors and indicators, but rarely assess multivariate relationships among them. Estuarine management planning could be improved by tracking the structure of relationships among land cover, water quality, and waterbirds. Unraveling these complex relationships may help managers identify and mitigate ecological thresholds that occur with increasing human land cover

March Mammal Madness and the power of narrative in science outreach.

March Mammal Madness is a science outreach project that, over the course of several weeks in March, reaches hundreds of thousands of people in the United States every year. We combine four approaches to science outreach - gamification, social media platforms, community event(s), and creative products - to run a simulated tournament in which 64 animals compete to become the tournament champion. While the encounters between the animals are hypothetical, the outcomes rely on empirical evidence from the scientific literature. Players select their favored combatants beforehand, and during the tournament scientists translate the academic literature into gripping "play-by-play" narration on social media. To date ~1100 scholarly works, covering almost 400 taxa, have been transformed into science stories. March Mammal Madness is most typically used by high-school educators teaching life sciences, and we estimate that our materials reached ~1% of high-school students in the United States in 2019. Here we document the intentional design, public engagement, and magnitude of reach of the project. We further explain how human psychological and cognitive adaptations for shared experiences, social learning, narrative, and imagery contribute to the widespread use of March Mammal Madness

Effects of Anacetrapib in Patients with Atherosclerotic Vascular Disease

BACKGROUND: Patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease remain at high risk for cardiovascular events despite effective statin-based treatment of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels. The inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) by anacetrapib reduces LDL cholesterol levels and increases high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels. However, trials of other CETP inhibitors have shown neutral or adverse effects on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 30,449 adults with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive atorvastatin therapy and who had a mean LDL cholesterol level of 61 mg per deciliter (1.58 mmol per liter), a mean non-HDL cholesterol level of 92 mg per deciliter (2.38 mmol per liter), and a mean HDL cholesterol level of 40 mg per deciliter (1.03 mmol per liter). The patients were assigned to receive either 100 mg of anacetrapib once daily (15,225 patients) or matching placebo (15,224 patients). The primary outcome was the first major coronary event, a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, the primary outcome occurred in significantly fewer patients in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (1640 of 15,225 patients [10.8%] vs. 1803 of 15,224 patients [11.8%]; rate ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.97; P=0.004). The relative difference in risk was similar across multiple prespecified subgroups. At the trial midpoint, the mean level of HDL cholesterol was higher by 43 mg per deciliter (1.12 mmol per liter) in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (a relative difference of 104%), and the mean level of non-HDL cholesterol was lower by 17 mg per deciliter (0.44 mmol per liter), a relative difference of -18%. There were no significant between-group differences in the risk of death, cancer, or other serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive statin therapy, the use of anacetrapib resulted in a lower incidence of major coronary events than the use of placebo. (Funded by Merck and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN48678192 ; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01252953 ; and EudraCT number, 2010-023467-18 .)

G96-1311 Global Warming: What is Known and Why Nebraska Agriculture Should Care

The purpose of this NebGuide is to review the facts of global warming, to point out what is sheer speculation, and to suggest why Nebraska agriculture should care about global warming. Climatologists talk about global warming one year and the next year they talk about global cooling! Depending on the time periods involved, both views may be correct. Over the next few hundred years, the earth may undergo a general cooling trend. This trend is consistent with the regular shifts into and out of ice age conditions that have characterized the earth\u27s climate history of the last 50,000 years. However, in the much more immediate future (100 years or less), the earth\u27s climate may respond to the so-called greenhouse effect, rather than the shift into cooler conditions, which may lead to warmer temperatures globally. Some scientists say that global warming will lead to far more frequent droughts and heat waves in the Great Plains and that the major grain belts will shift northwards. Others say that, even if the climate warms, farmers will adapt so easily that no one will ever notice. The only certainty is that no one knows exactly what is going to happen to the earth\u27s climate over the next few decades. Also, a winter that is strangely cold and snowy and followed by a summer that is cool and wet does not disprove the existence of long-term global warming. A balmy winter followed by a hot, dry summer does not prove the existence of global warming. Global warming, if it occurs, will play out over a long period of time

CHAPTER 37 DROUGHT POLICY: TOWARD A PLAN OF ACTION

From the preceding discussions it is clear that in most cases, governments and international organizations have been unable to respond effectively to drought. This inability to respond was recognized by workshop participants as a serious problem of global dimensions that can only be solved through interdisciplinary studies and cooperation between scientists and policy makers

Consensus clinical practice guidelines

Clinical guidelines have developed to some extent as a direct extension of the liability issue, a point made earlier by Dr Kenneth Ryan. In this case, one could consider that it was a defensive move to avoid liability on the one hand, but a pro-active move, on the other, to assure quality in certain clinical circumstances. The clinical guidelines are also an extension of the quality assurance and medical audit initiatives of a decade ago, and most recently an element in the continuous quality improvement (CQI) programmes in American medicine. I would suggest that they are also a response to the increasing pressure to contain costs of health care in our country. In some respects, physicians have regarded all three vehicles as intrusions into the practice of medicine, in many ways controlling, and all have tended to galvanize US physicians against the notion that clinical guidelines can have a positive effect on health care. Here, it is important to make two additional points: the first is that clinical guidelines developed in the current medical legal and 'accountability' climate are going almost immediately to become standards. The second point (a personal opinion) is that physicians do not solve problems algorithmically, thus making it difficult for them to accept guidelines in that format. On the other hand, algorithms used repeatedly can become 'experience' and fit more naturally into the problem solving methods commonly used by most physicians