Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping in Livelihood Vulnerability Analysis

Feedback mechanisms are important in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems, as well as in the analysis of livelihoods, but how to evaluate systems with direct feedbacks has been a great challenge. We applied fuzzy cognitive mapping, a tool that allows analysis of both direct and indirect feedbacks and can be used to explore the vulnerabilities of livelihoods to identified hazards. We studied characteristics and drivers of rural livelihoods in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area in southern Africa to assess the vulnerability of inhabitants to the different hazards they face. The process involved four steps: (1) surveys and interviews to identify the major livelihood types; (2) description of specific livelihood types in a system format using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative tool that models systems based on people’s knowledge; (3) linking variables and drivers in FCMs by attaching weights; and (4) defining and applying scenarios to visualize the effects of drought and changing park boundaries on cash and household food security. FCMs successfully gave information concerning the nature (increase or decrease) and magnitude by which a livelihood system changed under different scenarios. However, they did not explain the recovery path in relation to time and pattern (e.g., how long it takes for cattle to return to desired numbers after a drought). Using FCMs revealed that issues of policy, such as changing situations at borders, can strongly aggravate effects of climate change such as drought. FCMs revealed hidden knowledge and gave insights that improved the understanding of the complexity of livelihood systems in a way that is better appreciated by stakeholders

Managing soil fertility diversity to enhance resource use efficiencies in smallholder farming systems: a case from Murewa District, Zimbabwe

Smallholder farms in sub-Saharan African exhibit substantial heterogeneity in soil fertility, and nutrient resource allocation strategies that address this variability are required to increase nutrient use efficiencies. We applied the Field-scale resource Interactions, use Efficiencies and Long-term soil fertility Development (FIELD) model to explore consequences of various manure and fertilizer application strategies on crop productivity and soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics on farms varying in resource endowment in a case study village in Murewa District, Zimbabwe. FIELD simulated a rapid decline in SOC and maize yields when native woodlands were cleared for maize cultivation without fertilizer inputs coupled with removal of crop residues. Applications of 10 t manure ha-1 year-1 for 10 years were required to restore maize productivity to the yields attainable under native woodland. Long-term application of manure at 5 and 3 t ha-1 resulted in SOC contents comparable to zones of high and medium soil fertility observed on farms of wealthy cattle owners. Targeting manure application to restore SOC to 50–60% of contents under native woodlands was sufficient to increase productivity to 90% of attainable yields. Short-term increases in crop productivity achieved by reallocating manure to less fertile fields were short-lived on sandy soils. Preventing degradation of the soils under intensive cultivation is difficult, particularly in low input farming systems, and attention should be paid to judicious use of the limited nutrient resources to maintain a degree of soil fertility that supports good crop response to fertilizer applicatio

Competing Claims on Natural Resources: What Role for Science?

Competing claims on natural resources become increasingly acute, with the poor being most vulnerable to adverse outcomes of such competition. A major challenge for science and policy is to progress from facilitating univocal use to guiding stakeholders in dealing with potentially conflicting uses of natural resources. The development of novel, more equitable, management options that reduce rural poverty is key to achieving sustainable use of natural resources and the resolution of conflicts over them. Here, we describe an interdisciplinary and interactive approach for: (i) the understanding of competing claims and stakeholder objectives; (ii) the identification of alternative resource use options, and (iii) the scientific support to negotiation processes between stakeholders. Central to the outlined approach is a shifted perspective on the role of scientific knowledge in society. Understanding scientific knowledge as entering societal arenas and as fundamentally negotiated, the role of the scientist becomes a more modest one, a contributor to ongoing negotiation processes among stakeholders. Scientists can, therefore, not merely describe and explain resource-use dynamics and competing claims, but in doing so, they should actively contribute to negotiation processes between stakeholders operating at different scales (local, national, regional, and global). Together with stakeholders, they explore alternatives that can contribute to more sustainable and equitable use of natural resources and, where possible, design new technical options and institutional arrangements

Simulating potential growth and yield of oil palm with PALMSIM

The growing demand for palm oil can be met by reducing the gap between potential yield and actual yield. Simulation models can quantify potential yield, and therefore indicate the scope for intensification. A relatively simple physiological approach was used to develop PALMSIM, which is a model that simulates, on a monthly time step, the potential growth of oil palm as determined by solar radiation in high rainfall environments. The model was used to map potential yield for Indonesia and Malaysia. This map could be used to identify degraded areas that have high yield potential for oil palm

Measurement of the Atmospheric Muon Spectrum from 20 to 3000 GeV

The absolute muon flux between 20 GeV and 3000 GeV is measured with the L3 magnetic muon spectrometer for zenith angles ranging from 0 degree to 58 degree. Due to the large exposure of about 150 m2 sr d, and the excellent momentum resolution of the L3 muon chambers, a precision of 2.3 % at 150 GeV in the vertical direction is achieved. The ratio of positive to negative muons is studied between 20 GeV and 500 GeV, and the average vertical muon charge ratio is found to be 1.285 +- 0.003 (stat.) +- 0.019 (syst.).Comment: Total 32 pages, 9Figure